The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 12, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: HOU is 11-3 (+4.05 units) as a home day game favorite of -150 or higher by starter Framber Valdez
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-265 vs OAK)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (10-41, -29.97 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at WSH)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1670-1570 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -206.07 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs. MIL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
 In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 114-64 for -28.55 units and an ROI of -16%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-265 vs. OAK), NY YANKEES (-192 vs. BOS), DETROIT (-305 vs. COL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-265 vs. OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-310 vs. COL), HOUSTON (-265 vs. OAK)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-310 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 114-64 for -28.55 units and a ROI of -16%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-265 vs. OAK), NY YANKEES (-192 vs. BOS), DETROIT (-305 vs. COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is 67-39 since opening day 2024 and has lost -18.46 units, an ROI of -17.4%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-192 vs BOS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 321-403 record for -32.46 units (ROI -4.5%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+150 at WSH)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For ’24 so far, these two-game teams have gone 170-208 for -39.47 units (-10.4% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-87 for -3.75 units (-2.2% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE OAKLAND (+215 at HOU) 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 172 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/11 and these teams are 99-73 for +12.98 units (7.5% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-265 vs. OAK)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1670-1570 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -206.07 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs. MIL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1587-2028 (43.9%) for -176.04 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+150 at WSH), TAMPA BAY (+124 at CLE), CINCINNATI (+140 at STL), MILWAUKEE (-130 at SF) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3368-2957 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -453.93 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs. TB), DETROIT (-298 vs. COL), WASHINGTON (-180 vs. MIA), SEATTLE (-142 vs. TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (+110 vs. MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +150 (+15 diff), OAKLAND +215 (+30 diff), TAMPA BAY +124 (+15 diff), BOSTON +160 (+15 diff), COLORADO +245 (+40 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -142 (+24 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEX-SEA OVER 6.5 (+0.7), BOS-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) CINCINNATI (71-76) at (902) ST LOUIS (73-72)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (23-32, -10.86 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+140 at STL)

(903) MIAMI (54-92) at (904) WASHINGTON (65-80)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (10-41, -29.97 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+150 at WSH) 

(907) OAKLAND (64-82) at (908) HOUSTON (77-68)
Trend: HOU slight Under during the day (19-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8) 

(909) TAMPA BAY (71-75) at (910) CLEVELAND (84-62)
Trend: TB trending Under vs. AL Central/West (21-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(911) BOSTON (74-72) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (84-62)
Trend: BOS worse vs. LH starters (17-24, -10.27 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+160 at NYY)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(907) OAKLAND (64-82) at (908) HOUSTON (77-68)
Trend: HOU is 11-3 (+4.05 units) as a home day game favorite of -150 or higher by starter Framber Valdez
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-265 vs. OAK)

(911) BOSTON (74-72) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (84-62)
Trend: NYY is 15-4 (+5.44 units) at home as a large favorite of -185 or more with starter Nestor Cortes in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-192 vs. BOS)

Series #1: Oakland at Houston, Tue 9/10 – Thu 9/12
Trend: Oakland is 9-23 (28.1%, -6.65 units) in its last 32 games vs. Houston.
– The ROI on this trend is -20.8%.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+215 at HOU)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 9-21 (30%) -13.08 units, ROI: -43.6% 
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 9/12 vs. Miami
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (-180 vs. MIA)Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

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