The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, September 16, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board. 

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Sean Manaea is 11-0 (+11.00 units) as a home favorite of -180 or more in the last six seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-192 vs. WSH)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 174 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/15 and these teams are 101-73 for +14.98 units (8.6% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+114 vs. STL), LA ANGELS (-192 vs. CWS)

SD momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 19-11 (63.3%) +9.38 units, ROI: 31.3%    
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-125 vs. HOU)

Trend: PHI is 13-3 (+8.20 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-112 at MIL)

Trend: Over the total is 9-2-1 this season when CLE is a home underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in MIN-CLE (o/u at 7.5)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs. OAK), SAN DIEGO (-125 vs. HOU)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:

–  Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
–  Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
–  Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-192 vs WSH) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-105 vs. MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs. OAK), SAN DIEGO (-125 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 118-67 for -31.50 units and an ROI of -17%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-192 vs. WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs. OAK), LA ANGELS (-192 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there’s was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is 68-39 since opening day 2024 and has lost -17.46 units, an ROI of -16.3%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-192 vs. WSH), LA ANGELS (-192 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 332-412 record, for -27.58 units (ROI -3.7%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-102 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (-108 vs. PHI), ST LOUIS (+114 vs. PIT), CLEVELAND (-105 vs. MIN), DETROIT (+120 at KC) 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely 
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 295-321 record, for +3.61 units (ROI 0.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-102 vs. LAD), MILWAUKEE (-108 vs. PHI), ST LOUIS (+114 vs. PIT), CLEVELAND (-105 vs. MIN), DETROIT (+120 at KC)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 173-211 for -40.68 units (-10.6% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-91 for -8.72 units (-5% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at MIL), FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 at LAA)
3+ games – FADE WASHINGTON (+160 at NYM)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 174 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/15 and these teams are 101-73 for +14.98 units (8.6% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (+114 vs. STL), LA ANGELS (-192 vs. CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 365-341 (51.7%) for +34.91 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.9%.
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-102 vs LAD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1671-1577 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -212.30 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-118 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (-108 vs. PHI), ARIZONA (-175 at COL), MINNESOTA (-115 at CLE) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1595-2036 (43.9%) for -174.60 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-112 at MIL) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3377-2967 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -460.92 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs. OAK), MILWAUKEE (-108 vs. PHI)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 951-825 (53.5%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +12.75 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-102 vs. LAD), COLORADO (+145 vs. AZ) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 151-167 (+7.01 units, ROI: 2.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-192 vs. CWS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +150 (+20 diff), CLEVELAND -105 (+35 diff), OAKLAND +170 (+15 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -118 (+17 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-ATL OVER 7.5 (+0.8), PIT-STL OVER 7 (+0.7)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-CHC UNDER 8 (-1.3), CWS-LAA UNDER 8 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-61) at (904) ATLANTA (81-68)
Trend: ATL trending UNDER at HOME (23-49 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(905) PHILADELPHIA (90-59) at (906) MILWAUKEE (86-63)
Trend: MIL not as good vs LH starters (19-23, -10.35 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-108 vs PHI) 

(907) PITTSBURGH (71-78) at (908) ST LOUIS (74-75)
Trend: STL pretty good bet as HOME underdog (17-11 record)
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 vs PIT)

(909) ARIZONA (83-66) at (910) COLORADO (57-93)
Trend: AZ trending OVER vs divisional teams (30-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 11.5)

(911) MINNESOTA (79-70) at (912) CLEVELAND (86-64)
Trend: OVER the total is 9-2-1 this season when CLE is a HOME underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5) 

(913) DETROIT (77-73) at (914) KANSAS CITY (82-68)
Trend: KC better at HOME (45-30, +9.92 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-142 vs DET) 

(915) CHICAGO-AL (35-115) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (60-89)
Trend: CWS awful on the ROAD (15-57, -30.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 at LAA)

(917) OAKLAND (65-85) at (918) CHICAGO-NL (76-73)
Trend: CHC better vs AL teams (26-17, +9.72 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-205 vs OAK) 

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(901) WASHINGTON (68-81) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (81-68)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 11-0 (+11.00 units) as a HOME favorite of -180 or more in L6 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-192 vs WSH) 

(903) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-61) at (904) ATLANTA (81-68)
Trend: ATL is 40-27 in L6 seasons with Max Fried starting against teams with a winning record
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-102 vs LAD) 

(905) PHILADELPHIA (90-59) at (906) MILWAUKEE (86-63)
Trend: PHI is 13-3 (+8.20 units) vs NL Central teams with starter Ranger Suarez in L4 seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-112 at MIL)

Trend: PHI is 10-4 (+8.63 units) in ROAD NIGHT game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in L4 seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-112 at MIL) 

(911) MINNESOTA (79-70) at (912) CLEVELAND (86-64)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 16-4 (+11.05 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently*) 

(919) HOUSTON (81-68) at (920) SAN DIEGO (85-65)
Trend: SD is 10-17 (-9.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in NIGHT games with starter Yu Darvish in L6 seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-125 vs HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NY METS
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 11-18 (37.9%) -11.35 units, ROI: -39.1%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/16 vs Washington
System Matches: FADE NY METS (-192 vs. WSH)

PHILADELPHIA
LETDOWN after series vs. NY METS: 15-16 (48.4%) -5.03 units, ROI: -16.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/16 at Milwaukee
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-112 at MIL) SAN DIEGO 
MOMENTUM after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 19-11 (63.3%) +9.38 units, ROI: 31.3%     
Next betting opportunity: Monday 9/16 vs Houston
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-125 vs. HOU)

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