Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, September 24, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
NYM letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-18 (40%) -10.35 units, ROI: -34.5%
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+124 at ATL)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 24-6 (+18.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-120 at OAK)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 182 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/23 and these teams are 107-75 for +18.67 units (10.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-125 vs. BOS), OAKLAND (-105 vs. TEX), KANSAS CITY (-170 at WSH)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-52 (-8.71 units, ROI: -11.6%) in their last 75 tries.
System Matches (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+145 at DET)
Trend: LAA is 0-5 as a road favorite this season
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-122 at CWS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 307-156 (66.3%) for +37.70 units and an ROI of 8.1%!
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-120 vs. SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that the majority of bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON (+105 at TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-250 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-166 vs. CIN), KANSAS CITY (-170 at WSH), MINNESOTA (-250 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): TORONTO (-125 vs. BOS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): STL-COL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 128-72, but for -32.07 units and a ROI of -16%.
System Matches (FADE): MINNESOTA (-250 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 352-431 record, for -22.95 units (ROI -2.9%). This is well below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+114 vs. CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+100 at LAD), TAMPA BAY (+154 at DET), SEATTLE (+114 at HOU), OAKLAND (-105 vs. TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 312-332 record for +10.08 units (ROI 1.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+114 vs. CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+100 at LAD), SEATTLE (+114 at HOU), OAKLAND (-105 vs. TEX)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 179-228 for -52.83 units (-13% ROI). The three-game teams are 83-96 for -13.72 units (-7.7% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE NY METS (+124 at ATL), FADE DETROIT (-185 vs. TB)
3-games – FADE BOSTON (+105 at TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 182 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/23 and these teams are 107-75 for +18.67 units (10.3% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-125 vs. BOS), OAKLAND (-105 vs TEX), KANSAS CITY (-170 at WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1686-1587 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -213.57 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-142 at PIT), LA ANGELS (-122 at CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1607-2055 (43.9%) for -181.92 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, ST LOUIS, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3393-2984 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -468.98 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, COLORADO
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 959-830 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +16.29 units for backers and an ROI of 0.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-166 vs. CIN), HOUSTON (-130 vs. SEA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 497-414 (54.6%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.82 units, for an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-125 vs. BOS), MINNESOTA (-250 vs. MIA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 307-156 (66.3%) for +37.70 units and an ROI of 8.1%!
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-120 vs. SD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 68-151 (-64.44 units, ROI: -29.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-170 at WSH)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 182-181 run (+29.24 units, ROI: 8.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-170 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+102 vs. LAA), TORONTO (-125 vs. BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 153-169 (+6.17 units, ROI: 1.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+102 vs. LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 23-52 (-8.71 units, ROI: -11.6%) in their last 75 tries.
System Matches (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+145 at DET)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA +110 (+15 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +124 (+15 diff), MIAMI +205 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -112 (+18 diff), LA ANGELS -115 (+33 diff), HOUSTON -135 (+24 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-WSH OVER 7.5 (+1.2), CHC-PHI OVER 8 (+1.0), SEA-HOU OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-DET UNDER 7 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (80-77) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (93-64)
Trend: Over the total is 5-0-1 this season when PHI is a home underdog
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(903) MILWAUKEE (89-67) at (904) PITTSBURGH (73-83)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. LH starters (21-23, -8.35 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-142 at PIT)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (87-69) at (906) ATLANTA (85-71)
Trend: ATL heavy Under at home (24-49 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(909) SAN FRANCISCO (78-79) at (910) ARIZONA (87-70)
Trend: AZ trending Over at home (47-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)
(911) SAN DIEGO (90-66) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (93-63)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. divisional opponents (30-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(913) TAMPA BAY (78-78) at (914) DETROIT (82-74)
Trend: TB slight Under vs. AL Central/West (21-36 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(915) BALTIMORE (86-70) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (92-64)
Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (72-41, +10.58 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs BAL)
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (63-93) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (36-120)
Trend: LAA is 0-5 as a road favorite this season
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-122 at CWS)
(923) TEXAS (74-82) at (924) OAKLAND (67-89)
Trend: TEX bad on the road (30-45, -15.64 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-120 at OAK)
(925) CINCINNATI (76-81) at (926) CLEVELAND (90-67)
Trend: CLE more Under vs. NL teams (13-27 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(927) KANSAS CITY (82-74) at (928) WASHINGTON (69-87)
Trend: KC worse vs. LH starters (13-20, -10.77 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-170 at WSH)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) MILWAUKEE (89-67) at (904) PITTSBURGH (73-83)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 10-5 (+5.05 units) as a home night starter in last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+120 vs MIL)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (87-69) at (906) ATLANTA (85-71)
Trend: Luis Severino is 7-18 (-9.47 units) as an underdog in last three seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+124 at ATL)
(915) BALTIMORE (86-70) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (92-64)
Trend: BAL is 13-3 (+10.84 units) in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+136 at NYY)
Trend: NYY is 10-2 (+6.83 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs. BAL)
(921) SEATTLE (81-76) at (922) HOUSTON (85-72)
Trend: SEA is 29-17 (+17.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in last four seasons (including 14-7 (+8.19 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (+110 at HOU)
(923) TEXAS (74-82) at (924) OAKLAND (67-89)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 24-6 (+18.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-120 at OAK)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
CINCINNATI
Momentum after series vs. PITTSBURGH: 16-11 (59.3%) 5.71 units, ROI: 21.1%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/24 at Cleveland
System Matches: PLAY CINCINNATI (+140 at CLE)
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-18 (40%) -10.35 units, ROI: -34.5%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 9/24 at Atlanta
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+124 at ATL)
