Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Aaron Civale is 0-11 (-11.92 units) in home day games as a -122 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 vs. CLE)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 335-169 (66.5%) for +43.97 units and an ROI of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-143 vs. PIT)
* Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 34-18 (+17.08 units, ROI: 32.8%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-120 vs. TB)
Trend: Road teams are on a 32-17 (65.3%, +23.65 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 at HOU)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 127-80 for +34.32 units, and an ROI of 16.6%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+107 at BAL), SEATTLE (-112 at DET)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 105-129 for -25.52 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-131 vs. MIA), CLEVELAND (-137 at CWS), ATLANTA (+131 at STL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 214-119 for +37.83 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.4%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+111 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (-259 vs. WSH), SAN DIEGO (+108 vs. PHI)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 89-187 for -46.63 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.9%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+207 at CIN)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 71-31 for +1.19 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are very close to going red.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-259 vs. WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent.
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 101-30 for +24.60 units, an ROI of 18.8%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-259 vs. COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-25 for +11.22 units. We remain just a few losses away from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-259 vs. COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 252-283 for +19.06 units, ROI +3.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+107 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (+111 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (-104 vs. NYM), ATLANTA (+131 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 vs. LAD), SAN DIEGO (+108 vs. PHI)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 126-130 for -0.17 units (ROI -0.01%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L2 regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 65-62, +0.62 units.
System Match (FADE): 2-games – NY METS (-116 at KC)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 137-104 for +4.19 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 vs. TB), MILWAUKEE (-259 vs. WSH), SAN DIEGO (+108 vs. PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
- 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
- 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
- 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
- Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, NY METS, MINNESOTA, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-MIN
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 357-370 but for +43.52 units and an ROI of 6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-101 at BOS), DETROIT (-108 vs SEA), PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN), WASHINGTON (+200 at MIL), ARIZONA (-107 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 311-348 but for +80.28 units and an ROI of 12.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+111 at NYY), TEXAS (+113 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN), ATLANTA (+131 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 568-641 record but for +49.60 units and a ROI of 4.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN), COLORADO (+207 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-101 at BOS), TEXAS (+113 at HOU), PHILADELPHIA (-132 at SD), TORONTO (-127 at ATH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 405-386 (51.2%) for +25.82 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.3%.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-108 vs. SEA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1851-1761 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -254.21 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-112 at DET), MINNESOTA (-143 vs. PIT), LA ANGELS (-113 vs. AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1841-2337 (44.1%) for -205.16 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-144 at SF), TAMPA BAY (-101 at BOS)
Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3740-3292 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -524.45 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-108 vs. SEA), MINNESOTA (-143 vs. PIT), ST LOUIS (-160 vs. ATL), MILWAUKEE (-250 vs. WSH), HOUSTON (-137 vs. TEX), SAN DIEGO (+108 vs. PHI), LA ANGELS (-113 vs. AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 552-464 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.25 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 vs. CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 vs. LAD)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 335-169 (66.5%) for +43.97 units and an ROI of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-143 vs. PIT)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 310-273 (53.2%) for +23.44 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-108 vs. SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 35-94 skid (-37.26 units, ROI -28.9%) in the next game when playing as road underdog.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 67-138 skid (-39.83 units, ROI: -19.4%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 83-167 (-62.86 units, ROI: -25.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 235-246 run (+14.78 units, ROI: 3.1%).
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+118 at MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 212-143 in their last 355 tries (+27.18 units, ROI: 7.7%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-250 vs. WSH)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 113-122 (-57.28 units, ROI: -24.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-120 vs TB)
Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won 9 games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks on 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 34-18 (+17.08 units, ROI: 32.8%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-120 vs TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS +111 (+35 diff), COLORADO +207 (+33), WASHINGTON +207 (+22), DETROIT -108 (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MINNESOTA -143 (+16 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-MIN UNDER 9 (-0.6), WSH-MIL UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) COLORADO (22-73) at (902) CINCINNATI (49-47)
Trend: COL is 4-10 (-6.27 units) vs NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber the last four seasons
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 5-20 (-9.32 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
Trends Match (FADE): COLORADO (+207 at CIN)
Trend: Under the total is 33-19-2 (+12.10 units) when CIN is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-CIN (o/u at 9.5)
(903) WASHINGTON (38-57) at (904) MILWAUKEE (55-40)
Trend: WSH is 43-25 (+13.20 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at MIL)
(909) PHILADELPHIA (54-41) at (910) SAN DIEGO (52-43)
Trend: PHI is 13-21 (-12.27 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-132 a SD)
Trend: Under the total is 24-13-2 (+9.70 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SD (o/u at 7.5)
(913) SEATTLE (50-45) at (914) DETROIT (59-37)
Trend: DET is 27-15 (+10.90 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs SEA)
(915) TEXAS (47-49) at (916) HOUSTON (56-39)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 26-10 (+15.88 units) in the last 36 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 at HOU)
Trend: TEX is 11-25 (-12.78 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 at HOU)
(917) CLEVELAND (45-49) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (32-64)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 0-11 (-11.92 units) in home day games as a -122 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+113 vs. CLE)
(925) NEW YORK-NL (55-41) at (926) KANSAS CITY (46-50)
Trend: Under the total is 31-17-1 (+12.30 units) in Royals’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-KC (o/u at 8.5)
(927) PITTSBURGH (38-58) at (928) MINNESOTA (47-48)
Trend: MIN hasn’t been great in day games this season (20-28 record, -14.93 units)
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-144 vs PIT)
(929) ARIZONA (46-50) at (930) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-48)
Trend: Over the total is 17-10-1 (+6.00 units) when LAA is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-LAA (o/u at 9)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #11: Texas at Houston, Fri 7/11-Sun 7/13
Trend: Road teams are on a 32-17 (65.3%, +23.65 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
– The ROI on this trend is 48.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+113 at HOU)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
