Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (24-10 record, +15.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-116 at MIN)
Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 310-204 for +66.51 units, an ROI of 12.9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-109 at NYY), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), TEXAS (-106 at LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 115-153 for -35.92 units and a ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 vs. CLE)
Trend: Under the total is 22-12-2 (+8.80 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SD (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 121-77 for +31.51 units, and an ROI of 15.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-109 at NYY), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), TEXAS (-106 at LAA)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 99-126 for -28.63 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+118 vs. NYM), MINNESOTA (-105 vs. CHC), MIAMI (+141 at CIN), CLEVELAND (-132 at CWS), TEXAS (-106 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (-101 vs AZ)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 212-116 for +41.67 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.7%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-109 at NYY), ATLANTA (-166 at ATH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 244-277 for +15.32 units, ROI +2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+118 vs. NYM), MIAMI (+141 at CIN), SEATTLE (-109 at NYY), TEXAS (-106 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (-101 vs. AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 125-128 for +0.93 units (ROI 0.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 63-60, +1.92 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MINNESOTA (-105 vs. CHC)
3-games – NY YANKEES (-112 vs. SEA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in ‘23, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 131-102 for +0.51 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), CLEVELAND (-132 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY METS GAME 2, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS GAME 1, NY METS GAME 2, CHICAGO CUBS, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 12023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS GAME 1 AND GAME 2, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, SEATTLE, BOSTON, CLEVELAND, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-ATH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 390-302 for +47.79 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), CLEVELAND (-132 at CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 595-782 but for +26.46 units and an ROI of 1.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+141 at CIN), WASHINGTON (+118 at STL)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 115-153 for -35.92 units and a ROI of -13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 vs. CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 348-291 record for +54.65 units and an ROI of 8.6% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-106 at BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 567-639 record but for +50.91 units and a ROI of 4.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+141 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-116 at MIN)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 404-385 (51.2%) for +25.31 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.2%.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+136 vs. ATL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1847-1757 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.81 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-112 vs. SEA), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), LA ANGELS (-113 vs. TEX), ATLANTA (-166 at ATH)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1836-2330 (44.1%) for -203.89 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+141 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-116 at MIN)
Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3730-3283 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -522.61 units and a ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (+113 vs. NYM), NY YANKEES (-112 vs. SEA), BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), CINCINNATI (-172 vs. MIA), LA ANGELS (-113 vs. TEX)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 334-169 (66.4%) for +42.97 units and an ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB), LA ANGELS (-113 vs. TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 109-121 (-59.70 units, ROI: -26%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-115 vs. TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -101 (+28 diff), MIAMI +141 (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ST LOUIS -144 (+24 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATL-ATH OVER 10 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-BAL GAME 2 UNDER 10 (-0.8), NYM-BAL GAME 1 UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MIAMI (42-49) at (952) CINCINNATI (47-46)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 24-25 (+13.78 units) as an underdog of +135 or more in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+141 at CIN)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is just 14-18 (-9.36 units) vs teams with a losing record in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-172 vs. MIA)
(953) WASHINGTON (38-54) at (954) ST LOUIS (49-44)
Trend: WSH is 42-23 (+15.13 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at STL)
(955) ARIZONA (46-47) at (956) SAN DIEGO (49-43)
Trend: Under the total is 22-12-2 (+8.80 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-SD (o/u at 8.5)
(959) TAMPA BAY (50-43) at (960) BOSTON (49-45)
Trend: TB is 22-10 (+7.76 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 at BOS)
(963) TEXAS (45-48) at (964) LOS ANGELES-AL (45-47)
Trend: Patrick Corbin is 7-12 (-4.84 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (*if they fall into this line range, -107 currently)
(965) NEW YORK-NL (53-39) at (966) BALTIMORE (40-50) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Under the total is 22-11-2 (+9.90 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-BAL GAME 1 (o/u at 9)
(967) CHICAGO-NL (54-38) at (968) MINNESOTA (45-47)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (24-10 record, +15.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-116 at MIN)
Trend: MIN is 19-27 (-14.88 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-105 vs. CHC)
(969) ATLANTA (40-51) at (970) ATHLETICS (38-56)
Trend: ATL is 37-39 (-27.31 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-166 at ATH)
(971) NEW YORK-NL (53-39) at (972) BALTIMORE (40-50) (DH Game #2)
Trend: NYM is 8-15 (-5.66 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS GAME 2 (-105 at BAL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: tomorrow, July 11)
