Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Arizona is 14-5 (+7.07 units) in the last 19 home divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-137 vs. SF)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 331-167 (66.5%) for +43.06 units and an ROI of 8.6%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-114 vs. CIN)
* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 301-196 for +65.71 units, an ROI of 13.2%!
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+118 at SEA)
* Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 69-54 (+20.48 units, ROI: 16.7%) in their last 123 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+122 vs. MIN)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 112-69 for +30.71 units and an ROI of 17%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high, and we are including it in the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. We gained +4.44 units again over the last eight days.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+118 at SEA)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 32-35 for -12.05 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -18% and it is proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-164 vs. SD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 85-112 for -28.52 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-200 vs. LAA), BALTIMORE (+152 at TEX)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 191-104 for +36.10 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +12.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-165 at TOR), SAN DIEGO (+134 at PHI), MINNESOTA (-149 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (-169 vs. STL), MILWAUKEE (+104 at NYM), TEXAS (-187 vs. BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (-185 vs. CLE)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 84-171 for -36.74 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.4%. This is the double whammy scenario to fade, and it continued losing last week with -1.23 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 vs. DET), COLORADO (+129 vs. HOU)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 62-26 for +3.26 units. This remains an uncustomary winning half-year for this angle, although we are getting closer to the red after another -3.25 units week this past eight days.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-200 vs. LAA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished with a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 92-29 for +18.21 units, an ROI of 15.1%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-339 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 61-24 for +6.23 units. We remain just a couple of losses away from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-339 vs. CWS), ATLANTA (-200 vs. LAA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 218-248 for +13.32 units, ROI +2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+134 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+138 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (+104 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+118 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+112 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. This year, they are 112-118 for -1.67 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so it’s good to see this angle finally coming around as we just passed midseason. After two bad weeks in a row (-11.23 units), this year’s record is looking more and more like usual, 58-58, -0.82 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – TORONTO (+135 vs. NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-164 vs. SD), BALTIMORE (+152 at TEX), SEATTLE (-144 vs. KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+263 at LAD)
3+ games – PITTSBURGH (-169 vs. STL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): NY METS, CINCINNATI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-COL
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 384-297 for +47.28 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+122 vs. MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 304-272 but for -82.05 units and an ROI of -14.2% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-127 vs. MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,832-1,743 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.13 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-114 vs. CIN), BALTIMORE (+160 at TEX)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,814-2,307 (44%) for -202.80 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO, ST LOUIS, KANSAS CITY, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON
Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,695-3,261 (53.1%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -529.72 units and an ROI of -7.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, WASHINGTON, PITTSBURGH, TORONTO, BOSTON, TEXAS, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 331-167 (66.5%) for +43.06 units and an ROI of 8.6%!
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-114 vs. CIN)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 308-269 (53.4%) for +27.58 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-127 vs. MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 69-54 (+20.48 units, ROI: 16.7%) in their last 123 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+122 vs. MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 160-123 (+18.62 units, ROI: 6.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+122 vs. MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +263 (+50 diff), LA ANGELS +162 (+30)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOUSTON -158 (+43 diff), DETROIT -157 (+35)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-SEA UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), CWS-LAD UNDER 8.5 (-0.7), CLE-CHC UNDER 8 (-0.6), SF-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), CIN-BOS UNDER 10 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN DIEGO (45-39) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (50-35)
Trend: Under the total is 18-9 (+8.10 units) when SD faces left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-PHI (o/u at 8.5)
(903) ST LOUIS (47-39) at (904) PITTSBURGH (36-50)
Trend: Over the total is 28-16 (+10.40 units) in Cardinals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): STL-PIT (o/u at 7.5)
(905) MILWAUKEE (47-37) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (48-37)
Trend: Under the total is 29-15-2 (+12.50 units) in Brewers’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (45-40) at (908) ARIZONA (42-42)
Trend: Arizona is 14-5 (+7.07 units) in its last 19 home divisional starts by Zac Gallen
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-137 vs. SF)
(909) NEW YORK-AL (48-36) at (910) TORONTO (46-38)
Trend: Max Fried is 25-11 (+9.63 units) in road games since the start of the 2023 season
Trend: Max Fried is 47-31 in the last six seasons against teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)
Trend: Toronto is 9-15 (-12.55 units) vs. AL East foes with Kevin Gausman since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+129 vs. NYY)
(911) ATHLETICS (35-52) at (912) TAMPA BAY (47-38)
Trend: Under the total is 33-21-3 (+9.90 units) when TB is a moneyline favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TB (o/u at 8.5)
(913) BALTIMORE (37-47) at (914) TEXAS (41-44)
Trend: Under the total is 30-13 (+15.70 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-TEX (o/u at 7)
(915) KANSAS CITY (39-46) at (916) SEATTLE (44-40)
Trend: Seattle is 20-39 (-16.54 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs. KC)
(917) MINNESOTA (40-44) at (918) MIAMI (37-45)
Trend: Miami is 15-12 (+5.16 units) as a shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last four seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI (+122 vs. MIN)
(919) DETROIT (53-32) at (920) WASHINGTON (35-49)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has done well against lesser opponents, going 29-11 (+7.36 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-156 at WSH)
(923) LOS ANGELES-AL (41-42) at (924) ATLANTA (38-45)
Trend: The Angels have been profitable on the road this season (21-22 record, +8.50 units)
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (+151 at ATL)
(925) CLEVELAND (40-42) at (926) CHICAGO-NL (49-35)
Trend: Cleveland is 6-15 (-9.49 units) against teams with a winning percentage of 55% or higher with starter Gavin Williams since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+148 at CHC)
(927) HOUSTON (50-34) at (928) COLORADO (19-65)
Trend: Colorado is 2-22 (-18.48) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+129 vs. HOU)
(929) CHICAGO-AL (28-56) at (930) LOS ANGELES-NL (53-32)
Trend: Over the total is 27-14-3 (+11.60 units) in Dodgers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 6/30-Thu 7/3
Trend: Favorites are just 24-36 (40%, -26.82 units) in the last 60 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -44.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 at TOR)
Series #26: Baltimore at Texas, Mon 6/30-Wed 7/2
Trend: Underdogs (and pick-’ems) are 22-11 (66.7%, +13.25 units) in the last 32 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 40.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+176 at TEX)
Team-Specific Momentum -Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled “MLB Post-Rivalry Series Betting Opportunities.”
ATLANTA
Momentum after series vs. Philadelphia: 21-14 (60%) +6.20 units, ROI: 17.7%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday, July 1 vs. LA Angels
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-185 vs. LAA)
