Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Top MLB Resources:
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 26-3 (+21.05 units) as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 333-169 (66.3%) for +41.97 units and an ROI of 8.4%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. PIT)
* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 207-112 for +42.89 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+113 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-133 at MIN), HOUSTON (-202 vs. CLE), TEXAS (-119 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (-137 vs. AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. PHI)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 108-121 (-60.70 units, ROI: -26.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-130 vs. TB)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 118-76 for +29.51 units and an ROI of 15.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+113 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD), TEXAS (-119 at LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. PHI)
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 96-122 for -28.33 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+104 vs. NYM), MINNESOTA (+109 vs. CHC), CLEVELAND (+164 at HOU), ATLANTA (-121 at ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 207-112 for +42.89 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+113 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. PIT), CHICAGO CUBS (-133 at MIN), HOUSTON (-202 vs. CLE), TEXAS (-119 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (-137 vs. AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. PHI)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 87-181 for -43.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.3%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+220 at BOS), PHILADELPHIA (+127 at SF)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 68-28 for +5.31 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are still very close to going red.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-218 vs. WSH), HOUSTON (-202 vs. CLE)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished with a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 97-29 for +23.21 units, an ROI of 18.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-277 vs. COL), TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and ’24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 65-25 for +8.22 units. We remain just a few losses away again from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-277 vs. COL), TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 240-271 for +17.11 units, ROI +3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+104 vs. NYM), SEATTLE (+113 at NYY), MIAMI (+101 at CIN), MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 128-99 for +1.25 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+104 vs. NYM), DETROIT (-130 vs. TB), SEATTLE (+113 at NYY), BOSTON (-277 vs. COL), TORONTO (-198 at CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns:
– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 UNITS and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): *WATCH FOR TORONTO*
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 UNITS and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
— Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season and a half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SEA-NYY, MIA-CIN
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 390-300 for +49.79 units and an ROI of 7.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+113 at NYY), BALTIMORE (+103 vs. NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 192-137 for +24.56 units and an ROI of 7.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-125 at BAL), ATLANTA (-121 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 114-153 for -37.04 units and an ROI of -13.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+109 vs. CHC), ATHLETICS (+100 vs. ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 308-275 but for -82.12 units and an ROI of -14.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-137 vs. SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 348-290 record for +56.01 units and an ROI of 8.8% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-133 at MIN)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,841-1,753 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.68 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, MILWAUKEE, KANSAS CITY
Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,832-2,322 (44.1%) for -199.94 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, ATLANTA, TAMPA BAY, LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,721-3,279 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -525.73 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 549-463 (54.2%) record in the next game when at home in that same period. The profit there is +21.52 units, for an ROI of 2.1%.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-123 vs. MIA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 333-169 (66.3%) for +41.97 units and an ROI of 8.4%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-137 vs. PIT)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 210-141 in their last 351 tries (+28.15 units, ROI: 8%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 108-121 (-60.70 units, ROI: -26.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-130 vs. TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: COLORADO +201 (+43 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -133 (+40 diff), KANSAS CITY -137 (+26), DETROIT -130 (+26 diff), NY METS -126 (+22), ATLANTA -121 (+18), HOUSTON -202 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-MIL OVER 8.5 (+0.5), CLE-HOU OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-BAL UNDER 10 (-0.9), ATL-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MIAMI (41-48) at (952) CINCINNATI (46-45)
Trend: MIA is 2-7 (-6.22 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+101 at CIN)
(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-36) at (954) MILWAUKEE (51-40)
Trend: Under the total is 26-17-2 (+7.30 units) in Brewers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 8.5)
(955) WASHINGTON (37-53) at (956) ST LOUIS (48-43)
Trend: WSH is 41-22 (+15.22 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at STL)
(959) PHILADELPHIA (53-38) at (960) SAN FRANCISCO (50-42)
Trend: Under the total is 29-14-2 (+13.60 units) in Phillies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SF (o/u at 8.5)
(961) TAMPA BAY (49-42) at (962) DETROIT (58-34)
Trend: DET is the most profitable team as a ML favorite this season (47-21 record, +15.21 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-130 vs. TB)
(963) SEATTLE (48-42) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (49-41)
Trend: SEA is 29-18 (+16.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons (including 14-8 (+7.19 units) on the road within -105 to +115 line range)
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+113 at NYY)
(965) TORONTO (53-38) at (966) CHICAGO-AL (30-61)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 26-3 (+21.05 units) as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 18-8 (+5.46 units) vs. AL Central opponents in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-198 at CWS)
(967) CLEVELAND (41-48) at (968) HOUSTON (55-36)
Trend: HOU is solid at home (32-15, +12.99 units) this season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-202 vs. CLE)
(971) NEW YORK-NL (52-39) at (972) BALTIMORE (40-49)
Trend: Under the total is 22-10-2 (+11.00 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-BAL (o/u at 10)
(973) COLORADO (21-70) at (974) BOSTON (47-45)
Trend: COL is 9-24 (-9.00 units) in the last 33 games on the road with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+201 at BOS)
(977) PITTSBURGH (38-54) at (978) KANSAS CITY (44-48)
Trend: PIT is awful on the road (12-33, -16.85 units) this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+113 at KC)
Trend: Under the total is 33-20-1 (+11.00 units) in Royals night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-KC (o/u at 8)
(979) ATLANTA (39-50) at (980) ATHLETICS (37-55)
Trend: ATL is 36-38 (-27.25 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-121 at ATH)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #13: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee, Mon 7/7-Wed 7/9
Trend: Favorites are 20-5 (80%, +11.61 units) in the last 25 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 46.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)
Series #14: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Mon 7/7-Wed 7/9
Trend: Home teams are on an 18-4 (81.8%, +13.72 units) run in the Giants-Phillies series
– The ROI on this trend is 62.4%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-155 vs. PHI)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, July 11)
