The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Adrian Houser is 16-5 (+13.05 units) in his last 21 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+133 vs. TOR) 

Since the start of the 2023 season, money line underdog teams with better SM bullpen ratings have gone 944-1064, but for 63.36 units, an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+134 vs. LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs. PHI), BALTIMORE (+129 vs. NYM), SEATTLE (+134 at NYY), MIAMI (+118 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-107 at MIN) 

Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 108-121 (-60.70 units, ROI: -26.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-328 vs. COL) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 565-636 record but for +52.14 units and an ROI of 4.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-163 at MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-131 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+122 at DET), COLORADO (+246 at BOS), PITTSBURGH (+156 at KC) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 35-35 for -9.05 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -12.9% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-144 vs. MIA), WASHINGTON (+107 at STL)

2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 98-124 for -27.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+118 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-107 at MIN), ATLANTA (-113 at ATH)

3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 211-115 for +42.35 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-194 vs. PIT), SAN DIEGO (-149 vs. AZ)

4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 87-183 for -45.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -16.9%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+255 at BOS) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 69-29 for +4.13 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are still very close to going red.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-194 vs. PIT) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 99-29 for +25.21 units, an ROI of 19.7%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-328 vs. COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
 A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 243-274 for +17.09 units, ROI +3.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+134 vs. LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs. PHI), BALTIMORE (+129 vs. NYM), SEATTLE (+134 at NYY), MIAMI (+118 at CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-107 at MIN) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 123-128 for -1.41 units (ROI -0.6%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 63-60, +1.92 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY YANKEES (-164 vs. SEA), CLEVELAND (+123 at HOU) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 128-99 for +1.25 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-163 vs. CWS), MILWAUKEE (+134 vs. LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs. PHI), DETROIT (-150 vs. TB), BOSTON (-328 vs. COL), KANSAS CITY (-194 vs. PIT)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full-season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%) 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last two seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 194-62 (75.8%) for +13.5 units and an ROI of 5.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, BOSTON, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to -12.5%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 were just 393-334 (54.1%) for -90.59 units and an ROI of -12.5%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 356-368 but for +44.84 units and an ROI of 6.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+133 vs. TOR), LA DODGERS (-163 at MIL), PITTSBURGH (+156 at KC) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 593-781 but for +24.85 units and an ROI of 1.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+122 at DET), CLEVELAND (+123 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (+156 at KC)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 565-636 record but for +52.14 units and an ROI of 4.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-163 at MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-131 at SF), TAMPA BAY (+122 at DET), COLORADO (+246 at BOS), PITTSBURGH (+156 at KC)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 402-385 (51.1%) for +23.31 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-101 vs. TEX), CINCINNATI (-144 vs. MIA) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1844-1754 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.04 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, BOSTON, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, TEXAS, ATHLETICS

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1832-2327 (44%) for -205.10 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA, ATLANTA 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3727-3281 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -522.97 units and an ROI of -7.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, ATHLETICS 

Watch for Home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 549-464 (54.2%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +20.25 units, for an ROI of 2%.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (-101 vs. TEX) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 334-169 (66.4%) for +42.97 units and a ROI of 8.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (*if they become favored vs ATL, -107 currently) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 234-243 run (+16.78 units, ROI: 3.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+157 at KC), ATLANTA (-113 at ATH)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 211-141 in their last 352 tries (+29.15 units, ROI: 8.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-163 at CWS), DETROIT (-150 vs. TB) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 108-121 (-60.70 units, ROI: -26.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-328 vs. COL)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +255 (+75 diff), MILWAUKEE +134 (+21), BALTIMORE +129 (+19)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -130 (+25 diff), CINCINNATI -144 (+16)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.8), CLE-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.7), LAD-MIL OVER 8.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-BAL UNDER 10 (-1.2), PHI-SF UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), SEA-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), PIT-KC UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (56-37) at (902) MILWAUKEE (52-40)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 38-10 (+13.27 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (*if they fall into this line range, -163 currently)

Trend: Under the total is 27-17-2 (+8.30 units) in Brewers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 8.5) 

(903) PHILADELPHIA (53-39) at (904) SAN FRANCISCO (51-42)
Trend: Under the total is 30-14-2 (+14.60 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SF (o/u at 8)

Trend: Justin Verlander is 2-9 (-11.40 units) at home against NL teams with a winning record in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs. PHI)

(907) WASHINGTON (37-54) at (908) ST LOUIS (49-43)
Trend: WSH is 41-23 (+14.13 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at STL) 

(911) TAMPA BAY (49-43) at (912) DETROIT (59-34)
Trend: DET is the most profitable team as a ML favorite this season (48-21 record, +16.21 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-150 vs. TB) 

(913) TORONTO (54-38) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (30-62)
Trend: Adrian Houser is 16-5 (+13.05 units) in his last 21 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+133 vs TOR) 

(917) CLEVELAND (42-48) at (918) HOUSTON (55-37)
Trend: CLE is not good vs LH starters this season (8-19 record, -11.21 units)
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+123 at HOU)

Trend: HOU is solid at HOME (32-16, +10.81 units) this season
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-149 vs CLE) 

(919) TEXAS (45-47) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (44-47)
Trend: Kyle Hendricks not good in the short underdog role, +100 to +128 range, 5-19 (-13.46 units) in the last 24
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (*if they fall into this line range, -101 currently*) 

(921) NEW YORK-NL (53-39) at (922) BALTIMORE (40-50)
Trend: Under the total is 22-11-2 (+9.90 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-BAL (o/u at 10)

(923) COLORADO (21-71) at (924) BOSTON (48-45)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 11-17 in his last 28 starts against the NL (-8.38 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-328 vs. COL)

(925) CHICAGO-NL (54-37) at (926) MINNESOTA (44-47)
Trend: MIN is 28-16 (+12.91 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs CHC) 

(927) PITTSBURGH (38-55) at (928) KANSAS CITY (45-48)
Trend: PIT is awful on the road (12-34, -17.85 units) this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+157 at KC)

Trend: Under the total is 34-20-1 (+12.00 units) in Royals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-KC (o/u at 8.5) 

(929) ATLANTA (39-51) at (930) ATHLETICS (38-55)
Trend: ATL is 36-39 (-28.31 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-113 at ATH)

Series #13: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee, Mon 7/7-Wed 7/9
Trend: Favorites are 20-6 (76.9%, +10.51 units) in the last 26 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 40.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-163 at MIL) 

Series #14: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Mon 7/7-Wed 7/9
Trend: Home teams are on a 19-4 (82.6%, +14.72 units) run in the Giants-Phillies National League series
–  The ROI on this trend is 64%.
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs. PHI)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, July 11)

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