The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, June 25, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Max Fried is 20-3 (+15.10 units) in the last 23 starts vs. NL Central teams
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-218 at CIN)

Trend: The last ten games (100%, +10.00 units) of the Houston-Philadelphia head-to-head series went Under the total.
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 7.5) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 553-618 record, but for +57.90 units and an ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-109 at MIL), BOSTON (+108 at LAA), WASHINGTON (+128 at SD), NY YANKEES (-218 at CIN) 

* Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 230-235 run (+20.15 units, ROI: 4.3%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+108 at LAA) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 30-32 for -11.2 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -18.1% and it is proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+128 at SD), PHILADELPHIA (-156 at HOU)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 80-100 for -22.52 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+128 vs. TEX), ATLANTA (+129 at NYM)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 179-95 for +38.43 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +14%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle has gone 32-13 for +10.67 units since I introduced it two weeks ago.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-156 at BAL), NY YANKEES (-218 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (-132 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (-149 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (-232 vs. MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 81-166 for -36.51 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.8%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+128 vs/ AZ), COLORADO (+264 vs. LAD) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 59-23 for +7.51 units. This remains an uncustomary winning year for this angle, although we are getting closer to the red after another -2.17 units these past nine days.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-218 at CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-232 vs. MIA) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 88-27 for +18.74 units, a ROI of 16.3%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-340 at COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again, but we’ve given back -1.38 units the past two weeks. For the season, the record is now 203-232 for +10.56 units, ROI +2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+108 at LAA), ATLANTA (+129 at NYM), SEATTLE (+108 at MIN), HOUSTON (+128 vs. PHI) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 107-111 for -1.05 units (ROI -0.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (55-53, +1.09 units) are somewhat surprising. That said, these teams had their worst week of the season last week, going 5-10 for -8.32 units, and we are almost in negative territory finally.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – LA ANGELS (-132 vs. BOS), ST LOUIS (+122 vs. CHC), MIAMI (+187 at SF)
3-games – CINCINNATI (+176 vs. NYY) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 112-89 for -2.73 units, even after having recovered from a very slow start.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at MIN)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

Below is a summary of the 2024 season findings, with the 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors were somewhat improved over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 full season results, along with some notes about the early 2025 returns: 

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
–  Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -7% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 200-83 (70.7%) for +35.78 units and an ROI of +12.6%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 20%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 431-381 (53.1%) for -4.6 units and an ROI of -0.6%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of about 6.5% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep a bettor afloat, considering this angle has included 812 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE, LA ANGELS, TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 107-61 (61.1%) for -37.26 units and an ROI of -22.2%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 716-658 (52.1%) but for -140.34 units and an ROI of -10.2%. This is over three full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ARIZONA, PHILADELPHIA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 226-228 (48.3%) for -105.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -23.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 190-169 (73.4%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-NYM, NYY-CIN, TB-KC 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 353-360 but for +50.64 units and an ROI of 7.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+108 at LAA)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 582-764 but for +27.72 units and an ROI of 2.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (+108 at LAA), WASHINGTON (+128 at SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 304-339 but for +80.13 units and a ROI of 12.5% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+108 at LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 553-618 record but for +57.90 units and an ROI of 4.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-109 at MIL), BOSTON (+108 at LAA), WASHINGTON (+128 at SD), NY YANKEES (-218 at CIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1820-1732 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.54 units. This represents an ROI of -7.1%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, TORONTO, LA DODGERS

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1804-2294 (44%) for -201.03 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON

Home teams that scored well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3681-3239 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.97 units and a ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, COLORADO

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 1042-903 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +8.40 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO WHITE SOX

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the ’23 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 230-235 run (+20.15 units, ROI: 4.3%).
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+108 at LAA) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +264 (+38 diff), CINCINNATI +176 (+20), MIAMI +187 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -180 (+17 diff), LA ANGELS -132 (+15), SAN DIEGO -156 (+15) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-MIN OVER 7.5 (+0.6), AZ-CWS OVER 8.5 (+0.5), LAD-COL OVER 11 (+0.5), PHI-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TB-KC UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) PITTSBURGH (32-49) at (902) MILWAUKEE (44-36)
Trend: MIL is 28-15 (+8.32 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-111 vs PIT) 

(903) WASHINGTON (33-47) at (904) SAN DIEGO (43-36)
Trend: WSH is 36-20 (+13.49 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at SD) 

(905) ATLANTA (37-41) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (46-34)
Trend: ATL is 3-10 (-6.65 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+129 at NYM) 

(907) CHICAGO-NL (46-33) at (908) ST LOUIS (44-36)
Trend: Over the total is 28-13 (+13.70 units) in Cardinals’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-STL (o/u at 9) 

(911) MIAMI (32-45) at (912) SAN FRANCISCO (44-35)
Trend: SF is 13-3 (+7.96 units) as a home night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-232 vs. MIA) 

(913) BOSTON (40-41) at (914) LOS ANGELES-AL (39-40)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 2-6 (-5.02 units) vs Boston in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-132 vs. BOS) 

(915) TEXAS (39-41) at (916) BALTIMORE (34-45)
Trend: Under the total is 32-19 (+11.10 units) in Rangers’ night games this season
Trend: Under the total is 28-13-2 (+13.70 units) in Orioles’ night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

(917) ATHLETICS (32-49) at (918) DETROIT (50-30)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 29-10 (+9.28 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-175 vs. ATH) 

(919) TORONTO (42-36) at (920) CLEVELAND (39-38)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 12-9 (+5.03 units) as an underdog in the last six seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (+101 at CLE) 

(921) TAMPA BAY (44-35) at (922) KANSAS CITY (38-41)
Trend: Under the total is 30-18-3 (+10.20 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-KC (o/u at 9) 

(923) SEATTLE (41-37) at (924) MINNESOTA (37-42)
Trend: Over the total is 35-18-3 (+15.20 units) when SEA faces RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-MIN (o/u at 7.5) 

(927) NEW YORK-AL (45-34) at (928) CINCINNATI (42-38)
Trend: Max Fried is 20-3 (+15.10 units) in his last 23 starts vs. NL Central teams
Trend: Max Fried is 24-11 (+8.63 units) in road games since the start of the 2023 season
Trend: Max Fried is 46-31 in the last six seasons starting against teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-218 at CIN) 

(929) PHILADELPHIA (47-32) at (930) HOUSTON (46-33)
Trend: Under the total is 13-3-2 (+9.70 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 7.5) 

Series #26: Texas at Baltimore, Mon 6/23-Wed 6/25
Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 21-10 (67.7%, +13.25 units) in the last 31 games between TEX and BAL
– The ROI on this trend is 42.7%
Trend Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+128 vs. TEX)

Series #27: Philadelphia at Houston, Tue 6/24-Thu 6/26
Trend: The last ten games (100%, +10.00 units) of the Houston-Philadelphia head-to-head series went Under the total.
– The ROI on this trend is 100%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-HOU (o/u at 7.5) 

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, June 27)

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