Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, April 20, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 UNITS and a ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), PLAY CLEVELAND (-170 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-135 vs DET), MILWAUKEE (+105 at STL), BOSTON (+100 at PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is OVER bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DET-MIN, PLAY UNDER in CWS-PHI, PLAY OVER in OAK-CLE, PLAY UNDER in BAL-KC
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (-125 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, DETROIT, ARIZONA, BOSTON, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL, CLEVELAND RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units. As shown before with the -.08 unit return, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the ’24 season.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, LA ANGELS, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO CUBS GAMES 1 AND 2
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative at 16-10 for -3.88 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), PLAY CHICAGO CUBS GAME 2 (-205 vs. MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 34-45 record, for -6.00 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+105 at STL), LA ANGELS (+105 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (-105 vs TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 23-19 for +5.16 units after a 6-10 for -3.96 units last week. The three-game teams are 13-12 for +2.66 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE NY METS (+154 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak were 15-14 for -4.55 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-325 vs CWS), ATLANTA (-155 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-185 at COL), CHICAGO CUBS GAME 2 (*if they win GAME 1*)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 12-9 for +0.04 units, a slower start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (-120 vs BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 319-293 (52.1%) for +39.86 units of profit. This represents an R.O.I. of 6.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs AZ)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1463-1376 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -182.29 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-170 vs OAK), KANSAS CITY (+114 vs BAL), NY METS (+154 at LAD), ARIZONA (-125 at SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1324-1721 (43.5%) for -166.75 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+105 at CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 at PHI), OAKLAND (+142 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (+105 at STL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2953-2585 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -390.87 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS, CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 830-711 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.55 units for backers and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-118 vs BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs AZ)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 423-355 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.86 units, for a ROI of 3.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+154 vs SEA), ST LOUIS (-125 vs MIL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 278-134 (67.5%) for +44.66 units and an ROI of 10.8%!
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-155 vs TEX)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 245-202 (54.8%) for +39.88 units and a ROI of 8.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (+105 vs AZ)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 134-108 run (+52.72 units, ROI: 21.8%).
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+154 vs SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 166-86 (+13.15 units, ROI: 5.2%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-155 vs TEX)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 150-98 in their last 248 tries (+23.57 units, ROI: 9.5%).
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (+154 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 17-44 (-11.61 units, ROI: -19%) in their last 61 tries.
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+154 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 60-64 (-30.33 units, ROI: -24.5%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-155 vs TEX), FADE NY METS (+154 at LAD)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +154 (+28 diff), DETROIT +114 (+23 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +260 (+65 diff), MIAMI GAME 2 +170 (+23 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY YANKEES -135 (+21 diff), CLEVELAND -170 (+18 diff), CHICAGO CUBS GAME 1 -155 (+17 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-PIT OVER 8 (+0.7), MIA-CHC GAME 1 OVER 8.5 (+0.6), SEA-COL OVER 10 (+0.6), TOR-SD OVER 8 (+0.5), BAL-KC OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), HOU-WSH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(959) TAMPA BAY (11-10) at (960) NEW YORK-AL (14-6)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 11-4 (+5.22 units) vs AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+114 at NYY)
Trend: NYY is 12-1 (+10.90 units) at HOME in DAY games with starter Nestor Cortes in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 vs TB)
(961) DETROIT (11-9) at (962) MINNESOTA (6-12)
Trend: Detroit is 5-0 (+6.17 units) vs KC/MIN with starter Reese Olson
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+114 at MIN)
Trend: Minnesota is 3-0 (+3.00 units) at home vs. Detroit Tigers with starter Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-135 vs DET)
(965) BALTIMORE (12-7) at (966) KANSAS CITY (13-7)
Trend: Corbin Burnes just 12-13 (-3.67 units) against teams with a 58% or higher win pct
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (-135 at KC)
(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (9-11) at (974) CINCINNATI (10-9)
Trend: LAA is 1-11 (-11.55 units) following up a team win in his previous outing with starter Patrick Sandoval in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+105 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 2-6 (-5.25 units) as short favorite (-125 to -115 line range) by starter Graham Ashcraft
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-125 vs LAA)
(979) TORONTO (11-9) at (980) SAN DIEGO (11-11)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 8-22 (-20.59 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently*)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
