Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-180 vs MIA), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-185 vs CWS), PLAY NY YANKEES (-166 vs TB), PLAY CLEVELAND (-170 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-102 at PIT), MINNESOTA (-155 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, ATLANTA, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CWS-PHI, PLAY UNDER in DET-MIN, PLAY UNDER in MIL-STL, PLAY OVER in AZ-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 UNITS and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, HOUSTON, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE, ARIZONA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS RL, PHILADELPHIA RL, CLEVELAND RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the ’23 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 117-101 for -12.79 units. As shown before with the -.08 unit return, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the ’24 season.
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, BALTIMORE, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, LA ANGELS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are actually off to a better start, 13-5 for +2.64 units.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-198 vs NYM), FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs TEX)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites proved worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is negative at 15-10 for -4.88 units.
System Matches: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-198 vs CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season. This angle is so far 12-5 in the two-and-a-half weeks and has won +1.14 units.
System Matches: FADE LA DODGERS (-198 vs NYM), FADE PHILADELPHIA (-198 vs CWS), FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in 2023 arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 34-43 record, for -4.00 units. This angle did win just shy of a unit last week and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+110 at CIN)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, we found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an R.O.I. of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game-winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The R.O.I. on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 23-18 for +6.16 units after a 6-10 for -3.96 units last week. The three-game teams are 12-12 for +1.02 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TEXAS (+170 at ATL)
3+ games – FADE NY METS (+164 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 13-13 for -5.2 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 at KC), PHILADELPHIA (-198 vs CWS), ATLANTA (-205 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-135 at COL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 11-8 for +0.19 units, a slower start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-170 at WSH), PLAY PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1462-1375 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -182.93 units. This represents an R.O.I. of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (+170 at LAD), TEXAS (+170 at ATL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1322-1717 (43.5%) for -164.75 units and an R.O.I. of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2948-2584 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.72 units and R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 829-710 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +24.55 units for backers and an R.O.I. of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-125 vs LAA), WASHINGTON (+142 vs HOU)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 423-354 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +25.01 units, for an R.O.I. of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-118 vs BOS), COLORADO (+114 vs SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 134-108 run (+52.72 units, ROI: 21.8%).
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+114 vs SEA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 16-44 (-13.25 units, ROI: -22.1%) in their last 60 tries.
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+170 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 59-63 (-29.98 units, ROI: -24.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-205 vs TEX), FADE BALTIMORE (-142 at KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NY METS +164 (+18 diff), DETROIT +130 (+35 diff), TEXAS +170 (+29 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -170 (+21 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DET-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.2), TOR-SD OVER 8 (+0.9), TB-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-1.2)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) MILWAUKEE (11-6) at (904) ST LOUIS (9-10)
Trend: Milwaukee is 3-7 (-7.15 units) vs St Louis with starter Freddy Peralta in last five seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-130 at STL)
Trend: Kyle Gibson is 0-6 (-7.25 units) vs MIL/CHC in last five seasons
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (+110 vs MIL)
(909) TAMPA BAY (11-9) at (910) NEW YORK-AL (13-6)
Trend: NYY is 5-10 (-5.93 units) vs AL East teams with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-162 vs TB)
Trend: NYY is 7-1 (+5.45 units) as a night large favorite of -155 or higher with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs TB)
(911) OAKLAND (8-11) at (912) CLEVELAND (13-6)
Trend: Cleveland is 3-5 (-6.75 units) as large favorite (-170 or more) by starter Triston McKenzie
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-170 vs OAK)
(915) DETROIT (10-9) at (916) MINNESOTA (6-11)
Trend: Jack Flaherty has taken care of business against lesser opponents, going 23-7 (+7.74 units) against teams with a 45% or lower win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+130 at MIN)
Trend: Minnesota is 9-1 (+8.08 units) in the last two years in starter Joe Ryan’s first five starts of the season (2-1, +0.30 units this season)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-155 vs DET)
(917) BOSTON (10-10) at (918) PITTSBURGH (11-8)
Trend: Boston is 4-0 (+4.90 units) on the road against NL with starter Brayan Bello
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (-102 at PIT)
(921) LOS ANGELES-AL (9-10) at (922) CINCINNATI (9-9)
Trend: Cincinnati is 11-6 (+5.86 units) at home with Nick Lodolo
System Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-125 vs LAA)
(923) HOUSTON (6-14) at (924) WASHINGTON (8-10)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 3-11 (-16.26 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-170 at WSH)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 2-7 (-6.58 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+142 vs HOU)
(925) TEXAS (11-9) at (926) ATLANTA (12-5)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 17-27 (-13.12 units) vs teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+170 at ATL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
