Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, April 29, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Top MLB Resources:
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-108 vs STL), TORONTO (-166 vs KC), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at NYM)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-108 vs STL), MILWAUKEE (-112 vs TB), PHILADELPHIA (-142 at LAA), ATLANTA (-155 at SEA), PITTSBURGH (-135 at OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in CHC-NYM, PLAY OVER in MIN-CWS, PLAY OVER in ATL-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, WASHINGTON, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, CINCINNATI, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA RL, PHILADELPHIA RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: NY METS, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, MILWAUKEE, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE, OAKLAND
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 58-66 record for +0.08 units. This angle did win, going 14-14 last week for +2.05 units and seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. CIN), NY YANKEES (+100 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (+140 at TOR), SEATTLE (+120 vs. ATL), OAKLAND (+105 vs. PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 32-29 for +6.13 units. The three-game teams are 17-19 for -0.06 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE DETROIT (-108 vs STL)
3-games – FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+136 vs MIN)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 31-25 for -2.21 units through Sunday, 4/27, after a great 10-4, +5 units week.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-162 at CWS), PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-148 at LAA)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 33 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 18-15 for -1.43 units.
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-108 vs CIN)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1479-1381 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -169.94 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (+100 at BAL), WASHINGTON (+114 at MIA), FADE MIAMI (-135 vs WSH), FADE MINNESOTA (-170 at CWS)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1340-1744 (43.5%) for -172.10 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-112 at DET), KANSAS CITY (+140 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-108 at MIL), LA DODGERS (-135 at AZ), PITTSBURGH (-135 at OAK)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2974-2613 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.37 units and a ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (+114 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (-120 vs. NYY), MIAMI (-135 vs. WSH), MILWAUKEE (-112 vs. TB), SAN DIEGO (-108 vs. CIN), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. PHI)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 248-207 (54.5%) for +37.72 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-112 vs TB), PLAY LA ANGELS (+120 vs PHI)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +114 (+23 diff), KANSAS CITY +140 (+19 diff), LA ANGELS +124 (+23 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -130 (+42 diff), MINNESOTA -162 (+19 diff), MILWAUKEE -112 (+18 diff), PITTSBURGH -125 (+16 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-NYM OVER 7.5 (+0.9), CIN-SD OVER 8 (+0.8), MIN-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.6), ATL-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-OAK UNDER 8 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) CHICAGO-NL (17-11) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (14-13)
Trend: Luis Severino is 11-4 (+6.40 units) in April/May in last 2+ years
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-142 vs CHC)
(907) CINCINNATI (15-13) at (908) SAN DIEGO (14-17)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is just 5-8 (-4.65 units) vs. losing teams in career
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-112 at SD)
(909) NEW YORK-AL (19-10) at (910) BALTIMORE (17-10)
Trend: NYY is 6-10 (-4.93 units) vs. AL East teams with starter Clarke Schmidt in career
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (+100 at BAL)
(913) MINNESOTA (14-13) at (914) CHICAGO-AL (6-22)
Trend: MIN is 16-2 (+12.00 units) vs. teams with a winning percentage of <42% with starter Joe Ryan since 2021
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-170 at CWS)
(915) ST LOUIS (13-15) at (916) DETROIT (16-12)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is 11-1 (+10.87 units) in the last 12 night games
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-108 vs STL)
(919) PHILADELPHIA (19-10) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (10-18)
Trend: PHI is 3-12 (-11.53 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-142 at LAA)
(921) ATLANTA (19-7) at (922) SEATTLE (15-13)
Trend: ATL was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (3-0,
+3.00 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-155 at SEA)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Mon 4/29-Thu 5/2
Trend: NY METS are 3-7 (30%, -10.6 units) in their last 10 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -106%
System Match: FADE NY METS (-142 vs CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM PLAYS TODAY
