The following MLB betting trends are featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 30, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

 

Top MLB Resources:

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: SLIGHT PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-130 at BOS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT GAME 1, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, TEXAS, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 UNITS and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CHC-NYM, TB-MIL, CIN-SD, ATL-SEA
PLAY UNDER in: PIT-OAK

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE SAN DIEGO (-142 vs CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors on road teams in March/April of 2023 were 101-65 (60.8%) for +15.3 units and ROI of +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, COLORADO, KANSAS CITY, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 164-139 for -13.92 units. For the second week in a row, results picked up last week as I believe we are starting to settle in for the 2024 season. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -22.9 units, this system is still providing about a 9-unit advantage even as it is performing below its usual expectations.
System Matches: MIAMI, NY METS, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, NY YANKEES, KANSAS CITY, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO, MILWAUKEE, TEXAS, PHILADELPHIA, SEATTLE, OAKLAND

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 60-68 record for +0.54 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+120 at TOR), CLEVELAND (+140 at HOU), SEATTLE (+105 vs ATL), OAKLAND (+114 vs PIT)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 32-29 for +6.13 units. The three-game teams are 17-20 for -1.06 units. I don’t expect these to continue for long as the foundation of this system is based in the fact that these teams don’t win over the long term.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TORONTO (-142 vs KC), FADE HOUSTON (-166 vs CLE), FADE BOSTON (+110 vs SF)

3+ games – FADE WASHINGTON (+124 at TEX)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 32-26 for -2.76 units through Monday, 4/28.
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (-175 at CWS)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 34 plays on this angle so far in 2024 and these teams are 18-16 for -2.58 units.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-142 vs. COL), PLAY SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. CIN), PLAY KANSAS CITY (+120 at TOR), PLAY MILWAUKEE (-180 vs. TB)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1342-1746 (43.5%) for -172.40 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+120 at MIA), ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-105 at DET), NY YANKEES (-120 at BAL), TAMPA BAY (+145 at MIL), PITTSBURGH (-135 at OAK), ATLANTA (-135 at SEA)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2977-2616 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -407.66 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-166 vs. CLE), BOSTON (+110 vs. SF), TORONTO (-142 vs. KC), LA ANGELS (+120 vs. PHI), OAKLAND (+114 vs. PIT)

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 839-717 (53.9%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +27.49 units for backers and an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+100 vs. NYY), SEATTLE (+114 vs. ATL), MIAMI (-142 vs. COL), NY METS (-130 vs. CHC), MILWAUKEE (-175 vs. TB), SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. CIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 45-94 skid (-24.99 units, ROI: -18%).
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (-142 vs COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 14-15 (+8.77 units, ROI: 30.2%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 55-118 (-47.50 units, ROI: -27.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (-142 vs COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 106-102 (+21.62 units, ROI: 10.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-142 vs COL), PLAY SAN DIEGO (-142 vs CIN)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 123-86 (+23.75 units, ROI: 11.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+130 at TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 18-45 (-11.16 units, ROI: -17.7%) in their last 63 tries.
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON at TEX (*if they fall into this line range, +130 currently)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI +120 (+20 diff), BALTIMORE +102 (+19 diff), CLEVELAND +140 (+29 diff), LA ANGELS +120 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS -148 (+19 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-SD OVER 7.5 (+1.5), CHC-NYM OVER 7 (+1.1), ATL-SEA OVER 7 (+1.1), SF-BOS OVER 8 (+0.9), TB-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), WSH-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-DET GAME 1 UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), MIN-CWS UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) COLORADO (7-21) at (952) MIAMI (6-24)
Trend: Miami is awful at home (2-15, -15.65 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (-142 vs COL)

(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (19-12) at (956) ARIZONA (13-17)
Trend: LAD trending Over at night (13-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(957) CINCINNATI (16-13) at (958) SAN DIEGO (14-18)
Trend: SD not as good vs RH starters (9-15, -7.96 units)
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (-142 vs CIN)

(959) NEW YORK-AL (19-11) at (960) BALTIMORE (18-10)
Trend: NYY trending Under at night (6-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(961) KANSAS CITY (17-13) at (962) TORONTO (15-15)
Trend: TOR trending Under vs AL Central/West (2-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(963) MINNESOTA (15-13) at (964) CHICAGO-AL (6-23)
Trend: CWS terrible vs RH starters (5-20, -12.47 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+145 vs MIN)

(965) CLEVELAND (19-9) at (966) HOUSTON (9-19)
Trend: Cleveland trending Over vs AL East/West (13-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(969) SAN FRANCISCO (14-15) at (970) BOSTON (16-13)
Trend: Boston has been good vs NL teams (5-1, +4.22 units)
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (+110 vs SF)

(975) PHILADELPHIA (19-11) at (976) LOS ANGELES-AL (11-18)
Trend: LAA hasn’t been good at home (4-9, -4.90 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+120 vs PHI)

(977) ATLANTA (19-8) at (978) SEATTLE (16-13)
Trend: ATL trending Under against AL teams (1-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

(981) ST LOUIS (13-15) at (982) DETROIT (16-12) (DH Game #1)
Trend: STL has been a bad bet during the DAY (4-10, -7.80 units)
System Match: FADE ST LOUIS (-105 at DET)

MLB Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(957) CINCINNATI (16-13) at (958) SAN DIEGO (14-18)
Trend: SD is 9-17 (-10.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently*)

(959) NEW YORK-AL (19-11) at (960) BALTIMORE (18-10)
Trend: BAL was 24-7 (+16.01 units) in the last 2+ seasons in home games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+100 vs. NYY)

Trend: BAL was 10-1 (+9.84 units) last season in Divisional Games with starter Dean Kremer
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+100 vs. NYY)

(961) KANSAS CITY (17-13) at (962) TORONTO (15-15)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 11-21 (-20.54 units) within the line range of -140 to -160 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-142 vs. KC)

Trend: Jose Berrios is 9-22 (-19.59 units) in night games as short favorite within line range of -120 to -145 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-142 vs. KC)

Series #7: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets, Mon 4/29-Thu 5/2
Trend: NY METS are 3-8 (27.3%, -12.08 units) in their last 11 games vs. Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -110%
System Match: FADE NY METS (-130 vs CHC)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

MIAMI     
Momentum  after series vs. WASHINGTON: 17-12 (58.6%) 10.98 units, ROI: 37.9%    
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 4/30 vs. Colorado
System Matches: PLAY MIAMI (-142 vs COL)

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