The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Atlanta has won 13 of the last 15 games against Colorado (86.7%, +7.98 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 53.2
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-198 at COL)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-66 in their last 96 tries (-21.76 units, ROI: -22.7%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN)

Trend: Gerrit Cole is 28-7 (+7.45 units) at home vs. teams with a losing record in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-192 vs. TEX)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 272-226 (54.6%) for +42.07 units and an ROI of 8.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 vs. CHC), BOSTON (-125 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): OAK-TOR

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full ’23 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the ’24 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 Units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-185 vs. TEX), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-120 vs. HOU), WASHINGTON (-108 vs. LAA), MINNESOTA (-118 vs. CLE), LA DODGERS (-115 vs. PIT)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-258 at CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (-112 at WSH), KANSAS  CITY (-135 vs. STL), CHICAGO CUBS (-258 at CWS), NY METS (+110 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and a ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): OAK-TOR

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 84-48 for -23.14 units and an ROI of -17.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-192 at COL), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 vs. DET), NY YANKEES GAME 2 (-205 vs. TEX)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/9, the record of this angle is again positive at 78-29 for +3.32 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-258 at CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 247-297 record for -14.38 units (ROI -2.6%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-108 at AZ), OAKLAND (+130 at TOR), HOUSTON (-102 at BOS), CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+136 vs BAL), ST LOUIS (+114 at KC), NY METS (+110 at SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 221-235 record for +6.36 units (ROI 1.4%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-108 at AZ), OAKLAND (+130 at TOR), HOUSTON (-102 at BOS), CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN), TAMPA BAY (+136 vs. BAL), ST LOUIS (+114 at KC), NY METS (+110 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 139-163 for -17.00 units. The three-game teams are 68-73 for -1.43 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE TORONTO (-155 vs OAK), FADE MINNESOTA (-118 vs CLE), FADE SEATTLE (-130 vs NYM)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 145-136 for -23.17 units (-8.2% ROI) through Friday, 8/9. We have seen far more lengthy losing streaks this season as compared to winning streaks, and I believe that is greatly affecting this system.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-180 at MIA), MILWAUKEE (-148 vs. CIN), HOUSTON (-102 at BOS), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 vs. DET), CHICAGO CUBS (-258 at CWS)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 144 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/9 and these teams are 78-66 for +3.67 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 33-22, +8.20-unit performance over the last eight weeks or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-192 at COL), CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1625-1511 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.40 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-108 vs. PIT)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1518-1958 (43.7%) for -189.72 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, OAKLAND, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, DETROIT

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3275-2876 (53.2%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -440.74 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, MILWAUKEE, KANSAS CITY, COLORADO, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS

Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 917-800 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +7.65 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+145 vs. SD), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 vs. DET)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 465-400 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.58 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (-108 vs. LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (-225 vs. DET)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 272-226 (54.6%) for +42.07 units and an ROI of 8.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+200 vs. CHC), BOSTON (-125 vs. HOU)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 27-85 skid (-40.76 units, ROI -36.4%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 63-143 (-63.94 units, ROI: -31%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 30-66 in their last 96 tries (-21.76 units, ROI: -22.7%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Matches: FADE CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN)

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 140-151 (+8.69 units, ROI: 3%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-192 at COL), PLAY PITTSBURGH (-112 at LAD)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -105 (+18 diff), OAKLAND +130 (+15 diff), TAMPA BAY +136 (+20 diff), TEXAS GAME 1 +130 (+16 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -198 (+25 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CIN-MIL OVER 8 (+0.7), ATL-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SD-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) SAN DIEGO (65-52) at (952) MIAMI (43-74)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (41-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(953) CINCINNATI (56-60) at (954) MILWAUKEE (66-49)
Trend: MIL pretty good vs divisional teams (24-13, +8.66 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-142 vs CIN)

(955) PHILADELPHIA (69-47) at (956) ARIZONA (64-53)
Trend: Over the total is 12-5 when PHI is a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(959) PITTSBURGH (56-59) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (67-49)
Trend: LAD slight Over at home (33-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(961) TEXAS (54-61) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (68-48) (DH Game #1)
Trend: NYY good vs. AL West/Central (30-10, +11.04 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs TEX)

(963) OAKLAND (48-69) at (964) TORONTO (54-62)
Trend: OAK worse on the road (19-39, -6.70 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+130 at TOR)

(967) CLEVELAND (67-49) at (968) MINNESOTA (65-50)
Trend: Under the total is 5-2 in the head-to-head series this season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(969) BALTIMORE (69-48) at (970) TAMPA BAY (58-57)
Trend: BAL better vs. divisional teams (25-12, +9.55 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-162 at TB)

(971) DETROIT (55-62) at (972) SAN FRANCISCO (60-58)
Trend: SF trending Over during the day (31-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(975) ST LOUIS (60-57) at (976) KANSAS CITY (64-53)
Trend: KC better at home (37-25, +8.42 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-135 vs. STL)

(977) CHICAGO-NL (58-60) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (28-90)
Trend: CWS terrible at night (18-52, -26.59 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+210 vs. CHC)

(979) NEW YORK-NL (61-55) at (980) SEATTLE (61-56)
Trend: SEA more Under at home (19-39 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(955) PHILADELPHIA (69-47) at (956) ARIZONA (64-53)
Trend: PHI is 10-22 (-10.68 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-108 at AZ)

(957) ATLANTA (60-55) at (958) COLORADO (43-74)
Trend: ATL is 13-4 (+10.23 units) in road game starts by Max Fried in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-192 at COL)

(961) TEXAS (54-61) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (68-48) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-6 (+15.88 units) in the last 28 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (+130 at NYY)

(967) CLEVELAND (67-49) at (968) MINNESOTA (65-50)
Trend: CLE is 1-7 (-5.90 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (-102 at MIN)

(973) LOS ANGELES-AL (51-65) at (974) WASHINGTON (53-64)
Trend: LAA is 1-10 (-9.95 units) on the road in the +105 to -130 line range for starter Griffin Canning in the last five years
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (-112 at WSH)

Trend: WSH is 3-9 (-5.96 units) as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 with Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-108 vs. LAA)

(977) CHICAGO-NL (58-60) at (978) CHICAGO-AL (28-90)
Trend: Justin Steele is 14-6 (+7.76 units) against teams with 45% or less win percentage
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-245 at CWS)

(981) TEXAS (54-61) at (982) NEW YORK-AL (68-48) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Gerrit Cole is 28-7 (+7.45 units) at home vs. teams with a losing record in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs. TEX)

Series #21: Atlanta at Colorado, Fri 8/9-Sun 8/11
Trend: Atlanta has won 13 of last 15 games against Colorado (86.7%, +7.98 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 53.2%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-192 at COL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday 8/19)

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