Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Valero Texas Open Best Bets:

Min Woo Lee did what you had to do this past weekend to win in Houston — drive for show (second in Driving Distance) and putt for dough (second in Strokes Gained: Putting). The Australian won his first PGA Tour event at the Texas Children’s Houston Open at -20 and cashed a 35-1 outright winner (our fourth of the season) for us in the process! 

After Lee, who had a five-shot lead at one point in the final round and was -8000 to win with five holes to play, hit his tee shot in the water on 16, Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland, who both had late rallies on Sunday’s back nine, all of a sudden had a chance to win the tournament but settled for a T-2 finish at -19. 

Sami Valimaki shot a 62 on Sunday to finish fourth outright. Fifth was shared by Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Taylor Pendrith and Alejandro Tosti. 

Michael Kim’s T-32 was good enough to lift him to No. 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings and earn him a Masters invitation for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, Ben Griffin’s T-18 brought him only to No. 51 in the OWGR. So Griffin (40-1 this week), like many others, will have to win this week’s Valero Texas Open in San Antonio to earn the last spot in next week’s Masters field. 

Some players are trying to get into Augusta next week and some are trying to tune up, like this week’s tournament favorite Ludvig Åberg (12-1), who played his college golf about six hours north at Texas Tech. 

Tommy Fleetwood (14-1) finished seventh here on debut last year. Fleetwood was T-7 along with Hideki Matsuyama (20-1), who is tuning up in his attempt for a second green jacket next week (2021).

Corey Conners (18-1) is a two-time winner (2019, 2023) at the Valero and his 2019 victory came after having to be a Monday qualifier just to get into the field. 

Patrick Cantlay (20-1) plays the Valero this year for the first time, looking for some form heading into next week while also looking for his first victory since August 2022. 

Two former Valero Texas Open winners are priced at 25-1: Jordan Spieth (2021 champion) and the defending Valero champion Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia won last year’s Valero in a playoff over Denny McCarthy (30-1).

Keegan Bradley (25-1), Daniel Berger (35-1), Si Woo Kim (35-1), Keith Mitchell (40-1), Tony Finau (40-1) make up the next rung of the odds board ladder.

Other former Valero champions in this week’s field include Charley Hoffman (80-1), Zach Johnson (300-1), Martin Laird (400-1) and Jimmy Walker (750-1).

The Event

The Valero Texas Open is the oldest professional golf tournament to be held in the same city in its entire existence, and its lineage dates to 1922. It is the sixth-oldest professional golf tournament worldwide and the third-oldest on the PGA Tour. The tournament has moved around all over the place from spring to fall on the PGA Tour schedule but was moved to the spring in 2009 and now seems to have found a home, having been scheduled for the week before the Masters back since 2019. San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corporation, a Fortune 500 international manufacturer of transportation fuels, petrochemical products and power, came aboard as the primary sponsor in 2002. The Valero ranks near the top of the PGA Tour in terms of money raised for various charitable organizations.

The Field

147 players are in this week’s Valero Texas Open field. 

Here is a list of the 27 players in the Valero field who are also playing in next week’s Masters:

Ludvig Åberg, Daniel Berger, Akshay Bhatia, Keegan Bradley, Sam Burns, Rafael Campos, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Tony Finau, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge, Max Homa, Zach Johnson, Tom Kim, Chris Kirk, Patton Kizzire, Thriston Lawrence, Hideki Matsuyama, Denny McCarthy, Maverick McNealy, J.T. Poston, Justin Rose, Adam Schenk, Jordan Spieth and Cameron Young. 

Jacob Bridgeman and K.H. Lee W/D from the field Tuesday morning. 

The Course

The Valero Texas Open moved to its present home of the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio in 2010. TPC San Antonio has two courses: The AT&T Canyons Course, designed by Pete Dye with a consultation from Bruce Lietzke, and the AT&T Oaks Course, designed by Greg Norman with a consultation from Sergio Garcia. The Oaks Course is a par-72 of 7,438 yards and is played at 1,100 feet of elevation (third highest on tour).

Some of the oak tree and brush-lined Rye (80%)/fescue (20%) fairways are on the tighter (28 yards on average) side. Players will hit into bigger (6,400 square feet), undulating but firm and elevated greens with Champion Bermudagrass over-seeded with Poa Trivialis that will run at an average 12 on the stimpmeter with deep bunkers that surround. The rough is relatively short (2.25 inches) and non-penal, so players do not have a lot of trouble lurking if they are wayward off the tee. It can get windy this time of year in Texas, so the winning score has varied from as high as 8 under par to 20 under par. Despite non-penal rough and only three water hazards on the layout, TPC San Antonio played as the seventh-most difficult out of 51 courses last year on the PGA Tour.

The closing holes here often give us an exciting finish, with two risk/reward holes making up the final two holes on the course. The par-3 16th kicks off this finishing trio, a huge donut-shaped green with a bunker in the middle of the putting surface. Followed by the drivable par-4 17th and the par-5 18th, played to an angled green and a stream protecting the front.

​Correlated courses to TPC San Antonio include PGA National, Riviera, Colonial, Memorial Park, Innisbrook, TPC Summerlin, TPC Scottsdale, Bay Hill.

Weather

Courtesy of AccuWeather, rain is likely for Friday and Saturday. The winds are calm in the morning but will get into the mid-teens in the afternoons. 

Valero Texas Open Recent History/Winners

2024: Akshay Bhatia (-20/268); 55-1*

2023: Corey Conners (-15/273); 25-1

2022: J.J. Spaun (-13/275); 150-1

2021: Jordan Spieth (-18/270); 12-1

2020: No Tournament (COVID-19)

2019: Corey Conners (-20/268); 200-1

2018: Andrew Landry (-17/271); 200-1

2017: Kevin Chappell (-12/276); 33-1

2016: Charley Hoffman (-12/276); 30-1

2015: Jimmy Walker (-11/277); 25-1

2014: Steven Bowditch (-8/280); 350-1

2013: Martin Laird (-14/274); 100-1

2012: Ben Curtis (-9/279); 150-1

2011: Brendan Steele (-8/280); 30-1

2010: Adam Scott (-14/274); 25-1

Playoff win over Denny McCarthy – *

​Trends and Angles

• ​9 of the last 12 events played the week before the Masters were won by a player who was not in the Masters field.
• Of the last 13 winners, six were winning a PGA Tour event for the first time.
• Each of the last 11 winners has played here at least once before, and 10 of 11 made the cut on their most recent visit.
• Since play began at the Oaks Course in 2010, the third-round leader/co-leader has gone on to win nine times.

Statistical Analysis

In four of the last six Valero Texas Opens, the winner has ranked first for Strokes Gained: Approach during the week. 

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Henrik Norlander 0.969
2. Tom Kim 0.878
3. Jackson Suber 0.780
4. Tommy Fleetwood 0.771
5. Tom Hoge 0.715
6. Ryan Gerard 0.708
7. Sami Valimaki 0.605
8. Bud Cauley 0.563
9. Keegan Bradley 0.549
10. Denny McCarthy 0.468
11. Charley Hoffman 0.461
12. Andrew Putnam 0.461
13. Doug Ghim 0.460
14. Hideki Matsuyama 0.451
15. Maverick McNealy 0.450
16. Patrick Cantlay 0.443
17. Joel Dahmen 0.414

The average Driving Accuracy here in San Antonio is lower than the tour average mainly because of wind but also tighter fairways. However, the rough is non-penal.

Neither distance nor accuracy has proved to be all that important here, so Good Drives Gained looks to be the best starting point for off-the-tee performance.

Good Drives Gained measures drives where the player either hits the fairway off the tee OR the player misses the fairway but still hits the green or fringe in regulation.

Good Drives Gained (Last 36 rounds)

1. Tommy Fleetwood 41.3
2. Ben Griffin 32.9
3. Ben Martin 32.7
4. Andrew Putnam 26.8
5. Rico Hoey 24.2
6. Ryo Hisatsune 24
7. Steven Fisk 23.2
8. Corey Conners 22.5
9. Max McGreevy 21.6
10. Matt Wallace 21.4
11. Daniel Berger 21.2
12. Joel Dahmen 20.9
13. Takumi Kanaya 20.5
14. Akshay Bhatia 20.4
15. Ben Kohles 19.9
16. Doug Ghim 19.9
17. Gary Woodland 19

Hitting greens in regulation is not necessarily a gimme here because of the run-off collection areas, so players will have to scramble for pars.

Scrambling (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 71.89%
2. Philip Knowles 68.91
3. Matteo Manassero 68.83
4. Brandt Snedeker 68.11
5. Brice Garnett 68.09
6. Paul Peterson 67.77
7. Daniel Berger 67.52
8. Mac Meissner 67.48
9. Lee Hodges 67.42
10. Alex Smalley 66.67
11. Henrik Norlander 66.47
12. Nate Lashley 66.22
13. Patrick Rodgers 66.11
14. Takumi Kanaya 66.06
15. Sam Ryder 65.87
16. Matt Wallace 65.79
17. Sam Stevens 65.40
18. Denny McCarthy 65.34
19. Jacob Bridgeman 65.07
20. Andrew Novak 65.07
21. Bud Cauley 65.04

While there are only 64 bunkers on the course, players will find them due to the winds and they are some of the deeper bunkers on tour.

Sand Save Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 82.00%
2. Bud Cauley 78.38
3. Matt Fitzpatrick 73.81
4. Matteo Manassero 73.81
5. Ryan Palmer 72.73
6. Keith Mitchell 72.34
7. Ludvig Åberg 72.22
8. Matt Wallace 71.43
9. Jeremy Paul 70.73
10. Andrew Novak 70.69
11. Si Woo Kim 70.00
12. Quade Cummins 69.44
13. Brandt Snedeker 69.39
14. Brice Garnett 69.23
15. Ryo Hisatsune 69.05
16. Sam Burns 68.42
17. Luke List 68.00
18. Alex Smalley 68.00
19. Vince Whaley 67.80
20. Sam Ryder 67.39

While only six of the last 14 winners of the Valero have finished inside the top 10 in Strokes Gained Putting: Putting the year they won, it is still worth examining the putting form coming into the event.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Brandt Snedeker 0.878
2. Sam Ryder 0.857
3. Sam Burns 0.789
4. Lee Hodges 0.779
5. Jacob Bridgeman 0.728
6. Akshay Bhatia 0.646
7. Harry Hall 0.640
8. Frankie Capan II 0.606
9. Jake Knapp 0.572
10. Jesper Svensson 0.558
11. Sami Valimaki 0.554
12. Denny McCarthy 0.540
13. Zach Johnson 0.498
14. Quade Cummins 0.495
15. Justin Lower 0.481
16. Matteo Manassero 0.464
17. Bud Cauley 0.427
18. Emiliano Grillo 0.427
19. Ryan Gerard 0.412
20. Matt Kuchar 0.412

The greens are contoured and have various slopes to them, which affects approach shots the most, but they can be tricky for players to manage to avoid bogeys.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Brice Garnett 10.71% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
2. Andrew Putnam 11.93
3. Denny McCarthy 11.98
4. Lee Hodges 12.27
5. Sam Ryder 12.35
6. Alex Smalley 12.41
7. Daniel Berger 12.70
8. Victor Perez 12.73
9. Paul Peterson 12.78
10. Jeremy Paul 12.82
11. Henrik Norlander 12.84
12. Kevin Roy 12.89
13. Hideki Matsuyama 13.15
14. Keith Mitchell 13.15
15. Quade Cummins 13.19
16. Ricky Castillo 13.33
17. Steven Fisk 13.37
18. Akshay Bhatia 13.46
19. Brian Harman 13.47

The four par-5s on this layout average 588 yards with two of them being over 600 yards and not always reachable in two shots.

Strokes Gained: Par-5s — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

1. Patrick Cantlay 0.62
2. Si Woo Kim 0.58
3. Andrew Novak 0.53
4. Hideki Matsuyama 0.47
5. Niklas Norgaard 0.46 (26 rounds)
6. Justin Rose 0.45
7. Jesper Svensson 0.44
8. Lee Hodges 0.44
9. Jacob Bridgeman 0.41
10. Jeremy Paul 0.41 (26 rounds)
11. Steven Fisk 0.40 (31 rounds)
12. Keith Mitchell 0.39
13. Jake Knapp 0.38
14. Ludvig Åberg 0.38
15. Kurt Kitayama 0.35
16. Matt Wallace 0.35
17. J.T. Poston 0.30

If the winds are not blowing too hard, low scores can be had out here as Akshay Bhatia showed with a first-round 63 and his fellow playoff participant Denny McCarthy displayed with a final-round 63. Birdie barrages can happen on this course.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2025 PGA Tour season)

1. Patrick Cantlay 28.24%
2. Ludvig Åberg 27.19
3. Akshay Bhatia 26.92
4. Harry Hall 26.80
5. Jesper Svensson 26.43
6. Niklas Norgaard 25.93
7. Erik van Rooyen 25.78
8. Danny Walker 25.78
9. Jake Knapp 25.61
10. Sam Burns 25.40
11. Maverick McNealy 25.35
12. Si Woo Kin 25.33
13. Hideki Matsuyama 25.19
14. Bud Cauley 25.00
15. Isaiah Salinda 24.90
16. Lee Hodges 24.54

Selections

Daniel Berger (35-1, FanDuel)

Berger has seven top-25 finishes in his last nine starts, including runners-up at the 2024 season-ending RSM Classic, where he kept his PGA Tour card, and at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 

This time last year, Berger was around 600 in the OWGR and on the comeback trail after missing almost a year and half with a back injury. Now he has climbed his way back into the OWGR Top 50 and will be in the Masters for the first time in three years.

However, unlike many of his fellow Masters competitors, he looks to have his sole focus on winning this event, considering it is now over a four-year winless drought on the PGA Tour. 

In both 2016 and 2017, Berger won the FedEx St. Jude Classic the week before the U.S. Open. Furthermore, he has past success in the Lone Star State with a victory at Colonial Country Club in 2020, third in 2021 at TPC Craig Ranch, and two top-5s (2016, 2017) at the Golf Club of Houston. 

Bud Cauley (53-1, Circa Sports)

Cauley, like Berger, has missed time with injuries. However, he missed over three full years from late 2020 to early 2024 because of medical complications from a June 2018 car accident. 

He made his full-time return last year and made 12 of 19 cuts playing both the PGA and Korn Ferry Tours.

However, he looks like he is close to back to his form of the early 2010, when he appeared to be a can’t-miss prospect on the PGA Tour. 

The former World No. 1 amateur comes into this week with a T-6 at The Players and a T-4 at the Valspar. 

Sam Stevens (55-1, FanDuel)

Stevens could be the “horse for course” guy this week, considering he finished runner-up in 2023 and also 14th and 19th on two other appearances at TPC San Antonio. 

He finished runner-up to Harris English (a 100-1 outright winner for us!) at the Farmers Insurance Open in January.

Stevens was T-18 last week in Houston, where he led the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green. 

Lee Hodges (70-1, FanDuel)

While Hodges certainly did not miss as much time as Berger or Cauley did with injuries, he did miss six weeks with a rib injury before returning at Houston last week and shooting 9 under on the weekend (T-11 finish).

Hodges’ good form dates to last fall with two top-10s in his last four events, plus two more top-10s at the Sony and Farmers Insurance Opens to start 2025.

He ranks fourth for Total Driving and sixth for Strokes Gained: Putting thus far this season and finished sixth here in 2023.

Rico Hoey (70-1, Bet365)

Hoey posted his best finish of 2025 with a T-11 last week in Houston and is coming off his best approach game performance of the season, ranking ninth for GIR. 

He is already one of the best drivers on the tour, ranking second on the season for both Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee.

Ryan Gerard (75-1, FanDuel)

Gerard finished T-9 last week in Houston but ranked second in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. His irons have been good all year as he is sixth in this week’s field for SG: Approach.

He also has posted top-20s in Mexico and at the Farmers.

Tom Hoge (100-1, FanDuel)

Hoge finished T-3 at The Players three weeks ago, leading the field for Strokes Gained: Approach.

He is typically near the top of the tour on Approach, being one of the best iron flushers out there and ranks fifth in this week’s field for the category. 

Hoge, who played his college golf at TCU, has always been solid in Texas and has two top-12 finishes here in five career appearances.

Victor Perez (125-1, Circa Sports)

Perez finished 18th last week but started with a 66 and finished with a 65. 

The Frenchman has gone 18-22-18 in his last three events. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be posted on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks