Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, August 18, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (20-39 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
Trend: BOS is 6-15 (-10.30 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+110 at BAL)
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 354-331 (51.7%) for +32.68 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-110 vs. KC), LA ANGELS (+145 vs. ATL)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 242-253 record, for +10.98 units (ROI 2.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+105 vs. DET), CINCINNATI (-110 vs. KC), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (+110 at MIL), OAKLAND (+140 vs. SF)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:
- Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
- Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
- Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units– ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
- Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
- Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-395 vs. CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-130 vs CLE)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): HOUSTON (-395 vs. CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): WATCH FOR SAN DIEGO (*-198 at COL currently)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY, ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NONE YET TODAY
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 99-51 for -14.49 units and an ROI of -9.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-192 vs. MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-192 vs. TOR)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/17, the record of this angle is at 85-33 for -0.08 units (huge road favorite loss of -360 by NYY on 8/12).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-198 at COL), HOUSTON (-395 vs. CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 56-34 since opening day of 2024 and has lost -16.93 units, an ROI of -18.8%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-192 vs MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 270-316 record, for -7.48 units (ROI -1.3%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+105 vs. DET), CINCINNATI (-110 vs. KC), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (+110 at MIL), OAKLAND (+140 vs. SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 242-253 record for +10.98 units (ROI 2.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+105 vs. DET), CINCINNATI (-110 vs. KC), TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. AZ), CLEVELAND (+110 at MIL), OAKLAND (+140 vs. SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 144-168 for -17.79 units. The three-game teams are 75-79 for -0.87 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE BOSTON (+110 at BAL), FADE PITTSBURGH (+140 vs. SEA)
3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-110 at CIN), FADE MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. CLE)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 153 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/17 and these teams are 84-69 for +5.12 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 39-25, +9.65-unit performance over the last eight weeks or so.
System Matches (PLAY): SEATTLE (-166 at PIT)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 354-331 (51.7%) for +32.68 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-110 vs. KC), LA ANGELS (+145 vs. ATL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1635-1528 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -189.11 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-175 at LAA), KANSAS CITY (-110 at CIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1531-1976 (43.7%) for -192.87 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, TORONTO, MIAMI, ARIZONA, WASHINGTON, SAN FRANCISCO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3304-2892 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -431.47 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +150 (+20 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +310 (+70 diff), PITTSBURGH +140 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -110 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAD-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), SD-COL OVER 11 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-1.0)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MIAMI (45-78) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (64-59)
Trend: MIA slight Over during the day (30-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(953) WASHINGTON (55-69) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (73-50)
Trend: Umder the total is on an 8-2 run in the WSH-PHI series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(955) LOS ANGELES-NL (72-52) at (956) ST LOUIS (61-62)
Trend: STL is 13-8 as a home underdog this season
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING ST LOUIS (-105 vs LAD)
(959) BOSTON (65-57) at (960) BALTIMORE (72-52)
Trend: BOS slight Over on the road (35-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(961) CHICAGO-AL (30-94) at (962) HOUSTON (66-56)
Trend: CWS bad on the road (12-50, -31.05 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+310 at HOU)
(963) MINNESOTA (70-53) at (964) TEXAS (56-68)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (20-39 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(965) NEW YORK-AL (73-51) at (966) DETROIT (60-64)
Trend: NYY not good bet vs. LH starters (13-18, -19.04 units)
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (+105 at DET)
(969) KANSAS CITY (68-55) at (970) CINCINNATI (60-63)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (19-29, -13.10 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-110 vs KC)
(973) CLEVELAND (72-51) at (974) MILWAUKEE (71-52)
Trend: CLE more Under against NL teams (11-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(975) TORONTO (57-66) at (976) CHICAGO-NL (61-63)
Trend: CHC better vs. AL teams (23-13, +11.61 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-192 vs TOR)
(977) SAN FRANCISCO (62-63) at (978) OAKLAND (53-70)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (17-23, -10.62 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-166 at OAK)
(979) ATLANTA (65-58) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-70)
Trend: LAA not as good at home (27-39, -9.63 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+145 vs ATL)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(953) WASHINGTON (55-69) at (954) PHILADELPHIA (73-50)
Trend: Taijuan Walker is 19-6 (+9.01 units) as a home favorite of -130 or higher in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-180 vs WSH)
(959) BOSTON (65-57) at (960) BALTIMORE (72-52)
Trend: BOS is 6-15 (-10.30 units) in the months of August/September by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+110 at BAL)
(961) CHICAGO-AL (30-94) at (962) HOUSTON (66-56)
Trend: HOU is 10-3 (+3.05 units) as a home day game favorite of -150 or higher by starter Framber Valdez
System Match: PLAY HOUSTON (-395 vs CWS)
(963) MINNESOTA (70-53) at (964) TEXAS (56-68)
Trend: Pablo Lopez is 16-4 (+11.05 units) in the short favorite line range of -118 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (*if they fall into this line range, -115 currently)
(967) SEATTLE (63-61) at (968) PITTSBURGH (58-64)
Trend: SEA is 14-7 (+2.45 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 at PIT)
(973) CLEVELAND (72-51) at (974) MILWAUKEE (71-52)
Trend: MIL is 7-7 (-3.04 units) as a favorite of -125 or higher by starter Colin Rea
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-130 vs. CLE)
(977) SAN FRANCISCO (62-63) at (978) OAKLAND (53-70)
Trend: OAK is 9-20 (-7.10 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last three years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+140 vs SF)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/19)
