The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, August 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

BAL letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 10-20 (33.3%) -9.60 units, ROI: -32%      
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (+120 at NYM)

Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-6 (-7.22 units) as a starter vs. BOS in his career
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-135 vs BOS)

Trend: CWS more Under vs. LH starters (7-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-170 vs. CIN), TEXAS (-130 vs. PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 471-403 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.48 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+105 vs. TB)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 am ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (-238 vs. CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON (-135 vs. BOS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-205 at MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, BALTIMORE, TEXAS, SAN DIEGO, SAN FRANCISCO, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-170 vs. CIN), TEXAS (-130 vs. PIT)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LAA-KC

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/18, the record of this angle is at 86-34 for -1.13 units (huge road favorite loss of -360 by NYY on 8/12).
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-238 vs CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 56-35 since opening day 2024 and has lost -18.85 units, an ROI of -20.7%. While still solid results, this angle has cooled of late.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-238 vs CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 272-320 record for -9.56 units (ROI -1.6%). This is performing below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+170 vs. AZ), LA ANGELS (+170 at KC), CINCINNATI (+142 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+110 at TEX)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 244-257 record for +8.90 units (ROI 1.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+142 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (+110 at TEX)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 144-170 for -19.79 units. The three-game teams are 77-79 for +1.13 units.
System Matches: 3+ games – FADE KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 154 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 8/18 and these teams are 85-69 for +6.12 units. This angle was stuck in neutral for most of the early part of the season but has enjoyed a 40-25, +10.65-unit performance over the last nine weeks or so.
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+142 at TOR)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1637-1528 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -187.11 units. This represents an ROI of -5.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): SEATTLE (+114 at LAD)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1537-1979 (43.7%) for -188.43 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+142 at TOR), BOSTON (+114 at HOU), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 at SF), LA ANGELS (+170 at KC)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3306-2894 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -431.65 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA), TEXAS (-125 vs. PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 471-403 (53.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +15.48 units, for an ROI of 1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+105 vs. TB)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA ANGELS +170 (+15 diff), CINCINNATI +142 (+28 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -125 (+18 diff), TEXAS -130 (+15 diff), LA DODGERS -135 (+22 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-HOU OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-KC UNDER 9 (-1.0), CWS-SF UNDER 8 (-0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) ARIZONA (69-56) at (902) MIAMI (46-78)
Trend: MIA trending Over at HOME (43-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(903) BOSTON (65-58) at (904) HOUSTON (67-56)
Trend: BOS not as good vs. LH starters (15-21, -9.27 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+114 at HOU)

(905) LOS ANGELES-AL (53-71) at (906) KANSAS CITY (69-55)
Trend: KC better at home (38-25, +9.42 units)
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-205 vs. LAA)

(907) TAMPA BAY (62-61) at (908) OAKLAND (53-71)
Trend: Over the total is 11-6 when TB is a road favorite this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(909) BALTIMORE (73-52) at (910) NEW YORK-NL (64-60)
Trend: BAL trending Over on the road (36-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

(911) CINCINNATI (60-64) at (912) TORONTO (58-66)
Trend: CIN more Under vs. AL teams (10-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(913) PITTSBURGH (58-65) at (914) TEXAS (57-68)
Trend: TEX heavy Under at home (21-39 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(917) CHICAGO-AL (30-95) at (918) SAN FRANCISCO (63-63)
Trend: CWS more Under vs. LH starters (7-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(919) SEATTLE (64-61) at (920) LOS ANGELES-NL (73-52)
Trend: SEA not as good on the road (27-35, -14.37 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+114 at LAD)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(903) BOSTON (65-58) at (904) HOUSTON (67-56)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-6 (-7.22 units) vs. BOS in his career
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-135 vs BOS)

Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 14-19 (-14.31 units) as a night home favorite in career
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-135 vs. BOS)

(909) BALTIMORE (73-52) at (910) NEW YORK-NL (64-60)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 14-28 (-8.08 units) on the road since 2020
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (+120 at NYM)

Trend: Trevor Rogers is 11-33 (-18.75 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
System Match: FADE BALTIMORE (+120 at NYM)

(911) CINCINNATI (60-64) at (912) TORONTO (58-66)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 10-18 (-18.79 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-170 vs. CIN)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

BALTIMORE      
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 10-20 (33.3%) -9.60 units, ROI: -32%    
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/19 at NY Mets
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (+120 at NYM)

MIAMI      
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 11-18 (37.9%) -5.58 units, ROI: -19.2%
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/19 vs. Arizona
System Matches: FADE MIAMI (+170 vs AZ)

SAN DIEGO       
Momentum after series vs. COLORADO: 20-10 (66.7%) 12.47 units, ROI: 41.6% 
Next betting opportunity: Monday 8/19 vs. Minnesota
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. MIN)

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