The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 22, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Home teams are 6-21 (22.2%, -21.65 units) in the last 27 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
The ROI on this trend is -80.2%.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-155 vs. LAA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 273-229 (54.4%) for +38.90 units and an ROI of 7.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. NYM)

Trend: Gerrit Cole is 29-6 (+13.40 units) vs AL Central teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CLE)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. DET)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY (watch for PITTSBURGH vs. CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-142 vs. CIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 98-52 for -17.27 units and a ROI of -11.5%.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. DET)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 278-332 record for -13.66 units (ROI -2.2%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+120 at PIT), CLEVELAND (+154 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+130 at TOR), HOUSTON (+130 at BAL)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 249-264 record for +7.92 units (ROI 1.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+120 at PIT), LA ANGELS (+130 at TOR), HOUSTON (+130 at BAL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1638-1533 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -191.11 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+120 at PIT), ST LOUIS (+105 vs. MIL)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1545-1983 (43.8%) for -182.81 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+130 at BAL), COLORADO (+114 at WSH), CLEVELAND (+154 at NYY), LA ANGELS (+130 at TOR)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3314-2901 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -433.02 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-135 vs. COL), NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CLE), TORONTO (-155 vs. LAA), ST LOUIS (+105 vs. MIL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 273-229 (54.4%) for +38.90 units and an ROI of 7.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. NYM)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +154 (+15 diff), DETROIT +164 (+35 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-ATL OVER 8 (+0.9), NYM-SD OVER 7 (+0.6), DET-CHC OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) COLORADO (47-80) at (952) WASHINGTON (57-70)
Trend: COL not good bet vs. LH starters (13-27, -8.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+114 at WSH)

(953) MILWAUKEE (73-53) at (954) ST LOUIS (62-64)
Trend: MIL is 12-3 in the last 15 of the series vs STL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-125 at STL)

(957) PHILADELPHIA (74-52) at (958) ATLANTA (67-59)
Trend: Over the total is 13-5 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(959) NEW YORK-NL (66-61) at (960) SAN DIEGO (72-56)
Trend: SD good vs. NL East/Central (35-21, +11.00 units)
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-162 vs. NYM)

(961) CLEVELAND (73-53) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (74-53)
Trend: CLE trending Over vs. AL East/West (31-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(963) TAMPA BAY (64-62) at (964) OAKLAND (54-73)
Trend: TB more Under vs. AL West/Central (18-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-73) at (966) TORONTO (59-68)
Trend: TOR slight Over at home (37-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(969) DETROIT (62-65) at (970) CHICAGO-NL (62-65)
Trend: CHC better vs. AL teams (24-15, +9.38 units)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO CUBS (-198 vs. DET)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) COLORADO (47-80) at (952) WASHINGTON (57-70)
Trend: WSH is 10-4 (+6.49 units) in day games against teams with a <=44% win pct with starter Patrick Corbin in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-135 vs. COL)

(953) MILWAUKEE (73-53) at (954) ST LOUIS (62-64)
Trend: MIL is 5-7 (-5.15 units) vs. St Louis with starter Freddy Peralta in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-125 at STL)

(957) PHILADELPHIA (74-52) at (958) ATLANTA (67-59)
Trend: PHI is 8-16 (-11.58 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez last three seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-105 at ATL)

(959) NEW YORK-NL (66-61) at (960) SAN DIEGO (72-56)
Trend: Luis Severino is 6-16 (-8.83 units) as an underdog in last two seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (+136 at SD)

(961) CLEVELAND (73-53) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (74-53)
Trend: CLE is 2-8 (-5.97 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+154 at NYY)

Trend: Gerrit Cole is 29-6 (+13.40 units) vs. AL Central teams in last five seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-185 vs. CLE)

Series #2: LA Angels at Toronto, Thu 8/22-Sun 8/25
Trend: Home teams are 6-21 (22.2%, -21.65 units) in the last 27 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays.
– The ROI on this trend is -80.2%.
System Matches: FADE TORONTO (-155 vs. LAA)

Series #11: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Thu 8/22-Sun 8/25
Trend: Cincinnati is 3-10 (23.1%, -7.20 units) in last 13 games at Pittsburgh
– The ROI on this trend is -55.4%
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (+120 at PIT)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 8/23)

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