Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, August 31, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: AZ is 3-14 (-8.86 units) vs. LA Dodgers with start by Merrill Kelly System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+114 vs. LAD)
Trend: CWS trending Under vs LH starters (8-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 357-338 (51.4%) for +28.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs. MIL), TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. SD), TEXAS (-166 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, NY METS, BALTIMORE
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): HOUSTON (-142 vs. KC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, NY METS, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): DETROIT (-142 vs. BOS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/30, the record of this angle is at 93-36 for +0.29 units (huge loss of -360 by NYY on 8/24).
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-192 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 59-36 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -19.91 units, an ROI of -21%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (-192 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 304-362 record for -13.29 units (ROI -2%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it, especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+136 at PHI), OAKLAND (+142 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+142 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (+110 at TB)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 274-286 record, for +12.99 units (ROI 2.3%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+136 at PHI), OAKLAND (+142 at TEX), ST LOUIS (+142 at NYY), SAN DIEGO (+110 at TB)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 357-338 (51.4%) for +28.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+105 vs. MIL), TAMPA BAY (-130 vs. SD), TEXAS (-166 vs. OAK)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1655-1545 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -187.09 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, OAKLAND, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1565-1998 (43.9%) for -174.49 units and an ROI. of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, KANSAS CITY, MIAMI
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3337-2924 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -437.17 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, WASHINGTON, TAMPA BAY, NY YANKEES, CLEVELAND, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 934-815 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +6.23 units for backers and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-148 vs. TOR)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-119 skid (-41.49 units, ROI: -24.3%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 vs. NYM)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage. They are just 66-147 (-64.39 units, ROI: -30.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 vs. NYM)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-170 run (+34.23 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+160 vs. NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO +124 (+34 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -112 (+29 diff), SAN FRANCISCO -148 (+31 diff), NY METS -192 (+40 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-SF OVER 7.5 (+0.6), KC-HOU OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-LAA UNDER 8 (-0.6), PIT-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (69-66) at (902) WASHINGTON (61-74)
Trend: WSH slight Over vs. NL Central/West (33-21 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(903) ATLANTA (74-61) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (79-56)
Trend: PHI better at night (56-34, +6.75 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. ATL)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (81-54) at (908) ARIZONA (76-59)
Trend: AZ slight Over as home underdog (10-6 O/U) this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(909) MIAMI (49-86) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (68-68)
Trend: MIA trending Under on the road (26-39 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(911) BOSTON (70-65) at (912) DETROIT (68-68)
Trend: BOS not as good vs. LH starters (15-22, -10.27 units)
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+120 at DET)
(913) OAKLAND (59-76) at (914) TEXAS (63-72)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (22-42 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(915) KANSAS CITY (75-61) at (916) HOUSTON (73-62)
Trend: HOU not as good vs. LH starters (17-20, -12.12 units)
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-142 vs. KC)
(919) SEATTLE (69-66) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-80)
Trend: SEA more Under vs divisional opponents (11-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(921) ST LOUIS (67-68) at (922) NEW YORK-AL (79-56)
Trend: STL slight Under during the day (21-33 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(923) SAN DIEGO (77-60) at (924) TAMPA BAY (66-68)
Trend: TB better vs. NL teams (25-16, +6.75 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-130 vs SD)
(927) NEW YORK-NL (71-64) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (31-105)
Trend: CWS trending Under vs. LH starters (8-19 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(929) BALTIMORE (78-58) at (930) COLORADO (50-86)
Trend: BAL slight over on the road (39-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 11.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) ATLANTA (74-61) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (79-56)
Trend: Max Fried is 18-5 (+11.15 units) in road starts the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+124 at PHI)
(905) MILWAUKEE (79-56) at (906) CINCINNATI (64-72)
Trend: Frankie Montas 1-8 (-8.28 units) vs. NL Central
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-125 at CIN)
(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (81-54) at (908) ARIZONA (76-59)
Trend: AZ is 3-14 (-8.86 units) vs. LA Dodgers with start by Merrill Kelly System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+114 vs. LAD)
(909) MIAMI (49-86) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (68-68)
Trend: MIA is 11-7 (+5.63 units) as shorter underdog -105 to +135 with starter Edward Cabrera in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (+124 at SF)
(915) KANSAS CITY (75-61) at (916) HOUSTON (73-62)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 15-19 (-13.31 units) as a night home favorite in career
System Match: FADE HOUSTON (-142 vs. KC)
(919) SEATTLE (69-66) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-80)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 18-7 (+14.26 units) vs. AL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+140 vs. SEA)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #10: Boston at Detroit, Fri 8/30-Sun 9/1
Trend: Detroit is 3-13 (18.8%, -8.99 units) in the last 16 games vs. Boston
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -56.2%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (-148 vs. BOS)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 9/2)
