The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, July 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1571-1461 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.85 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-142 at TOR)

Trend: COL not as good vs. NL Central/East (7-21, -10.16 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+130 vs. MIL)

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 4-10 (-8.15 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-105 vs NYM)

Trend: HOU trending Under vs. AL Central/West (11-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH MILWAUKEE at COL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units thru 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: MILWAUKEE, NY METS, HOUSTON

(NO OTHER QUALIFYING BULLPEN SYSTEMS TODAY)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1571-1461 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.85 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-142 at TOR)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3176-2764 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -391.12 units and an ROI of -6.6%.
System Matches (FADE): COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO +120 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -155 (+35 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-WSH OVER 8 (+0.6)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(951) NEW YORK-NL (40-41) at (952) WASHINGTON (39-44)
Trend: NYM trending Over on the road (22-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(953) MILWAUKEE (50-34) at (954) COLORADO (28-55)
Trend: MIL slight Under vs. LH starters (6-12 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 11.5)

Trend: COL not as good vs. NL Central/East (7-21, -10.16 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)

(955) HOUSTON (42-41) at (956) TORONTO (38-45)
Trend: HOU trending Under vs. AL Central/West (11-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) NEW YORK-NL (40-41) at (952) WASHINGTON (39-44)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 4-10 (-8.15 units) in home games vs. teams with losing records in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-105 vs. NYM)

(953) MILWAUKEE (50-34) at (954) COLORADO (28-55)
Trend: COL is 2-8 (-6.75 units) vs. NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+130 vs. MIL)

Series #8: Milwaukee at Colorado, Mon 7/1-Thu 7/4
Trend: Home teams are 13-3 (81.25%, +9.65 units) in the last 16 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 60.3%
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+130 vs MIL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday 7/5)

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