Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 10, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: WSH is 10-37 (-25.66 units) vs. divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+160 at NYM)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 130-94 (+23.08 units, ROI: 10.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-142 at LAA)
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 349-321 (52.1%) for +40.01 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-185 vs CHC), MILWAUKEE (-162 vs PIT)
Trend: LAD just 1-4 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at PHI)
Trend: SF is 14-2 (+9.70 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons (including 11-0 at home.
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs. TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): BOSTON (-185 vs OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. SEA), PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs. LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY (WATCH FOR MINNESOTA at CWS GAME 2)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1, KANSAS CITY GAME 2, BALTIMORE, SAN DIEGO, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CLE-DET, SEA-SD, TOR-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (-142 vs. KC), SAN DIEGO (-142 vs. SEA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-1.5 vs. OAK), HOUSTON (-1.5 vs. MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 669-564 for -31.35 units. This is well below usual standards after a couple of losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON, MILWAUKEE, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, ST LOUIS (BOTH GAMES), SAN FRANCISCO, MINNESOTA (BOTH GAMES)
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 63-37 for -15.80 units and a ROI of -15.8%.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-225 vs. MIA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the first half of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is back to positive at 68-27 for +0.53 units after some big losses over the last two weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA GAME 2 (-198 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 198-231 record for -3.75 units (ROI -0.9%). This angle did produce +3.04 units over the eight days (15-13).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+160 at NYM), NY YANKEES (+105 at TB), SEATTLE (+120 at SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 176-176 record for +16.36 units (ROI 4.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. This angle has really stabilized over the past month or so.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (+105 at TB), SEATTLE (+120 at SD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 107-129 for -18.63 units. The 3-game teams are 53-57 for -1.34 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+136 at MIL), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+154 at BAL)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 121-107 for -7.08 units (-3.1% ROI) through Tuesday, 7/9. Over the last two-plus weeks, this system has taken a big hit (-10.24 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-118 at AZ), TEXAS (-130 at LAA), MINNESOTA GAME 1 (-162 at CWS)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 109 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/9, and these teams are 59-50 for +3.23 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 14-6, +7.88-unit performance over the last three weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+160 at NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 349-321 (52.1%) for +40.01 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-185 vs CHC), MILWAUKEE (-162 vs PIT)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1581-1474 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -177.41 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY GAME 1, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, BOSTON, OAKLAND, PITTSBURGH
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1468-1912 (43.4%) for -199.36 units and an R.O.I. of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (+114 at PHI)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3193-2791 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -412.48 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1, CHICAGO WHITE SOX GAME 1, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI, NY METS, BOSTON
Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 899-776 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +20.65 units for backers and an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-142 vs SEA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 292-143 (67.1%) for +42.53 units and an ROI of 9.8%!
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-180 vs COL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams as they are 59-48 (+15.28 units, ROI: 14.3%) in their last 107 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-142 at LAA)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 130-94 (+23.08 units, ROI: 10.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-142 at LAA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS +120 (+15 diff), MIAMI +185 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA -118 (+32 diff), TEXAS -130 (+25 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WSH-NYM UNDER 9.5 (-0.8), OAK-BOS UNDER 10 (-0.8), TEX-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), CHC-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-37) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (59-32)
Trend: LAD just 1-4 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+120 at PHI)
(903) COLORADO (32-60) at (904) CINCINNATI (44-48)
Trend: COL bad vs. NL Central/East (9-25, -11.83 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+150 at CIN)
(905) WASHINGTON (42-50) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (45-45)
Trend: NYM more Over vs. LH starters (17-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(907) PITTSBURGH (44-47) at (908) MILWAUKEE (53-39)
Trend: MIL better at home (27-14, +9.79 units)
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-162 vs PIT)
(909) ATLANTA (51-39) at (910) ARIZONA (45-47)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. NL Central/West (10-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(911) MINNESOTA (52-39) at (912) CHICAGO-AL (26-67) (DH Game #1)
Trend: MIN better during the day (27-15, +8.24 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-162 at CWS)
(917) OAKLAND (34-59) at (918) BOSTON (50-40)
Trend: OAK bad on the road (12-34, -12.01 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+154 at BOS)
(919) TEXAS (44-48) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (37-54)
Trend: LAA worse vs. RH starters (29-45, -11.13 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+110 vs. TEX)
(921) CHICAGO-NL (43-49) at (922) BALTIMORE (57-34)
Trend: CHC more Under vs. AL teams (7-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(923) SEATTLE (50-43) at (924) SAN DIEGO (49-46)
Trend: SD trending Over at home (31-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(925) KANSAS CITY (49-43) at (926) ST LOUIS (48-42) (DH Game #2)
Trend: KC not as good on the road (18-25, -8.50 units)
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (+110 at STL)
(927) MIAMI (32-59) at (928) HOUSTON (47-44)
Trend: MIA trending Under on the road (14-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(931) KANSAS CITY (49-43) at (932) ST LOUIS (48-42) (DH Game #1)
Trend: STL trending Under during the day (14-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(933) MINNESOTA (52-39) at (934) CHICAGO-AL (26-67) (DH Game #2)
Trend: CWS bad in divisional play (7-24, -13.43 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs MIN)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-37) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (59-32)
Trend: PHI is 6-14 (-11.13 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-135 vs LAD)
(903) COLORADO (32-60) at (904) CINCINNATI (44-48)
Trend: COL is 7-17 (-7.20 units) in the underdog line range of +125 to +150 with starter Kyle Freeland in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+150 at CIN)
Trend: COL is 4-14 (-6.90 units) on the road with starter Kyle Freeland in L2 seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+150 at CIN)
(905) WASHINGTON (42-50) at (906) NEW YORK-NL (45-45)
Trend: WSH is 10-37 (-25.66 units) vs. divisional opponents with starter Patrick Corbin since 2020
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+160 at NYM)
Trend: Luis Severino is 22-7 (+14.55 units) against teams with a losing record in last two seasons
System Match: PLAY NY METS (-192 vs WSH)
(915) NEW YORK-AL (55-38) at (916) TAMPA BAY (45-46)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 14-4 (+8.47 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-120 vs. NYY)
Trend: TB is 20-6 (+9.21 units) in NIGHT games with Zach Eflin in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-120 vs NYY)
(917) OAKLAND (34-59) at (918) BOSTON (50-40)
Trend: OAK is 3-8 (-3.55 units) vs. AL East teams with starter JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+154 at BOS)
Trend: BOS is 8-0 as a home favorite of -195 or higher with starter Nick Pivetta
System Match: PLAY BOSTON (*if they fall into this line range, -185 currently*)
(923) SEATTLE (50-43) at (924) SAN DIEGO (49-46)
Trend: SEA is 11-16 (-5.26 units) vs teams with a winning record with starter Bryce Miller in the las two seasons
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (+120 at SD)
(929) TORONTO (41-50) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (45-47)
Trend: SF is 14-2 (+9.70 units) as a night favorite of -160 or higher with starter Logan Webb in the last five seasons (including 11-0 at home)
System Match: PLAY SAN FRANCISCO (-162 vs. TOR)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
