Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, July 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 11-0 (+11.30 units) on the road vs. NL West opponents within line range of +125 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+102 at SF)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 64-38 for -16.78 units and an ROI of -16.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-198 vs. COL), BOSTON (-218 vs. OAK), HOUSTON (-192 vs. MIA)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 0-10 (-10.92 units) in home day games as a -122 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. PIT)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1585-1478 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.51 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+102 at SF), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. PIT), HOUSTON (-192 vs. MIA)
Trend: SF trending Over during the day (26-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 vs. CHC), BOSTON (-218 vs. OAK)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 at DET), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 vs. TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-120 vs. TOR), BALTIMORE (-142 vs. CHC), HOUSTON (-192 vs. MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: TOR-SF, PLAY UNDER in: PIT-MIL
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-1.5 vs. COL), BOSTON (-1.5 vs. OAK), HOUSTON (-1.5 vs. MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 669-564 for -31.35 units. This is well below usual standards after a couple of losing weeks in a row.
System Matches: NY METS, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 64-38 for -16.78 units and a ROI of -16.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-198 vs. COL), BOSTON (-218 vs. OAK), HOUSTON (-192 vs. MIA)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle has been 42-26 since opening day 2024, and it has lost -13.89 units, a season-long ROI of -20.4%.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-192 vs MIA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 200-233 record for -3.54 units (ROI -0.8%). This angle did produce +3.25 units over the nine days (17-15).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. PIT), LA DODGERS (+124 at PHI)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 178-177 record for +17.57 units (ROI 4.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. This angle has really stabilized over the past month or so.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+110 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. PIT), LA DODGERS (+124 at PHI)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 108-130 for -18.13 units. The three-game teams are 53-57 for -1.34 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. LAD)
3-games – FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at BAL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 110 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/10, and these teams are 59-51 for +2.23 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed a 14-7, +6.88-unit performance over the last three weeks.
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (+124 at PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1585-1478 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -178.51 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+102 at SF), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. PIT), HOUSTON (-192 vs. MIA)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1469-1913 (43.4%) for -199.36 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-166 at LAA), NY YANKEES (-122 at TB), MIAMI (+160 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (-120 at MIL), WASHINGTON (+114 at NYM)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3197-2795 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -414.48 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, CINCINNATI, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA ANGELS, ARIZONA, SAN FRANCISCO
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 453-390 (53.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +9.90 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs. NYY)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 94-81 outright (+3.61 units, ROI: 2.1%).
System Matches: CONSIDER PLAYING WASHINGTON (+114 at NYM)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND +110 (+30 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -198 (+15 diff), ATLANTA -125 (+30 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PIT-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.6), CLE-DET OVER 8 (+0.6), NYY-TB OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-LAA UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), OAK-BOS UNDER 10 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) COLORADO (33-60) at (952) CINCINNATI (44-49)
Trend: COL bad vs. NL Central/East (10-25, -10.19 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at CIN)
(953) WASHINGTON (42-51) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (46-45)
Trend: NYM more Over vs. LH starters (17-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(955) PITTSBURGH (44-48) at (956) MILWAUKEE (54-39)
Trend: MIL better at home (28-14, +10.79 units) and 7-5 record as a home underdog
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+100 vs PIT)
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-38) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (60-32)
Trend: LAD just 1-5 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+124 at PHI)
(961) CLEVELAND (57-34) at (962) DETROIT (44-49)
Trend: CLE good during the day (24-9, +14.96 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+110 at DET)
(965) OAKLAND (35-59) at (966) BOSTON (50-41)
Trend: OAK worse on the road (13-34, -10.37 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+180 at BOS)
(967) SEATTLE (51-43) at (968) LOS ANGELES-AL (38-54)
Trend: SEA good start in divisional play (17-5, +10.06 units)
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-166 at LAA)
(969) TORONTO (42-50) at (970) SAN FRANCISCO (45-48)
Trend: SF trending Over during the day (26-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(973) MIAMI (32-60) at (974) HOUSTON (48-44)
Trend: MIA trending Under on the road (15-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(951) COLORADO (33-60) at (952) CINCINNATI (44-49)
Trend: COL is 3-8 (-5.51 units) vs. NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber last three seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at CIN)
(953) WASHINGTON (42-51) at (954) NEW YORK-NL (46-45)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 7-11 (-2.28 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+114 at NYM)
(955) PITTSBURGH (44-48) at (956) MILWAUKEE (54-39)
Trend: Aaron Civale is 0-10 (-10.92 units) in home day games as a -122 favorite or worse (including underdog) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+100 vs PIT)
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-38) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (60-32)
Trend: PHI is 23-4 (+16.45 units) as a home favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -148 currently)
Trend: PHI is 1-5 (-4.14 units) vs. LA Dodgers with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-148 vs. LAD)
(959) ATLANTA (51-40) at (960) ARIZONA (46-47)
Trend: ATL is 16-3 (+11.41 units) in road games with starter Max Fried in the last seasons
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-125 at AZ)
(969) TORONTO (42-50) at (970) SAN FRANCISCO (45-48)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 11-0 (+11.30 units) on the road vs. NL West opponents within line range of +125 or higher in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (+102 at SF)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
