The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 21, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: MIA is 10-32 (-18.87 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+124 vs. NYM)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-18 (-20.79 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-162 vs. DET)

Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 294-147 (66.7%) for +36.77 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-142 vs STL)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 169-153 run (+43.58 units, ROI: 13.5%).
System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 at KC), PLAY SEATTLE (-115 vs. HOU)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 116-138 for -16.76 units. The three-game teams are 58-59 for +3.37 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (-115 vs. CIN), FADE ARIZONA (+105 at CHC), FADE MILWAUKEE (+136 at MIN)
3+ games – FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. SF), FADE PITTSBURGH (+120 vs. PHI)

Trend: Underdogs are 13-5 (72.2%, +9.88 units) in the last 18 of the head-to-head series
– The ROI on this trend is 54.9%.
System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+105 at CHC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different MLB betting trend systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:15 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
  • Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units, ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
  • Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units, ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
  • Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units, ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this supermajority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 units and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-218 vs CWS)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-162 vs. MIL), CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs. AZ), HOUSTON (-105 at SEA), TORONTO (-162 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-162 vs. MIL), CLEVELAND (-115 vs. SD), BOSTON (+102 at LAD)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-162 vs. MIL), CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs. AZ), OAKLAND (-135 vs. LAA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-24 have gone just 292-256 (53.3%) for -82.74 units and an ROI of -15.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

    DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 171-125 (57.8%) since the start of last season for +33.5 units and an ROI of 11.3%!
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER): CIN-WSH

    MLB Bullpen Systems

    The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

    The easiest way to play the bullpen system
    Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher, went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. At the All-Star Break of the 2024 regular season, they are 709-602 for -41.37 units. This is well below usual standards after three losing weeks in a row.
    System Matches: CINCINNATI, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, MIAMI, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO, NY YANKEES, DETROIT, KANSAS CITY, BALTIMORE, OAKLAND, HOUSTON, MINNESOTA, CLEVELAND, LA DODGERS

    Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

    Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
    A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. The 2024 record of this angle so far is slightly negative at 71-28 for -1.3 units.
    System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-218 vs CWS)

    Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
    A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 211-246 record, for -4.03 units (ROI -0.9%).
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 at WSH), MIAMI (+124 vs. NYM), DETROIT (+136 at TOR), HOUSTON (-105 at SEA)

    Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
    Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 189-190 record, for +16.92 units (ROI 4.5%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 at WSH), MIAMI (+124 vs. NYM), DETROIT (+136 at TOR), HOUSTON (-105 at SEA)

    Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
    In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 116-138 for -16.76 units. The three-game teams are 58-59 for +3.37 units.
    System Matches: 2-games – FADE WASHINGTON (-115 vs. CIN), FADE ARIZONA (+105 at CHC), FADE MILWAUKEE (+136 at MIN)
    3+ games – FADE COLORADO (+124 vs. SF), FADE PITTSBURGH (+120 vs. PHI)

    Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
    In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 128-117 for -15.13 units (-6.2% ROI) through Saturday 7/20.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-112 at TEX), OAKLAND (-135 vs. LAA), DETROIT (+136 at TOR)

    Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
    Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 115 plays on this angle in 2024 through 6/23, and these teams are 63-52 for +5.58 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season but has enjoyed an 18-8, +10.11-unit performance over the last four weeks.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-105 at WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-142 at PIT)

    MLB Extreme Stats Systems

    The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

    Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
    Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 351-323 (52.1%) for +39.29 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.8%.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-162 vs TB), CLEVELAND (-115 vs SD)

    “9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
    Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1594-1485 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -180.00 units. This represents an ROI of -5.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+136 at NYY), ST LOUIS (+120 at ATL)

    Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
    You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1485-1925 (43.5%) for -192.83 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+114 at OAK), NY METS (-148 at MIA), PHILADELPHIA (-142 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 at KC)

    Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
    Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3222-2814 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -414.16 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
    System Matches (FADE ALL): OAKLAND (-135 vs. LAA), WASHINGTON (-112 vs. CIN), KANSAS CITY (-225 vs. CWS), LA DODGERS (-122 vs. BOS), ATLANTA (-142 vs. STL)

    Home team hitting slumps don’t last long
    MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 901-786 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +8.40 units for backers and an ROI of 0.5%.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 vs. NYM), CLEVELAND (-115 vs. SD), CHICAGO CUBS (-125 vs. AZ), SEATTLE (-115 vs. HOU)

    Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
    Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 456-392 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +10.47 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
    System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+124 vs. NYM)

    Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
    Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 294-147 (66.7%) for +36.77 units and an ROI of 8.3%!
    System Matches (PLAY): ATLANTA (-142 vs STL)

    MLB Streak Systems

    The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

    Losing Streak Betting System #6:
    Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 169-153 run (+43.58 units, ROI: 13.5%).
    System Matches: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 at KC), PLAY SEATTLE (-115 vs HOU)

    Winning Streak Betting System #3:
    The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 131-96 (+22.14 units, ROI: 9.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
    System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+120 vs. PHI)

    Winning Streak Betting System #4:
    Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 174-112 in their last 286 tries (+27.63 units, ROI: 9.7%).
    System Matches: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+120 vs PHI)

    Winning Streak Betting System #5:
    Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 22-49 (-7.41 units, ROI: -10.4%) in their last 71 tries.
    System Matches: FADE DETROIT (*if they fall into this line range, +136 currently)

    Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

    The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

    Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: CINCINNATI -108 (+19 diff), LA ANGELS +114 (+20 diff), MILWAUKEE +136 (+16 diff)

    Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: TORONTO -162 (+15 diff)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: MIL-MIN OVER 8 (+0.8), SF-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.6), BAL-TEX OVER 8.5 (+0.6)

    Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
    System Matches: PHI-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.5)

    MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

    (951) CINCINNATI (47-52) at (952) WASHINGTON (46-53)
    Trend: WSH slightly better vs. LH starters (15-14, +5.90 units)
    System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-115 vs CIN)

    (955) ST LOUIS (51-47) at (956) ATLANTA (54-43)
    Trend: ATL trending Under at home (16-30 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

    (957) NEW YORK-NL (50-47) at (958) MIAMI (34-64)
    Trend: MIA trending Over at home (33-15 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

    (961) SAN FRANCISCO (47-52) at (962) COLORADO (36-63)
    Trend: SF trending Over during the day (27-15 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10.5)

    (963) TAMPA BAY (49-49) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (59-41)
    Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (48-28, +10.68 units)
    System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs TB)

    (967) CHICAGO-AL (27-73) at (968) KANSAS CITY (54-45)
    Trend: KC better at home (33-18, +13.67 units)
    System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-225 vs CWS)

    (973) HOUSTON (52-46) at (974) SEATTLE (52-48)
    Trend: Under the total is 8-1 this season in head-to-head series
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)

    (979) BOSTON (53-44) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (58-41)
    Trend: LAD slight Under against AL teams (9-16 O/U)
    System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

    MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

    The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

    (957) NEW YORK-NL (50-47) at (958) MIAMI (34-64)
    Trend: MIA is 10-32 (-18.87 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 with Trevor Rogers since 2020
    System Match: FADE MIAMI (+124 vs. NYM)

    (959) ARIZONA (51-48) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (47-53)
    Trend: AZ is 11-5 (+5.64 units) in Day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt in the last two seasons
    System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (+105 at CHC)

    (961) SAN FRANCISCO (47-52) at (962) COLORADO (36-63)
    Trend: COL is 9-9 (+3.70 units) during the day with starter Austin Gomber in the last two season
    System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+124 vs. SF)

    (963) TAMPA BAY (49-49) at (964) NEW YORK-AL (59-41)
    Trend: Marcus Stroman is 7-4 (+1.75 units) in the last 11 home day game starts
    System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-162 vs. TB)

    (965) DETROIT (49-50) at (966) TORONTO (44-54)
    Trend: Kevin Gausman is 8-18 (-20.79 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last five seasons
    System Match: FADE TORONTO (-162 vs. DET)

    (969) BALTIMORE (60-38) at (970) TEXAS (46-52)
    Trend: Andrew Heaney is 18-31 (-15.80 units) vs. teams with a >53% win percentage in the last five seasons
    System Match: FADE TEXAS (-108 vs. BAL)

    (979) BOSTON (53-44) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (58-41)
    Trend: LAD is 11-3 (+6.64 units) this season as a favorite with starter James Paxton
    System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-122 vs. BOS)

    Series #3: Arizona at Chicago Cubs, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
    Trend: Underdogs are 13-5 (72.2%, +9.88 units) in the last 18 of the head-to-head series
    – The ROI on this trend is 54.9%.
    System Matches: PLAY ARIZONA (+105 at CHC)

    Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
    Trend: Colorado is 7-21 (25%, -11.13 units) in their last 28 games vs. San Francisco
    – The ROI on this trend is -39.8%
    System Match: FADE COLORADO (+124 vs SF)

    Series #26: Baltimore at Texas, Fri 7/19-Sun 7/21
    Trend: Underdogs (and pick ’ems) are 20-8 (71.4%, +14.25 units) in the last 28 games between TEX and BAL
    – The ROI on this trend is 50.9%
    System Matches: PLAY TEXAS (-108 vs. BAL)

    Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

    The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

    NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow 7/22)

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