The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, July 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

Top MLB Resources:

Trend: Favorites are 15-1 (93.8%, +13.52 units) in the last 16 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 84.5%
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-135 at PIT)

Trend: Favorites are 17-1 (94.4%, +14.4 units) in the last 18 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 80%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-112 vs. MIL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 266-219 (54.8%) for +44.17 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-135 vs. HOU)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-162 vs. DET)

Trend: TEX trending Under at home (12-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 167-150 run (+44.63 units, ROI: 14.1%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+124 at CHC), PLAY NY YANKEES (-198 vs BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

>>VSiN MLB Betting Splits

>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-162 vs. DET)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-135 vs. HOU), ST LOUIS (+110 at WSH), TEXAS (-110 vs. TB)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-148 vs. LAA), MIAMI (+130 vs. CWS), CLEVELAND (-130 vs. SF), CINCINNATI (-162 vs. DET), KANSAS CITY (-175 at COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: HOU-MIN, AZ-SD
PLAY UNDER in: CWS-MIA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%.  July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-1.5 at OAK), LA DODGERS (+1.5 vs. MIL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units through 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: PITTSBURGH, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO, BOSTON, HOUSTON, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, CHICAGO CUBS, MIAMI, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY

Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 194-224 record, for -1.44 units (ROI -0.3%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 38-33 for +10.35 units over the last nineteen days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (+110 at WSH), BOSTON (+164 at NYY), HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), TEXAS (-110 vs. TB), MIAMI (+130 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 172-170 record, for +17.79 units (ROI 5.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs. NYM), ST LOUIS (+110 at WSH), HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), TEXAS (-110 vs. TB), MIAMI (+130 vs. CWS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 99-117 for -15.84 units. The three-game teams are 51-55 for -1.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+110 at CLE), FADE COLORADO (+145 vs. KC)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 119-104 for -5.94 units (-2.7% ROI) through Friday 7/5.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. AZ), BOSTON (+164 at NYY), HOUSTON (+114 at MIN)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 106 plays on this angle in 2024 through 7/5, and these teams are 56-50 for -0.12 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+130 vs. CWS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1577-1466 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -172.04 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs. NYM), HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), MINNESOTA (-135 vs. HOU), SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. AZ)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1463-1904 (43.5%) for -195.83 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS, NY METS, TAMPA BAY, KANSAS CITY, TORONTO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3184-2780 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -406.29 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 450-388 (53.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +8.90 units, for an ROI of 1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-198 vs. BOS)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 291-142 (67.2%) for +42.83 units and an ROI of 9.9%!
System Matches (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-112 vs MIL)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 266-219 (54.8%) for +44.17 units and an ROI of 9.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-135 vs. HOU)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 167-150 run (+44.63 units, ROI: 14.1%).
System Matches: PLAY LA ANGELS (+124 at CHC), PLAY NY YANKEES (-198 vs. BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 21-48 (-8.01 units, ROI: -11.6%) in their last 69 tries.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (+164 at NYY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +114 (+35 diff), ST LOUIS +110 (+27 diff), BOSTON +164 (+34 diff), LA ANGELS +124 (+16 diff), MIAMI +130 (+20 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE -155 (+35 diff), SEATTLE -112 (+25 diff), KANSAS CITY -166 (+30 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-SD OVER 7 (+1.2), KC-COL OVER 10 (+1.1), HOU-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.0), LAA-CHC OVER 8.5 (+1.0), TB-TEX OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-PIT UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), TOR-SEA UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), BOS-NYY UNDER 9 (-0.7)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(901) NEW YORK-NL (42-44) at (902) PITTSBURGH (42-45)
Trend: PIT trending Over vs. LH starters (17-9 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(903) ST LOUIS (46-41) at (904) WASHINGTON (41-47)
Trend: STL trending Under during the day (12-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(905) PHILADELPHIA (58-30) at (906) ATLANTA (47-39)
Trend: ATL trending Under at night (15-36 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(907) MILWAUKEE (52-37) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (54-35)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (8-13, -6.44 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-108 at LAD)

(909) ARIZONA (43-45) at (910) SAN DIEGO (49-43)
Trend: H2H on a 6-2 Over run this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

(913) HOUSTON (46-42) at (914) MINNESOTA (49-39)
Trend: MIN better during the day (25-15, +6.24 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-135 vs. HOU)

(915) TAMPA BAY (44-44) at (916) TEXAS (40-48)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (12-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(917) BALTIMORE (56-32) at (918) OAKLAND (33-57)
Trend: OAK not as good vs. AL East/Central (12-28, -8.82 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+130 vs. BAL)

(919) TORONTO (39-49) at (920) SEATTLE (49-41)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (14-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(923) CHICAGO-AL (26-64) at (924) MIAMI (30-58)
Trend: MIA goes Over at home (31-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

(925) SAN FRANCISCO (44-45) at (926) CLEVELAND (54-32)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (10-17, -9.78 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+110 at CLE)

(927) DETROIT (40-48) at (928) CINCINNATI (42-46)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (15-22, -8.40 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-162 vs. DET)

(929) KANSAS CITY (48-42) at (930) COLORADO (31-57)
Trend: KC more UNDER on the ROAD (14-24 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(905) PHILADELPHIA (58-30) at (906) ATLANTA (47-39)
Trend: PHI is 15-4 (+11.40 units) in line range -115 to +115 with starter Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-108 at ATL)

Trend: PHI is 9-2 (+9.75 units) in road night game starts against teams with a winning record by Ranger Suarez in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-108 at ATL)

(907) MILWAUKEE (52-37) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (54-35)
Trend: LAD is 10-3 (+5.64 units) this season as a favorite with James Paxton
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-112 vs. MIL)

(915) TAMPA BAY (44-44) at (916) TEXAS (40-48)
Trend: TB is 6-12 (-6.02 units) as a -120 favorite or worse with Taj Bradley in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-110 at TEX)

Series #12: NY Mets at Pittsburgh, Fri 7/5-Mon 7/8
Trend: Favorites are 15-1 (93.8%, +13.52 units) in the last 16 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 84.5%
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-135 at PIT)

Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Fri 7/5-Sun 7/7
Trend: Favorites are 17-1 (94.4%, +14.4 units) in the last 18 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 80%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-112 vs. MIL)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday, 7/8)

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