Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 9-1 (+8.20 units) in the last 10 games vs. Tampa Bay
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs TB)
Trend: Favorites are 16-1 (94.1%, +14.52 units) in the last 17 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 85.4%
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-130 at PIT)
Trend: Favorites are 18-1 (94.7%, +15.4 units) in the last 19 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 81.1%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-162 vs. MIL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 292-142 (67.3%) for +43.83 units and an ROI of 10.1%!
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-135 vs BOS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-142 vs. SF), DETROIT (-142 at CIN), MIAMI (-148 vs. CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. LAA), KANSAS CITY (-162 at COL)
Trend: BAL is 15-3 (+10.92 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-175 at OAK)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-118 at WSH), ATLANTA (-166 vs. PHI), DETROIT (-142 at CIN), MIAMI (-148 vs. CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-142 vs. SF), DETROIT (-142 at CIN), MIAMI (-148 vs. CWS), CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. LAA), KANSAS CITY (-162 at COL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: CWS-MIA, TB-TEX, TOR-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-166 vs. PHI), TEXAS (-135 vs. TB)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (-1.5 at OAK)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season long return on investment. Nearing the midway point of the 2024 regular season, they are 585-477 for -2.95 units thru 6/23. This is still below usual standards despite the solid week.
System Matches: ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS, BOSTON, HOUSTON, TEXAS, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, MIAMI, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the first half of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 196-229 record, for -4.22 units (ROI -1%). This angle recovered from two rough weeks by going 40-38 for +7.57 units over the last twenty days.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+110 vs. NYM), BOSTON (+114 at NYY), HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+120 vs. DET)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 174-174 record, for +16.01 units (ROI 4.6%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+110 vs. NYM), BOSTON (+114 at NYY), HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+120 vs. DET)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 100-118 for -15.54 units. The three-game teams are 51-55 for -1.99 units.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE DETROIT (-142 at CIN)
3-games – FADE COLORADO (+136 vs. KC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 107 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 7/6 and these teams are 57-50 for +1.18 units. This angle has been stuck in neutral for most of this season.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-162 at COL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 348-321 (52%) for +39.01 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 5.8%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs LAA)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1578-1469 (51.8%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -174.34 units. This represents an ROI of -5.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-135 vs. BOS), MINNESOTA (-135 vs. HOU), WASHINGTON (+100 vs. STL), OAKLAND (+145 vs. BAL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1466-1906 (43.5%) for -195.18 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+142 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (-162 at COL)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3188-2783 (53.4%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -406.14 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA, WASHINGTON, OAKLAND, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS, SAN DIEGO
Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with an 897-773 (53.7%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +21.65 units for backers and an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs LAA)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 451-388 (53.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +9.90 units, for an ROI of 1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-142 vs. LAA)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 292-142 (67.3%) for +43.83 units and an ROI of 10.1%!
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-135 vs BOS)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 267-219
(54.9%) for +45.17 units and an ROI of 9.3% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): OAKLAND (+145 vs BAL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +110 (+31 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST LOUIS -112 (+27 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-COL OVER 10 (+1.1), STL-WSH OVER 9 (+0.6), TB-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-SEA UNDER 7.5 (-1.0), NYM-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.7), MIL-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), LAA-CHC UNDER 9 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) ST LOUIS (46-42) at (952) WASHINGTON (42-47)
Trend: STL trending Under during the day (13-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(955) NEW YORK-NL (43-44) at (956) PITTSBURGH (42-46)
Trend: PIT trending over vs. LH starters (17-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(957) ARIZONA (44-45) at (958) SAN DIEGO (49-44)
Trend: H2H series on a 7-2 Over run this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(959) MILWAUKEE (52-38) at (960) LOS ANGELES-NL (55-35)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (8-14, -7.52 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (+136 at LAD)
(961) BOSTON (48-40) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (55-36)
Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (45-23, +13.98 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-135 vs BOS)
(963) HOUSTON (46-43) at (964) MINNESOTA (50-39)
Trend: MIN better during the day (26-15, +7.24 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-135 vs HOU)
(965) TAMPA BAY (44-45) at (966) TEXAS (41-48)
Trend: TEX trending Under at home (12-29 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(967) BALTIMORE (56-33) at (968) OAKLAND (34-57)
Trend: OAK not as good vs. AL East/Central (13-28, -7.52 units)
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+145 vs BAL)
(969) TORONTO (40-49) at (970) SEATTLE (49-42)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (15-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(973) DETROIT (41-48) at (974) CINCINNATI (42-47)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (15-23, -10.02 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+120 vs DET)
(975) CHICAGO-AL (26-65) at (976) MIAMI (31-58)
Trend: MIA trending Over at home (31-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(979) KANSAS CITY (48-43) at (980) COLORADO (32-57)
Trend: KC more Under on the road (14-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 10)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(965) TAMPA BAY (44-45) at (966) TEXAS (41-48)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 20-5 (+15.08 units) in last 25 day game starts
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs. TB)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 9-1 (+8.20 units) in the last 10 games vs. Tampa Bay
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-135 vs TB)
(967) BALTIMORE (56-33) at (968) OAKLAND (34-57)
Trend: BAL is 15-3 (+10.92 units) with starter Grayson Rodriguez against below .500 teams
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-175 at OAK)
(969) TORONTO (40-49) at (970) SEATTLE (49-42)
Trend: SEA is 10-2 (+7.48 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (*if they fall into this line range, -148 currently*)
(973) DETROIT (41-48) at (974) CINCINNATI (42-47)
Trend: DET is 4-6 (-2.40 units) vs. NL Central teams with starter Tarik Skubal
System Match: CONSIDER FADING DETROIT (-142 at CIN)
(979) KANSAS CITY (48-43) at (980) COLORADO (32-57)
Trend: KC is 7-2 (+7.75 units) vs. NL West teams with starter Brady Singer
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-162 at COL)
Trend: KC is 5-8 (-7.30 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range with starter Brady Singer
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-162 at COL)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #12: NY Mets at Pittsburgh, Fri 7/5-Mon 7/8
Trend: Favorites are 16-1 (94.1%, +14.52 units) in the last 17 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 85.4%
System Matches: PLAY NY METS (-130 at PIT)
Series #13: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers, Fri 7/5-Sun 7/7
Trend: Favorites are 18-1 (94.7%, +15.4 units) in the last 19 games between Milwaukee and LA Dodgers
– The ROI on this trend is 81.1%
System Matches: PLAY LA DODGERS (-162 vs. MIL)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGELS TODAY (next one tomorrow 7/8)
