Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, June 11, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 28-19 since opening day 2024 and has lost -10.3 units, a season long ROI of -21.9%.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 129-134 record, for +7.33 units (ROI 2.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+114 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (+114 vs. ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-108 at SF)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 71-83 (-45.56 units, ROI: -29.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (+114 vs ATL)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (3-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 4-21 (-18.05 units) in road night games as -155 favorite or worse (including underdog) in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+124 at LAD)
WASHINGTON letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 8-20 (28.6%) -13.1 units, ROI: -46.8%
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (-108 at DET)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-112 vs WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (-112 vs HOU)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, COLORADO, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: ATL-BAL, CHC-TB, MIA-NYM, PIT-STL
PLAY UNDER in: CWS-SEA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA RL (at BOS), SEATTLE RL (vs CWS), LA DODGERS RL (vs TEX)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 488-409 for -18.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: MIAMI, ST LOUIS, NY YANKEES, SEATTLE, BALTIMORE, DETROIT, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE, SAN DIEGO, ARIZONA, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 41-27 for -17.13 units and an ROI of -25.2%. Last week’s 1-3 (-5.38 unit) performance built upon the season results.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still improving at 57-23 for +0.13 units.
System Matches: PLAY SEATTLE (-225 vs CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is 28-19 since opening day 2024 and has lost -10.3 units, a season-long ROI of -21.9%.
System Matches: FADE MINNESOTA (-205 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 145-175 record for -7.84 units (ROI -2.3%). This angle had one of its worst weeks ever last week though, 6-19 for -12.5 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+114 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (+114 vs ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-108 at SF)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 129-134 record, for +7.33 units (ROI 2.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+124 at NYM), ST LOUIS (+114 vs. PIT), BALTIMORE (+114 vs. ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+100 vs. TOR), HOUSTON (-108 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 83-96 for -9.72 units. The three-game teams are 40-45 for -3.65 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 3-games – FADE WASHINGTON (-108 at DET)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 92-75 for +3.04 units (1.8% ROI) through Monday 6/10.
System Matches: PLAY BALTIMORE (+114 vs ATL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1544-1429 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -162.34 units. This represents an ROI of -5.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (-175 vs. LAA), DETROIT (-112 vs. WSH), LA ANGELS (+145 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1419-1850 (43.4%) for -191.97 units and an ROI of -5.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+164 at MIN), TORONTO (-120 at MIL), OAKLAND (+136 at SD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3093-2713 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -411.14 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, MINNESOTA, NY METS, DETROIT, BOSTON, ST LOUIS, ARIZONA
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 71-83 (-45.56 units, ROI: -29.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE BALTIMORE (+114 vs ATL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +124 (+23 diff), BALTIMORE -105 (+19 diff), COLORADO +170 (+22 diff), MILWAUKEE +100 (+43 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: DETROIT -112 (+24 diff), LA DODGERS -148 (+35 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-BAL OVER 7.5 (+1.1), PHI-BOS OVER 8 (+0.5), COL-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TOR-MIL UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), HOU-SF UNDER 8 (-0.6), TEX-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.6)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(951) MIAMI (22-43) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (28-36)
Trend: MIA not good start in division (4-12, -7.86 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+124 at NYM)
Trend: NYM trending Over vs. LH starters (12-5 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(953) PITTSBURGH (31-34) at (954) ST LOUIS (31-33)
Trend: STL solid as HOME UNDERDOG (7-3 record)
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+114 vs PIT)
(955) NEW YORK-AL (47-21) at (956) KANSAS CITY (39-28)
Trend: NYY good versus AL Central/West (27-7, +14.73 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-142 at KC)
(957) CHICAGO-AL (17-50) at (958) SEATTLE (38-30)
Trend: CWS bad vs. RH starters (12-41, -23.13 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+185 at SEA)
Trend: SEA trending Under at home (11-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7)
(959) ATLANTA (35-28) at (960) BALTIMORE (43-22)
Trend: ATL trending Under vs. AL teams (3-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: BAL good record vs. LH starters (13-5, +6.72 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (+114 vs ATL)
(961) WASHINGTON (30-35) at (962) DETROIT (32-33)
Trend: WSH more Under vs. AL teams (9-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(963) CHICAGO-NL (32-34) at (964) TAMPA BAY (31-35)
Trend: TB not great vs. RH starters (20-29, -16.44 units)
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-142 vs CHC)
(967) PHILADELPHIA (45-20) at (968) BOSTON (33-33)
Trend: PHI good start in interleague play (9-2, +5.82 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-180 at BOS)
(969) COLORADO (23-43) at (970) MINNESOTA (35-31)
Trend: COL not good on the ROAD (10-26, -7.28 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at MIN)
(971) TORONTO (32-34) at (972) MILWAUKEE (39-27)
Trend: MIL trending Over vs. AL teams (19-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(973) OAKLAND (26-42) at (974) SAN DIEGO (35-35)
Trend: OAK not as bad vs. NL teams (11-8, +4.00 units)
System Match: PLAY OAKLAND (+136 at SD)
(975) LOS ANGELES-AL (25-40) at (976) ARIZONA (31-35)
Trend: LAA not horrible vs. LH starters (8-5, +5.99 units)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING LA ANGELS (+145 at AZ)
(977) HOUSTON (30-37) at (978) SAN FRANCISCO (33-34)
Trend: SF not good at NIGHT (15-23, -11.42 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-112 vs HOU)
(979) TEXAS (31-34) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (41-26)
Trend: TEX trending Under vs. LH starters (5-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(959) ATLANTA (35-28) at (960) BALTIMORE (43-22)
Trend: ATL was 9-0 (+9.00 units) in road game starts by Max Fried last season (6-2, +2.83 units this season)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-135 at BAL)
(961) WASHINGTON (30-35) at (962) DETROIT (32-33)
Trend: Kenta Maeda is 13-3 (+11.07 units) in his last 16 night games
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (-112 vs WSH)
(963) CHICAGO-NL (32-34) at (964) TAMPA BAY (31-35)
Trend: TB was 13-3 (+7.65 units) in night games with Zach Eflin last season (4-3, -1.44 units this season)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (-142 vs CHC)
(967) PHILADELPHIA (45-20) at (968) BOSTON (33-33)
Trend: BOS is 1-8 (-9.23 units) at home against NL teams by starter Kutter Crawford
System Match: FADE BOSTON (+150 vs PHI)
(969) COLORADO (23-43) at (970) MINNESOTA (35-31)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 21-8 (+11.60 units) vs. AL Central teams in last four seasons
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING COLORADO (+170 at MIN)
(979) TEXAS (31-34) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (41-26)
Trend: Dane Dunning is 4-21 (-18.05 units) in road night games as -155 favorite or worse (including underdog) in career
System Match: FADE TEXAS (+124 at LAD)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NY METS
Letdown after series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 11-17 (39.3%) -9.80 units, ROI: -35%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 6/11 vs Miami
System Matches: FADE NY METS (-148 vs MIA)
PHILADELPHIA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 14-16 (46.7%) -6.03 units, ROI: -20.1%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 6/11 at Boston
System Matches: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-180 at BOS)
WASHINGTON
Letdown after series vs. ATLANTA: 8-20 (28.6%) -13.1 units, ROI: -46.8%
Next betting opportunity: Tuesday 6/11 at Detroit
System Matches: FADE WASHINGTON (-108 at DET)
