Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, June 6, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs MIN)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 39-25 for -14.67 units and a ROI of -22.9%.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (-238 vs COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 283-139 (67.1%) for +39.94 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-125 vs CHC)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 153-139 run (+38.30 units, ROI: 13.1%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-122 vs AZ)
Trend: CLE good at HOME (21-7, +10.42 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 vs KC)
ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 5-14 (26.3%) -8.88 units, ROI: -46.7%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 6/6 at San Diego
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (+102 at SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities on handle and bets unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-148 vs MIN)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors were on huge home favorites last season, they were equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group went 59-40 (59.6%) last season for -38.89 units and an ROI of -39.3%. Anyone losing at this rate will drain their bankroll quickly.
System Matches: FADE BOSTON (-238 at CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: KC-CLE
PLAY UNDER in: COL-STL
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There was a unique system that developed last year when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This was a terrible scenario for bettors, as they were just 128-137 (48.3%) for -73.71 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.8%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well as well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches: FADE CINCINNATI (-125 vs CHC)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets were on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this “super” majority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in 2024, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL (vs MIN), ST LOUIS RL (vs COL), BOSTON RL (at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 445-368 for -11.15 units. This is well below usual standards.
System Matches: LA DODGERS, WASHINGTON, CINCINNATI, SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, SEATTLE, BOSTON
Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 39-25 for -14.67 units and an ROI of -22.9%.
System Matches: FADE ST LOUIS (-238 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is improving at 55-22 for +0.33 units.
System Matches: PLAY BOSTON (-238 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 139-168 record for -7.47 units (ROI -2.4%). This angle took a hit on Wednesday 6/5, going 0-5 for -5.13 units.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): WASHINGTON (+145 vs ATL), BALTIMORE (-105 at TOR)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-129 record, for +7.20 units (ROI 2.8%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-105 at TOR)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 79-83 for +0.18 units. The three-game teams are 40-40 for +2.80 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PITTSBURGH (+154 vs LAD), FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at CIN)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 86-72 for +0.78 units (0.5% ROI) through Wednesday 6/5.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): CINCINNATI (-125 vs CHC)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 83 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/5, and these teams are 42-41 for -4.19 units. This angle seems to be picking up steam lately, and I expect it to go positive soon.
System Matches (PLAY BOTH): WASHINGTON (+145 vs ATL), SAN DIEGO (-122 vs AZ)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1534-1422 (51.9%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -164.41 units. This represents an ROI of -5.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-230 at CWS), CINCINNATI (-125 vs. CHC), PITTSBURGH (+154 vs. LAD), NY YANKEES (-148 vs. MIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1409-1844 (43.3%) for -194.22 units and an ROI of -6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-175 at WSH), SEATTLE (-142 at OAK), BALTIMORE (-118 at TOR)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3084-2700 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -409.96 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-155 vs. KC), CINCINNATI (-125 vs. CHC), PITTSBURGH (+154 vs. LAD), NY YANKEES (-148 vs. MIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+190 vs. BOS)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 443-378 (54%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +12.60 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+145 vs. ATL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 283-139 (67.1%) for +39.94 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Matches (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-125 vs CHC)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 48-101 skid (-28.69 units, ROI: -19.3%).
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 59-126 (-51.78 units, ROI: -28%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs BOS)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 153-139 run (+38.30 units, ROI: 13.1%).
System Matches: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-122 vs AZ)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 121-124 (+13.26 units, ROI: 5.4%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY COLORADO (+195 at STL), PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on an 181-96 (+11.04 units, ROI: 4.0%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs MIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 168-108 in their last 276 tries (+26.85 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs MIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +195 (+35 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEATTLE -142 (+15 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-CLE OVER 7.5 (+1.2), AZ-SD OVER 8 (+0.8), BAL-TOR OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHC-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-1.0)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (38-25) at (902) PITTSBURGH (29-32)
Trend: LAD slight Under on the road (11-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(903) ATLANTA (34-25) at (904) WASHINGTON (27-34)
Trend: WSH not as good at home (10-16, -2.38 units)
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (+145 vs ATL)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (31-31) at (906) CINCINNATI (29-33)
Trend: CHC not good start in divisional play (7-12, -6.40 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at CIN)
(907) COLORADO (21-40) at (908) ST LOUIS (29-31)
Trend: COL not good vs. NL East/Central (3-15, -10.11 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+195 at STL)
Trend: STL trending Under vs. NL East/West (8-16 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(909) ARIZONA (29-33) at (910) SAN DIEGO (32-33)
Trend: AZ slight Under vs. RH starters (13-23 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(911) BALTIMORE (39-21) at (912) TORONTO (29-32)
Trend: BAL good as road underdog (6-2 record)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 at TOR)
Trend: BAL good vs. LH starters (13-4, +7.72 units)
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-105 at TOR)
(913) KANSAS CITY (36-26) at (914) CLEVELAND (40-20)
Trend: CLE good at home (21-7, +10.42 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-155 vs KC)
(915) SEATTLE (35-28) at (916) OAKLAND (25-38)
Trend: SEA not as good during the day (9-12, -6.34 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)
(917) MINNESOTA (33-28) at (918) NEW YORK-AL (44-19)
Trend: NYY good vs. RH starters (35-13, +18.87 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-155 vs MIN)
(919) BOSTON (31-31) at (920) CHICAGO-AL (15-47)
Trend: CWS awful vs. RH starters (10-38, -23.03 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+195 vs BOS)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (38-25) at (902) PITTSBURGH (29-32)
Trend: Bailey Falter is 8-2 (+6.05 units) as a home night starter in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY PITTSBURGH (+154 vs LAD)
(905) CHICAGO-NL (31-31) at (906) CINCINNATI (29-33)
Trend: CIN is 5-16 (-11.92 units) vs divisional foes with starter Hunter Greene
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-125 vs CHC)
(907) COLORADO (21-40) at (908) ST LOUIS (29-31)
Trend: Cal Quantrill is 4-13 (-5.81 units) as an underdog of +150 or more in the last four seasons
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+195 at STL)
(915) SEATTLE (35-28) at (916) OAKLAND (25-38)
Trend: OAK is 7-16 (-5.40 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+120 vs SEA)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
ARIZONA
Letdown after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 5-14 (26.3%) -8.88 units, ROI: -46.7%
Next betting opportunity: Thursday 6/6 at San Diego
System Matches: FADE ARIZONA (+102 at SD)
