Today’s MLB Betting Trends
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 19, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 5/17-Sun 5/19
Trend: Colorado is 5-20 (20%, -12.63 units) in their last 25 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -50.5%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at SF)
Trend: CIN is 2-14 (-11.20 units) as a large underdog +135 or worse by starter Hunter Greene
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+150 at LAD)
Trend: MIL is good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (4-0, +4.54 units this season) with starter Colin Rea
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+110 at HOU)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 280-135 (67.5%) for +45.24 units and an ROI of 10.9%!
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 57-119 (-46.78 units, ROI: -26.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+145 at KC)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET, based on Steve Makinen’s betting splits systems. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
>>Read more about Steve Makinen’s MLB betting systems based on the VSiN betting splits.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -10% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager last season, this supermajority group did quite well, going 125-45 (73.5%) last season for +36.19 units and an ROI of +21.2%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 32%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches: NONE YET TODAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups proved to be at least reasonably successful when not too many of them got on a side last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups finished the season with a record of 221-193 (53.4%) for +0.88 units and an ROI slightly above 0%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is not a loss, and it is definitively better than the overall ROI of -8.9%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-108 at TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors were pretty sound last year when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group went 117-33 (78%) last season for +20.38 units and an ROI of 13.6%. This is a pretty strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but I would caution as to getting too deep into this one if it turns the other way.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors were worse overall in interleague games in 2023, going 374-314 (54.4%) for -81.67 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is over a full percentage point worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-120 at STL), MILWAUKEE (+110 at HOU), DETROIT (+136 at AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors were profitable last year when betting the lowest totaled MLB games, going 181-154 (54%) last season for +11.6 units and an ROI of +3.5% on games with posted totals of 7.5 or less. Recognizing that the majority bettors’ preferred option is Over bets, most of these wins came as games surpassed their posted numbers.
System Matches: PLAY OVER in: WSH-PHI, SEA-BAL, MIN-CLE
PLAY UNDER in: PIT-CHC, COL-SF
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There was a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month last season. March/April ROI was -1.3%, May was a brutal -20.6%, June climbed back up to -6.9%. July slipped to -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will be tracked in 2024:
– Majority handle bettors in May were just 207-201 (50.7%) for -85.15 units and an ROI of -20.6%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: When 85% or more of the bets was on either side of an MLB run line wager last season, this supermajority group did far better than the overall numbers, going 282-235 (54.5%) last season for +0.45 units and an ROI of 0%. Again, this is clearly just a very minimal return, but considering the major losses in all of the MLB betting categories, it beats the overall majority bets ROI return by almost 8% and, if it continues in ’24, will at least keep bettors in the game.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES RL, CLEVELAND RL, SAN FRANCISCO RL, LA DODGERS RL
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024 through 5/5, they are 263-213 for +0.3 units. For the last three weeks in a row, results have picked up nicely. Considering the average MLB bettor playing every game has lost -32 units, this system is providing a huge advantage even as it is performing a bit below its 2023 standards.
System Matches: WASHINGTON, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS, ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, OAKLAND, TEXAS, MILWAUKEE, BOSTON, DETROIT
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are 29-16 for -5.32 units and an ROI of -11.8%. However, the ROI dropped 47% over the past 37 days.
System Matches: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-198 vs COL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still negative but improving at 41-19 for -5.36 units.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog. Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams produced a 101-120 record for -4.15 units. This angle also seems to be picking up steam as we get deeper into the season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+195 at PHI), TAMPA BAY (-108 at TOR), OAKLAND (+142 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+110 at HOU), DETROIT (+136 at AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, it was found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 35-45 for -0.76 units after a poor three-week stretch of 21-27 for -7.77 units. The three-game teams are 29-30 for +2.89 units. The three-game angle was 15-17 for -0.61 units since 4/22.
System Matches: 2-games – FADE PHILADELPHIA (-238 vs. WSH), FADE KANSAS CITY (-170 vs. OAK), FADE ST LOUIS (+110 vs. BOS)
3+ games – FADE MIAMI (+120 vs NYM)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 59-44 for -0.67 units thru Saturday 5/18 after a 35-32, +6.43 units stretch over the last five weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-198 vs COL), NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS), TAMPA BAY (-108 at TOR)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 54 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 5/18, and these teams are 31-23 for +2.87 units.
System Matches (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+195 at PHI), OAKLAND (+142 at KC), BOSTON (-130 at STL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1505-1407 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -173.87 units. This represents an ROI of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-198 vs. COL), CLEVELAND (-122 vs. MIN), NY METS (-142 at MIA), MIAMI (+120 vs. NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1379-1798 (43.4%) for -181.61 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+105 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+260 at NYY), BOSTON (-130 at STL), LA ANGELS (+130 at TEX), CINCINNATI (+142 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3034-2657 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -402.77 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-325 vs. CWS), SAN FRANCISCO (-198 vs. COL), MIAMI (+120 vs. NYM), CLEVELAND (-122 vs. MIN), KANSAS CITY (-175 vs. OAK), ST LOUIS (+110 vs. BOS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 4+ seasons, going 280-135 (67.5%) for +45.24 units and an ROI of 10.9%!
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 25-69 skid (-27.50 units, ROI -29.3%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+145 at KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 47-94 skid (-22.69 units, ROI: -16.1%).
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+145 at KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%), while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 57-119 (-46.78 units, ROI: -26.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: FADE OAKLAND (+145 at KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are playing on the road in a competitive line scenario (+130 to -300) have been successful in snapping their skids, 78-64 outright (+5.95 units, ROI: 4.2%).
System Matches: PLAY MINNESOTA (+102 CLE), PLAY BOSTON (-130 at STL)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 146-127 run (+43.01 units, ROI: 15.8%).
System Matches: PLAY WASHINGTON (+195 at PHI), PLAY MINNESOTA (+102 at CLE), PLAY OAKLAND (+145 at KC)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a four-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 113-110 (+19.90 units, ROI: 8.9%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches: PLAY OAKLAND (+145 at KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more are on a 176-94 (+9.26 units, ROI: 3.4%) run in the next game when playing as home favorites.
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 160-104 in their last 264 tries (+24.32 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches: PLAY NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +195 (+50 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +250 (+50 diff), OAKLAND +142 (+16 diff), DETROIT +136 (+15 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATLANTA (-122 vs SD), TEXAS -155 (+19 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIN-CLE OVER 7.5 (+1.0)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: OAK-KC UNDER 9 (-1.0), NYM-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), CWS-NYY UNDER 8.5 (-0.6)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
(903) NEW YORK-NL (20-25) at (904) MIAMI (15-32)
Trend: Sean Manaea is 1-5 (-5.49 units) against NL East opponents in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (-142 at MIA)
(907) COLORADO (15-30) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (22-25)
Trend: Dakota Hudson is 10-5 (+6.39 units) against NL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY COLORADO (+164 at SF)
(909) CINCINNATI (19-27) at (910) LOS ANGELES-NL (31-17)
Trend: CIN is 2-14 (-11.20 units) as a large underdog +135 or worse by starter Hunter Greene
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+150 at LAD)
(911) SAN DIEGO (23-24) at (912) ATLANTA (26-15)
Trend: SD is 10-17 (-9.82 units) in the -102 to -130 line range in night games with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN DIEGO (*if they fall into this line range, +100 currently)
(915) CHICAGO-AL (14-32) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (32-15)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is just 9-14 (-8.32 units) in the last 23 starts with NYY
System Match: FADE NY YANKEES (-310 vs CWS)
(917) TAMPA BAY (25-22) at (918) TORONTO (19-25)
Trend: TOR is 7-14 (-12.49 units) in the last 21 Divisional starts with Alek Manoah
System Match: FADE TORONTO (-112 vs TB)
(919) MINNESOTA (24-21) at (920) CLEVELAND (29-17)
Trend: CLE was 9-2 (+7.15 units) in the -135 to +110 line range by starter Tanner Bibee last year (3-0, +3.00 units this year)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-122 vs MIN)
(921) OAKLAND (19-29) at (922) KANSAS CITY (28-19)
Trend: OAK is 6-15 (-5.70 units) in day game starts by JP Sears in the last two years
System Match: FADE OAKLAND (+142 at KC)
Trend: KC is 5-8 (-7.30 units) as a favorite in -135 to -175 line range with starter Brady Singer
System Match: FADE KANSAS CITY (-170 vs OAK)
Trend: KC is 14-4 (+11.42 units) in home day games with starter Brady Singer in the last 2+ seasons
System Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-170 vs OAK)
(925) MILWAUKEE (27-18) at (926) HOUSTON (20-26)
Trend: MIL is good in the -120 to +135 line range (12-2 record, +11.10 units last season) (4-0, +4.54 units this season) with starter Colin Rea
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (+110 at HOU)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #17: Colorado at San Francisco, Fri 5/17-Sun 5/19
Trend: Colorado is 5-20 (20%, -12.63 units) in their last 25 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -50.5%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+164 at SF)
Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Thu 5/16-Sun 5/19
Trend: Pittsburgh is 6-18 (25%, -9.89 units) in their last 24 games at Chicago Cubs
– The ROI on this trend is -41.2%
System Matches: FADE PITTSBURGH (+105 at CHC)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY
