Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 1, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Top MLB Resources:
Trend: Alex Cobb is 10-1 (+8.85 units) in his L11 HOME starts
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs PIT)
Trend: CIN not as good during the DAY (19-32, -16.36 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+102 vs MIL)
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 359-339 (51.4%) for +29.34 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-185 vs TOR)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 81-92 (-46.69 units, ROI: -27%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-105 at AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 UNITS and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-258 vs MIA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first half results:
– Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
– Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
– Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
– Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the HANDLE was on the HOME side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and a ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-218 vs STL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority BETS groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not TOO MANY of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of BETS landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 UNITS and a ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that professional bettor looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-105 at AZ)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority HANDLE bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge HOME FAVORITES of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 UNITS and a ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-258 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority HANDLE bettors have been at their worst overall in INTERLEAGUE GAMES since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 UNITS and a ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, SAN DIEGO, CLEVELAND, NY METS, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority HANDLE betting groups backed HOME FAVORITES with LESS WINS on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): ARIZONA (-115 vs LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up & down pattern of performance for majority HANDLE bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%. Diving deeper into specifics, these different systems will continue to be tracked for 2024:
1. Majority HANDLE bettors in SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units & a ROI of -16.7% since the start of the ’23 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
– In games of the ‘23 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an R.O.I. of -30.5%! So far in ’24, these teams are again losing money, 103-57 for -23.12 units and a ROI of -14.5%.
System Matches (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-258 vs MIA), NY YANKEES (-218 vs STL)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
– A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The R.O.I. on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI. As of 8/30, the record of this angle is at 93-36 for +0.29 units (huge loss of -360 by NYY on 8/24).
System Matches (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-192 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
– A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The R.O.I. of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the ’24 season, these teams have produced a 305-365 record, for -14.87 units (ROI -2.2%). This is below standards historically for me but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it especially after back-to-back winning weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-105 at AZ), ATLANTA (+120 at PHI), DETROIT (+100 vs BOS), TORONTO (+154 at MIN), OAKLAND (+110 at TEX)
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
– Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 275-288 record, for +12.41 units (ROI 2.2%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-105 at AZ), ATLANTA (+120 at PHI), DETROIT (+100 vs BOS), OAKLAND (+110 at TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.
HOME TEAMS off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 359-339 (51.4%) for +29.34 units of profit. This represents a R.O.I. of 4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-185 vs TOR)
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1657-1550 (51.7%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -191.80 units. This represents a R.O.I. of -6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+102 vs SD), TORONTO (+154 at MIN)
ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored 2 runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1567-1999 (43.9%) for -173.05 units and a R.O.I. of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-120 at DET), OAKLAND (+114 at TEX), KANSAS CITY (+140 at HOU), ATLANTA (+120 at PHI)
HOME TEAMS that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3340-2928 (53.3%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -439.60 units and a R.O.I. of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, HOUSTON, COLORADO, ARIZONA, LA ANGELS
HOME TEAM hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had 4 hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 934-816 (53.4%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +4.75 units for backers and a R.O.I. of 0.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-148 vs PIT), MINNESOTA (-185 vs TOR)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 276-234 (54.1%) for +36.06 units and a R.O.I. of 7.1% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-185 vs TOR), ARIZONA (-115 vs LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 52-120 skid (-42.49 units, ROI: -24.7%).
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs NYM)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7-games or more tend do fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 15-15 (+10.07 units, ROI: 33.6%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 66-148 (-65.39 units, ROI: -30.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs NYM)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 175-171 run (+33.23 units, ROI: 9.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+142 vs NYM), KANSAS CITY (+140 at HOU)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
The matchup most likely to find a team ending a 4-game losing streak is a non-divisional league matchup, as these teams are 147-164 (+3.64 units, ROI: 1.2%) in such games since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+140 at HOU)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of 5-games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 180-121 in their last 301 tries (+19.76 units, ROI: 6.6%).
System Matches (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 at WSH)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 81-92 (-46.69 units, ROI: -27%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): LA DODGERS (-105 at AZ)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIAMI +210 (+18 diff), LA DODGERS -105 (+30 diff), TORONTO +154 (+30 diff), ST LOUIS +180 (+20 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MILWAUKEE -122 (+17 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -122 (+17 diff), PHILADELPHIA -142 (+25 diff), HOUSTON -166 (+18 diff), NY METS -170 (+40 diff), BALTIMORE -192 (+20 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-LAA UNDER 9 (-1.2), MIL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), STL-NYY UNDER 9.5 (-0.6), PIT-CLE UNDER 8 (-0.6), BOS-DET UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), TOR-MIN UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.
MLB Matchups: https://data.vsin.com/mlb/games/
(951) MILWAUKEE (80-56) at (952) CINCINNATI (64-73)
Trend: CIN not as good during the DAY (19-32, -16.36 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (+102 vs MIL)
(953) CHICAGO-NL (70-66) at (954) WASHINGTON (61-75)
Trend: WSH slight OVER vs NL Central/West (33-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)
(955) MIAMI (50-86) at (956) SAN FRANCISCO (68-69)
Trend: MIA trending UNDER on the ROAD (26-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-54) at (958) ARIZONA (76-60)
Trend: LAD is 3-9 as a ROAD underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-105 at AZ)
(959) ATLANTA (74-62) at (960) PHILADELPHIA (80-56)
Trend: PHI better at NIGHT (57-34, +7.75 units)
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (-142 vs ATL)
(963) TORONTO (67-71) at (964) MINNESOTA (73-62)
Trend: MIN good during the DAY (35-23, +6.02 units)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 vs TOR)
(967) OAKLAND (59-77) at (968) TEXAS (64-72)
Trend: TEX more UNDER at HOME (22-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)
(971) ST LOUIS (68-68) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (79-57)
Trend: STL slight UNDER during the DAY (22-33 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)
(973) SAN DIEGO (77-61) at (974) TAMPA BAY (67-68)
Trend: TB better vs NL teams (26-16, +7.75 units)
System Match: PLAY TAMPA BAY (+102 vs SD)
(975) NEW YORK-NL (72-64) at (976) CHICAGO-AL (31-106)
Trend: CWS trending UNDER vs LH starters (8-20 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(979) BALTIMORE (78-59) at (980) COLORADO (51-86)
Trend: BAL slight OVER on the ROAD (40-24 O/U)System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 11)
MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.
MLB Matchups: https://data.vsin.com/mlb/games/
(957) LOS ANGELES-NL (82-54) at (958) ARIZONA (76-60)
Trend: AZ is 12-6 (+5.64 units) in DAY game starts by Brandon Pfaadt in L2 seasons
System Match: PLAY ARIZONA (-115 vs LAD)
(959) ATLANTA (74-62) at (960) PHILADELPHIA (80-56)
Trend: PHI is 24-4 (+17.45 units) as a HOME favorite from -150 to -198 with starter Aaron Nola in L5 seasons
System Match: PLAY PHILADELPHIA (*if they fall into this line range, -142 currently*)
(971) ST LOUIS (68-68) at (972) NEW YORK-AL (79-57)
Trend: NYY is 15-3 (+7.94 units) at HOME as large favorite of -185 or more with starter Nestor Cortes in L4 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-205 vs STL)
Trend: NYY is 13-4 (+7.83 units) at HOME in DAY games with starter Nestor Cortes in L3 seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-205 vs STL)
(977) PITTSBURGH (63-72) at (978) CLEVELAND (77-59)
Trend: Alex Cobb is 10-1 (+8.85 units) in his L11 HOME startsSystem Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (-148 vs PIT)
Top Head-To-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #10: Boston at Detroit, Fri 8/30-Sun 9/1
Trend: Detroit is 4-13 (23.5%, -7.99 units) in L17 games vs. Boston
– The R.O.I. on this trend is -47%
System Matches: FADE DETROIT (+100 vs BOS)
Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Monday 9/2)
