The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, September 7, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (90%, +7.85 units) in the last 10 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 5.6 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 78.5%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Logan Webb is 0-5 (-5.37 units) on the road vs. San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at SD)

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 360-340 (51.4%) for +29.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+200 vs. PHI)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
–  Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 170 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/6 and these teams are 97-73 for +10.78 units (6.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-290 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with less wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 units and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-162 vs. AZ)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

To summarize the first half of 2024 season findings, the data sample contained 1449 games, and for the most part, it can be concluded that majority bettors again slowly dwindled their bankrolls over the course of the first 3-1/2 months, losing at least 2.7% in all categories. However, as you can see, they were noticeably improved over the full 2023 season in five of the six measured categories. These were the 2024 first-half results:

  • – Majority handle on sides: 792-628 (55.8%), -66.71 units – ROI -4.7% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
    – Majority number of bets on sides: 823-612 (57.4%), -61.77 units – ROI -4.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
    – Majority handle on run lines: 717-711 (50.2%). -83.92 units, ROI -5.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
    – Majority number of bets on run lines: 661-777 (46%). -45.98 units – ROI -3.2% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
    – Majority handle on totals: 689-688 (50%). -67.8 units – ROI -4.9% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%.
    – Majority number of bets on totals: 692-662 (51.1%), -36.2 units, ROI -2.7% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -5% returns on all majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB moneyline wager since the beginning of last season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 164-66 (71.3%) for +32.84 UNITS and an ROI of +14.3%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by almost 25%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game for the rest of this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-290 vs. COL), BOSTON (-192 vs. CWS) 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. MIN)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last year-and-a-half when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 154-46 (77%) for +18.91 units and an ROI of 9.5%. This is a strong rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so proceed with caution.
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-290 vs. COL)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 80-51 (61.1%) for -40.05 units and an ROI of -30.6%. This is a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 595-505 (54.1%) for -119.1 units and an ROI of -10.8%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, ATLANTA, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 180-193 (48.3%) for -102.81 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -27.6%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE): HOUSTON (-162 vs. AZ)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 244-215 (53.2%) for -76.5 units and an ROI of -16.7% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/6, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 97-37 for -3.96 units (huge losses on 9/4 by LAD and BAL).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-290 vs. COL), PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA), BOSTON (-192 vs. CWS)

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is 64-38 since opening day 2024 and has lost -19.41 units, an ROI of -19%, solid results once again.
System Matches (FADE): BOSTON (-192 vs. CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 312-382 record for -23.25 units (ROI -3.4%). This is below standards historically for me, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (+154 at BAL), DETROIT (-108 at OAK), LA ANGELS (+120 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. NYY), CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 280-301 record for +6.33 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-108 at OAK), LA ANGELS (+120 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+120 vs. NYY), CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streak
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 165-205 for -40.94 units (-11.1% ROI). The three-game teams are 81-85 for -3.75 units (-2.3% ROI).
System Matches: 2-games – FADE COLORADO (+235 at MIL), FADE KANSAS CITY (+114 vs. MIN)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 170 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/6 and these teams are 97-73 for +10.78 units (6.3% ROI).
System Matches (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-290 vs. COL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

Home team off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 360-340 (51.4%) for +29.34 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 4.2%.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+200 vs. PHI)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1663-1561 (51.6%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -200.37 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1 (-120 vs. WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1574-2015 (43.9%) for -178.96 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, TORONTO, ARIZONA, MINNESOTA, SAN FRANCISCO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3352-2944 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -450.16 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH GAME 1, NY METS, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, OAKLAND, SAN DIEGO

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 484-408 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +22.02 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-290 vs COL), TEXAS (-142 vs. LAA)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 279-237 (54.1%) for +36.06 units and an ROI of 7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY): MIAMI (+200 vs PHI)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 178-177 run (+30.11 units, ROI: 8.5%).
System Matches (PLAY): TORONTO (+140 at ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 182-121 in their last 303 tries (+21.76 units, ROI: 7.2%).
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (-155 vs. CIN) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +235 (+30 diff), TAMPA BAY +154 (+24 diff), CHICAGO CUBS +120 (+15 diff), TORONTO +140 (+20 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NONE TODAY 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-STL OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLE-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.9), COL-MIL UNDER 8 (-0.6), AZ-HOU UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), DET-OAK UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(951) CINCINNATI (68-74) at (952) NEW YORK-NL (77-64)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 2-7 (-10.51 units) as a day game large favorite (-165 or more) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE NY METS (*if they become a favorite in this line range, -155 currently)

(953) PHILADELPHIA (85-56) at (954) MIAMI (52-89)
Trend: PHI is 6-7 (-7.80 units) as heavy road favorite (-180 or higher) with starter Aaron Nola in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PHILADELPHIA (-245 at MIA)

(955) WASHINGTON (62-78) at (956) PITTSBURGH (66-74) (DH Game #2)
Trend: PIT is 10-16 (-4.78 units) vs. NL East teams with starter Mitch Keller in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE PITTSBURGH GAME 2 (-142 vs. WSH)

(959) SAN FRANCISCO (69-73) at (960) SAN DIEGO (81-62)
Trend: Logan Webb is 0-5 (-5.37 units) on the road vs San Diego in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at SD)

(961) TAMPA BAY (69-72) at (962) BALTIMORE (82-60)
Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-7 (+8.03 units) vs. AL East opponents since 2020
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-185 vs. TB)

(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (59-82) at (966) TEXAS (68-74)
Trend: Tyler Anderson is 19-7 (+15.66 units) vs AL West teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY LA ANGELS (+120 at TEX) 

(967) MINNESOTA (76-65) at (968) KANSAS CITY (77-65)
Trend: MIN is 3-6 (-3.70 units) in SEPT/OCT ROAD starts for Bailey Ober in the last three seasons
System Match: FADE MINNESOTA (-135 at KC) 

(979) CLEVELAND (81-60) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-57)
Trend: CLE is 2-10 (-8.66 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher by starter Gavin Williams in the last two seasons
System Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+130 at LAD)

Series #8: Colorado at Milwaukee, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Home teams are 15-6 (71.4%, +7.53 units) in the last 21 games between Colorado and Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 35.9%
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-290 vs. COL)

Series #23: Toronto at Atlanta, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Atlanta is 2-10 (16.7%, -10.40 units) in the last 12 games against Toronto (since mid-2020)
– The ROI on this trend is -86.7%
System Matches: FADE ATLANTA (-166 vs. TOR)

Series #27: Chicago White Sox at Boston, Fri 9/6 – Sun 9/8
Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (90%, +7.85 units) in the last 10 games of CWS-BOS in Boston (total runs in these games are at 5.6 RPG)
– The ROI on this trend is 78.5%
System Matches: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

Team-Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Tuesday 9/10)

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