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MLB value plays for Monday, June 19
Greg Peterson posts his daily handicapped MLB lines for every game every day. Based on his lines vs. the actual lines, here is where Peterson sees value on today’s menu. Peterson also does a daily podcast, The Baseball Betting Show, on which he breaks down every game every day.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Total 9.5. Greg’s Total 8.8.
The Washington Nationals are last in the National League in home runs per game and are averaging less than 0.7 home runs per game at home this season. Nationals starter Josiah Gray does have fielding independent numbers that indicate regression might be coming, but he has been solid overall with four runs or fewer allowed in 13 straight starts with a 2.80 ERA in this span. Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty has allowed one or zero runs in three of his last four starts while the Cardinals are averaging nearly 5.3 runs per game at home compared to 3.9 runs per game on the road.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Total 7.5. Greg’s Total 8.7.
Merrill Kelly has good 2023 road numbers, but he has not been the same pitcher away from Arizona for his career, posting a 3.39 ERA at home with less than a home run per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.34 ERA on the road with 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Brewers starter Corbin Burnes has been worse throughout his career at home than on the road, posting a 3.44 ERA at home while supplying a 3.03 ERA with 0.9 home runs per nine innings away from home. Both teams are outside the top 15 in bullpen ERA, and the Diamondbacks are second in the league in runs per game on the road with 5.6.
Mets vs. Astros (-130). Greg’s Line: Astros -144.
Astros starter Hunter Brown has yet to allow a home run at home across six starts this season and is backed up by a bullpen that is fourth in the league in ERA. The Mets bullpen is 21st in ERA. While Max Scherzer is a big-name pitcher, he’s allowing opponents to hit for a .386 average with a home run every nine at-bats when he faces an opponent either the third or fourth time through the lineup, registering a 5.35 ERA overall this season.
