Padres vs. Cubs
The first series set in stone for the 2025 MLB playoffs was Padres vs. Cubs. With moving parts in both leagues on the final day of the regular season, the 4 vs. 5 matchup in the Senior Circuit brings the top two Wild Card teams to Wrigley Field for a best-of-three set beginning on Tuesday, September 30.
Neither one of these teams had to sweat a playoff berth. The Padres seemed to have a shot at the NL West crown for a while, but never got higher than 42.5% to win it per FanGraphs’ playoff odds. The Cubs were actually the favorites per FG to win the NL Central until late early August when everything flipped and the Brewers coasted to the division crown and the No. 1 seed.
Maybe it matters that the Cubs were only 34-31 in the second half after a blistering 57-39 start prior to the Midsummer Classic. Maybe it matters that the Cubs were 50-31 at home and 42-39 on the road, even though they actually had a better run differential away from the Windy City. Maybe it very much matters that the Padres were 52-29 at home and 38-43 on the road with a negative run differential. Maybe none of it matters in a high-variance environment like a three-game series between two very good baseball teams.
Let’s break down the three main phases of the game – offense, pitching, defense – and see if there’s an edge to be had.
Padres vs. Cubs Wild Card Odds
San Diego Padres +105 // Chicago Cubs -125
Over 2.5 Games (-110/-110)
Odds as of 8:45 p.m. PT from DraftKings Sportsbook
Padres vs. Cubs Wild Card Series Preview
Offense
Wrigley Field’s park factor depends on which way the wind is blowing on the North Side. We know that Petco Park is an elite venue for pitchers and absolutely suppresses offensive performance. So, in theory, the Padres should be in better shape not playing in a pitcher’s haven.
As the great Lee Corso has always said, “not so fast, my friend”. Even though the Padres have a lot of big names and should be a really good offense, they really aren’t. They were 18th in wOBA at home with a .311 mark, but had a 106 wRC+ that ranked 12th because offense is graded on such a curve at Petco. On the road, the Padres had a .311 wOBA, but without the curve, they had just a 98 wRC+.
The biggest difference between home and road for San Diego was their walk rate as a team. Away from Petco, the Padres posted a 7.1% BB% with a .256/.316/.395 slash. At home, they posted a 9.6% BB% with a .248/.325/.383 slash. So, their road power numbers were better, but the “curve” was reflected in the high walk rate at home.
We know that home data for the Cubs is wonky because hot days with a helping breeze turn the ballpark into the Coors Field of the Midwest. Days with the wind blowing in or those bitter April and early May evenings turn the place into, well, Petco. Overall, the Cubs batted .243/.322/.421 at home with a .322 wOBA and a 110 wRC+. That included the second-best home BB% in the league.
Getting Kyle Tucker back during the final week of the regular season is a huge boost for the hosts here. The impending free agent owns a 137 wRC+, meaning he is 37% better than league average offensively. The MLB playoffs are really big on hitting home runs because manufacturing innings against many of the best pitching staffs in baseball is hard to do. Tucker hit 22 and ranked sixth on the team. The Cubs had three 30-homer guys, including Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki, who topped 30 in the final week of the regular season.
Obviously with Petco, the Padres didn’t have that luxury, as Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. were the only guys with 20+ HR. Jackson Merrill would have gotten there, but he missed nearly 50 games. But, remember, as much as Petco Park suppresses power, the Padres only had a .395 SLG on the road.
Advantage: Cubs
Pitching
Chicago was dealt a huge blow in the final week of the season when presumptive NL Rookie of the Year Cade Horton had to be shut down with a rib fracture. For a pitching staff that has been navigating the season without Justin Steele, Horton’s absence is a big deal. The silver lining is that the Padres graded as a below average offense against lefties. Will Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd be able to take advantage?
Imanaga has not been able to replicate the success of his first MLB season when he had a 2.91 ERA with a 3.38 xERA and a 3.72 FIP. He has a 3.73 ERA with a 4.22 xERA and a 4.87 FIP in his 144.2 innings of work. He also hasn’t pitched well in the second half, allowing 20 HR in 76.2 innings with a .486 SLG against, leading to a 4.70 ERA.
Boyd, who was terrific with a 3.21 ERA, 3.71 xERA, and a 3.65 FIP over 179.2 innings has thrown more innings this season than he did in the previous three seasons combined. He, too, has seen a reversal of fortunes in the second half with a 4.63 ERA over 68 innings pitched. If Game 3 is required, it will be interesting to see if the Cubs go with Colin Rea, who had a terrific September, or Jameson Taillon, who hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since coming back on August 19.
The Padres have really had to cobble things together on the pitching side this season. With Joe Musgrove out for the year, Michael King was limited to 73.1 innings and Yu Darvish only worked 72 frames. Nick Pivetta led the team with 181.2 innings and had fantastic numbers overall, but he doesn’t get to pitch at Petco Park in this series. While Pivetta wasn’t bad on the road, he did post a .172/.228/.274 slash against with a 2.36 ERA and a .223 wOBA against at home. He posted a 3.55 ERA with a .224/.283/.398 slash and a .296 wOBA. He worked 24.1 more innings at home.
So, he’s still been very good on the road, but not elite like he was at home and his home run prowess showed up more on the road. Like I said, home runs are a huge deal in the postseason.
Then there’s Dylan Cease, who had a 5.58 ERA on the road, even though his home and road slash splits were pretty similar. He’s pitched better in the second half than his 4.04 ERA would suggest. The Padres may opt to Frankenstein this thing together, as King returned on September 9, but hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any of his four outings. He gave up eight runs in three innings in one of them and two runs in the other 12.2 innings. I’m not sure how much of an option Darvish is with a 5.17 ERA and a 5.43 FIP in his last 38.1 innings of work.
But, the great equalizer in October is an elite bullpen and the Padres have one. Teams shorten the group of usable relievers at this point in time, so we’ll see the best that both teams have to offer. San Diego has a bunch of dudes who throw very hard and miss a lot of bats. I was actually surprised to see how well the Cubs bullpen stacked up because San Diego has so many swing-and-miss guys, but Chicago was just 0.9% back in the K% department in the second half, even though the Padres have Mason Miller, who has punched out 54.2% of the batters he has faced since the trade.
The Cubs retooled their bullpen on the fly, getting Andrew Kittredge and Taylor Rogers at the Trade Deadline, along with Aaron Civale off of waivers and Michael Soroka in a deal that didn’t work out for him to be a starter, but will maybe work for him as a reliever.
I think I give a slight advantage to the Padres in the pitching department, but it isn’t nearly as big as I presumed it would be.
Advantage: Padres
Defense
I’ll sort of group defense with baserunning and some other factors here. Defensive metrics can be very hard to pin down over the full season, let alone a three-game series. However, it may matter here because the Cubs are +31 in Outs Above Average, Statcast’s primary fielding metric. The Padres are -3. Chicago’s elite outfield defense is a big factor here.
Freddy Fermin does grade slightly better than Carson Kelly as a pitch framer, but Kelly grades better at neutralizing the run game. In fact, he’s seventh in Catcher CS Above Average per Statcast at +5 runs, while Ferman is 16th at +2 runs.
Factoring in the batted ball distribution for these two teams, the Cubs hit way more line drives and fly balls than the Padres (the ballpark does play a factor). The Padres also have the lowest Pull% in baseball, a big reason why they are 29th in Hard Hit% and 27th in Barrel%. I give the edge to the Cubs here pretty clearly, as their infield defense is also superior.
Advantage: Cubs
Padres vs. Cubs Prediction
I do agree with the Cubs being favored and lean that way. Based on my amateur meteorologist skills, it looks like the wind will be blowing in for Game 1 and maybe Game 2 as well, so that is a bit of a bummer as Chicago’s power production is a big advantage on the offensive side. Nevertheless, this is still the better offense and the better defense. San Diego likely does have a pitching edge, but the nature of run scoring in the playoffs lends itself towards the offense better at hitting the long ball. That is Chicago.
Pick: Cubs -125
Other Wild Card Series Previews: Tigers vs. Guardians | Red Sox vs. Yankees | Reds vs. Dodgers
