Opening Day is finally here. The wins, losses, and ties that count for nothing are in the rear view. The rosters are solidified, and 30 teams enter the season hoping to be better than expected. Before the first pitch of the 2026 season, here are 10 bold MLB predictions with the betting angles to back them up.
1. The White Sox are going to beat their season win total by 5-10 games.
Chicago enters 2026 with a sportsbook win total sitting right around 67.5 wins, second-lowest in baseball behind only the Rockies. That number is a product of recency bias, not reality. What it ignores is the unmistakable trajectory of a young team that just posted a 28-37 second half in 2025. That’s real, competitive baseball, and it points directly toward more of the same in 2026.
The South Side has quietly assembled one of the most interesting young cores in the sport. Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel, the twin pillars of the Garrett Crochet trade, figure to take meaningful steps forward as second-year big leaguers. It’s worth noting that Teel opens the year on the injured list with a Grade 2 right hamstring strain suffered during the WBC, though he’s expected back in early April. Add to them the surging Chase Meidroth, the electric late-inning arm Grant Taylor, and the steady presence of Jordan Leasure, and this team has real teeth. PECOTA already projects the White Sox at 69 wins, which is Over the line before a single pitch is thrown.
The big wild card is Munetaka Murakami, who signed a two-year, $34M deal this winter. The 30-year-old set a single-season NPB home run record with 56 bombs and slugged 22 in just 56 games last year before a late-season injury. If his power translates even partially, the Sox offense gets dramatically more dangerous in the middle of the lineup.
New pitching coach Zach Bove came over directly from the Royals’ staff, a franchise known for elite contact-suppression and dramatically lower walk rates. The White Sox’s underlying run differential suggested a 67-win pace last season, meaning they were a one-run-game problem away from hitting that mark. Prospects like Braden Montgomery, Noah Schultz, and Hagen Smith could also debut and contribute later in the season, injecting even more talent into a club whose only direction is up.
I’m on the White Sox Over at a better number, but would still play it at today’s price.
2. The Yankees are going Under their season win total by at least 5 games.
New York enters Opening Day as the betting favorite in the AL East with a win total of 90.5, down a game or two from the opener. That number feels like the market respecting the brand more than the actual 2026 roster. Here’s the cold reality: the Yankees are beginning this season with a middling-at-best rotation and the most reliance on a single player (Aaron Judge) that I can remember.
Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) isn’t expected back until late May or early June. Carlos Rodón (elbow surgery) is a mid-to-late April target at best. Clarke Schmidt (Tommy John) is an August/September candidate who may just slide into the bullpen. That leaves Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and Ryan Weathers to carry the load early, a group that isn’t built to survive a brutal AL East schedule for two-plus months.
The division makes this even scarier. The Blue Jays, the reigning AL champions, return with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease anchoring a rotation that has help on the way (Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber). The Orioles went on a spending spree after a disastrous 75-win 2025, adding Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Ryan Helsley. The Boston Red Sox enter with Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suárez, and Sonny Gray, forming one of the more formidable rotations in recent franchise history. Even the Rays return to pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field after a season spent in their minor league park.
I loved the Yankees win total Under 91.5 and still like it at 90.5. Multiple projection models peg New York closer to 88-91 wins even with a fully healthy rotation, and that assumes Cole and Rodón return on schedule and perform like aces.
3. The MVP races are already over, barring injuries.
Let’s not complicate what isn’t complicated. Aaron Judge in the AL. Shohei Ohtani in the NL. Both are installed as the clear betting favorites, with Judge sitting around +200 to +250 in the AL and Ohtani at -110 to -145 in the NL. Those numbers aren’t lazy chalk. They reflect who actually is the best player in each league.
Judge is chasing history. The Yankees slugger won his third AL MVP in four years in 2025, joining Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, and Yogi Berra in the Yankees’ three-MVP club. He led all of baseball in WAR, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS last season while slashing .331/.457 with a 1.145 OPS and 53 home runs. He has posted an OPS above 1.000 in four straight seasons.
Then there’s Ohtani. The man is already chasing Barry Bonds’ record of four consecutive MVPs (2001-2004). All four of his MVP awards have been unanimous, every single one. He slashed .282/.392/.622 with 55 home runs in 2025 while also posting a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts on the mound. Betting against Ohtani winning the NL MVP means betting on a catastrophic injury or an alien abduction.
This is more of a betting reminder that you’re betting on injury if you bet against Judge and Ohtani.
4. The Braves are going to finish under .500 and might even be sellers at the deadline.
The injury parade in Atlanta has officially crossed from bad luck to something much more alarming. The 2026 Braves aren’t just banged up; they’re broken. Before Opening Day, the club lost Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep to 60-day IL stints following elbow surgery, Ha-Seong Kim to a finger injury suffered when he slipped on ice in the offseason, Joey Wentz to a torn ACL, and Spencer Strider to an oblique issue. Catcher Sean Murphy, who underwent hip surgery last September, is progressing in his recovery and is expected back a few months into the season, though he won’t be available at the start. The roster that takes the field on Opening Day barely resembles the one that was supposed to bounce back from a 76-86 record in 2025.
And then there’s Jurickson Profar. After serving an 80-game PED suspension in 2025, Profar has now received a full 162-game suspension, following a second positive test. Atlanta loses its designated hitter to a self-inflicted wound for the entire season, in a lineup already scrambling to cover multiple holes.
The NL East makes this even more difficult. The Phillies return with Kyle Schwarber (56 home runs in 2025), Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Cristopher Sánchez, Aaron Nola and Jesús Luzardo. They added Adolis Garcia and upgraded their bullpen. The Mets, who already have Juan Soto at the center of their lineup, added Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette this winter and will get a full season of Nolan McLean. Both teams are built to contend. Meanwhile, first-year manager Walt Weiss is inheriting a medical ward.
Atlanta’s missing multiple key contributors to start the year, making the Braves Under worth serious consideration.
5. The Pirates get a wild card spot in the NL.
The last time Pittsburgh made the playoffs was 2015. That drought is about to end. The ingredients are finally in place, and this year, for the first time in a generation, the Pirates look like a team that could steal a wild card and shock the league.
It starts with Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who is posting numbers that belong in a different era. His 1.97 ERA in 2025 was the first sub-2.00 mark for a qualified starting pitcher since Justin Verlander in 2022. He’s the heavy favorite to become the first back-to-back NL Cy Young winner since Jacob deGrom.
Behind Skenes, the rotation has actual depth for the first time in years. Mitch Keller provides veteran stability. Bubba Chandler, ranked the No. 2 right-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline, enters his first full season with an absurd 457 strikeouts in 372 minor league innings on his résumé. Braxton Ashcraft, who posted a 2.71 ERA in 69.2 innings in 2025, adds to the rotation as well. Throw in the pending return of Jared Jones and the versatility of Jose Urquidy and you’ve really got something going there.
The offense was upgraded this winter. Brandon Lowe, acquired from Tampa Bay, hit 31 home runs last season and provides left-handed pop to exploit PNC Park’s short porch. Marcell Ozuna brings a 39-homer ceiling to the DH spot. Ryan O’Hearn provides consistent production and veteran leadership.
And then there’s the biggest card of all: Konnor Griffin. The consensus No. 1 prospect in baseball slashed .333/.415/.527 with 21 home runs and 65 stolen bases across three levels last year. He didn’t break camp with the big club, but he will arrive at some point this season. When he does, Pittsburgh’s offense takes a quantum leap. The kid is generational.
I have all the Pirates love this preseason. Wins Over. Alt Over. To make playoffs. Don Kelly Manager of the Year. And with Konnor Griffin starting in the minors, I’d love to add him ROY if the number drifts enough.
6. The Dodgers could win 103 games if they wanted to, but they won’t want to.
The Dodgers are -650 to win the NL West. Nobody in their division is threatening to change that. The Arizona Diamondbacks remain a step below. The Padres are in flux. The Giants are a work in progress. The Rockies have a win total of 54.5. Los Angeles is going to win the NL West by double digits and everyone knows it.
Their win total is set at 102.5 to 103.5, the highest in baseball for the third straight year. The roster is absurd: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Kyle Tucker (signed in the offseason), and Edwin Díaz closing games. There is no logical argument for why Los Angeles shouldn’t win 105+ regular season games.
But they won’t get there. Not because the talent isn’t there, but because the talent is too valuable to risk. Dave Roberts and the Dodgers front office have made it abundantly clear that the regular season is a means to an end. Rest days are frequent. Stars are managed. The Dodgers haven’t won more than 98 regular season games in either of the last two years, despite fielding the best roster in baseball both times. They peaked at the right moment in both October runs. With a three-peat firmly in their crosshairs, expect the regular season to follow the exact same script.
The Dodgers Under was the first bet I made this offseason. Their approach (the right one, IMO) to the regular season trends toward 96-100 wins, not 103+.
7. The AL Rookie of the Year is going to be somebody in the double digits from an odds perspective.
No disrespect to the names at the top of the board. Trey Yesavage of the Blue Jays opened as the early favorite after a mesmerizing postseason run, sitting around +370, but he’s now dealing with a right shoulder impingement that has kept him off Toronto’s Opening Day roster. That cloud over his availability makes his short odds even less appealing at the moment. Kevin McGonigle, who just broke camp with the Tigers, is sitting around +400 to +550. Carter Jensen, Munetaka Murakami, and Kazuma Okamoto round out the short-money options. All legitimate. All possible.
But this is one of the deepest AL rookie classes in years, and I think the value is further down the board.
Samuel Basallo is the Orioles’ 21-year-old catching prospect who slugged .589 in Triple-A and hit four home runs in a brief 2025 cameo. He’s a legitimate candidate on a playoff-caliber team, with an AAA slash line of .270/.377/.589 that is simply elite. Chase DeLauter is the Guardians outfielder who rarely strikes out (15.8% K-rate in the minors) and has legitimate power from the left side. He has already made Cleveland’s Opening Day roster. Travis Bazzana, the 2024 No. 1 overall pick, could arrive in Cleveland by May if he’s tearing up Triple-A. Colt Emerson of the Mariners and Walker Jenkins of the Twins are two more names to watch where opportunity is real.
Dylan Beavers in Baltimore is a name the Orioles have been high on for two years. Connelly Early posted a stellar 29/4 K/BB over 19 innings for Boston down the stretch in 2025 and should stick in their rotation.
The winner could certainly be a shorter shot, but the AL is absolutely wide open, so don’t be afraid to add a longer shot to your portfolio.
8. Andrés Muñoz leads the majors in saves.
The Seattle Mariners’ closer is quietly one of the three or four most dominant relievers in the sport, and in 2026 he’s set up perfectly to put up a historically elite save total.
Last season, Muñoz posted 38 saves with a 1.73 ERA in 64 appearances, converting saves at a 95% clip. He blew just two opportunities all year. His slider generated 60 strikeouts and held opponents to a .109 batting average, which was 29 points lower than in 2024. The man is simply unhittable.
The ingredients for a massive save total are all present. The Mariners are a strong favorite to win the AL West again. The rotation is anchored by Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo, a group capable of keeping Seattle within one or two runs on most nights. The offense tends to be efficient enough to build small leads rather than blow teams out by five, which means more save opportunities for Muñoz, not fewer. Context is everything here: Edwin Díaz saved 57 games for the 2018 Mariners when Seattle was winning a lot of close games. That same scenario is entirely possible in 2026. Muñoz is 27 years old and entering what should be the peak years of his career.
I have Andres Munoz for most saves in MLB, along with Ryan Helsley in my small, two-man portfolio.
9. Nolan McLean leads the majors in wins.
This is the boldest prediction on this list, and also perhaps the one I love the most considering the long odds. Wins are random. Everyone knows this. But randomness plus the right conditions can produce a wins leader nobody expected, and Nolan McLean has exactly the right setup.
The 24-year-old Mets right-hander is one of the most electric arms in baseball. In his 2025 MLB debut spanning eight starts and 48 innings, he went 5-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts. He became the first pitcher in Mets franchise history to win each of his first four career starts. The stuff is legitimate: a mid-90s heavy sinker, a sweeper with sharp horizontal break, and a curveball generating over 3,200 RPM. He’s been called the closest thing to Jacob deGrom this franchise has produced since deGrom himself.
The setup for wins is ideal. McLean pitches for a Mets team that upgraded significantly this winter, adding Bo Bichette and Freddy Peralta to a roster already built around Juan Soto. That’s a squad projected for 90+ wins. Every time McLean takes the ball, he’ll have an elite offense behind him. The Athletic’s MLB insider Jim Bowden went as far as saying McLean’s potential is so high that he wouldn’t be surprised if McLean is the Mets’ Game 1 postseason starter this October, with Peralta pitching behind him. Peralta won 19 games for Milwaukee last year. That’s a remarkable statement about a 24-year-old in his first real full season.
Here’s the kicker for bettors: McLean is listed at massive odds to lead the majors in wins, coming in around 50/1. The favorites will be Skenes, Yamamoto, and Crochet. But wins follow opportunity and team quality more than pure dominance.
At 50/1, McLean to lead the majors in wins is a legitimate flier worth a sprinkle. A huge season on a 90-win Mets team is absolutely plausible. At these odds, you don’t need it to be likely. You just need it to be possible.
10. The final four teams will be the Dodgers and Mets in the NL, with the Orioles and Red Sox in the AL.
Let’s start in the National League, where the answer is obvious. The Dodgers are going to the postseason. That’s not a prediction; it’s a calendar event. Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Edwin Díaz. This roster has no ceiling and no clear weakness. They will be buyers at the deadline if there’s any conceivable need, and they’ll waltz into October as the favorites they always are.
The Mets are the more interesting call. After missing the playoffs with 83 wins in 2025 despite one of the sport’s highest payrolls, the Mets retooled aggressively around their existing core. Juan Soto, the centerpiece of this lineup entering his second season in Flushing, is now surrounded by better pitching: Freddy Peralta (acquired in a blockbuster trade from Milwaukee), a full season of Nolan McLean, and key additions including Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco. They’ve engineered a roster built for October, not just April. If the pitching holds, and there’s good reason to believe it will, the Mets should be deadline buyers alongside the Dodgers and targeting whatever need emerges by July.
In the American League, the Orioles are the most compelling story. After a brutal 75-87 record during a 2025 season derailed by injuries, Mike Elias went on an unprecedented spending spree. Pete Alonso ($155 million) anchors the lineup. Taylor Ward adds right-handed power. Ryan Helsley moves into the closer role. Kyle Bradish is fully healthy after Tommy John surgery. Trevor Rogers, who posted a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season, is primed to be the ace. Gunnar Henderson dealt with a shoulder impingement all of 2025 and enters 2026 healthy for the first time in two years. When he’s right, he’s a top-10 player in baseball. The Orioles have three former No. 1 overall draft picks in their lineup. The talent is too good to miss the playoffs twice in a row.
The Red Sox complete the picture. Garrett Crochet led all of baseball with 255 strikeouts in 2025 and now heads a rotation that also includes Ranger Suárez (3.59 ERA over four seasons), Sonny Gray, and Brayan Bello. One credible projection has Boston posting the lowest rotation ERA in the AL for the first time since the Pedro Martínez era. The final piece is Roman Anthony. The 21-year-old outfielder batted .292 with a 140 OPS+ in his 2025 debut before an oblique strain ended his season early. He was electric in the World Baseball Classic this spring, in what could be a sign of things to come. A full, healthy season from Anthony could be the difference between a Wild Card and something much more.
Betting the Dodgers is boring, but a bet on any of the other three teams mentioned is going to be a good sweat. It’s finally here! Enjoy MLB this season my friends, I know I will.
More MLB Betting Picks. Grab your copy of the 2026 MLB Betting Guide for just $19.99.
