Red Sox vs. Yankees
Four years isn’t a long playoff drought, but it sure had to feel like one for Boston. The Red Sox vs. Yankees series will bring the two AL East rivals together for the first time in the postseason since the AL Wild Card Game in 2021, right before we had a best-of-three series format. The last time these two played an actual playoff series was 2018. Boston won that year’s ALDS in four games and went on the win the World Series as well.
The Yankees, meanwhile, are back in the postseason since winning last year’s AL pennant before dropping the Fall Classic in five games to the Dodgers. The 2023 season snapped a run of six straight playoff appearances for the Bronx Bombers, but the bigger story is that the franchise with 27 World Championships hasn’t won one since 2009.
For what it’s worth – and it may be something or may be nothing – the Red Sox won nine of the 13 regular season meetings between the two this year and wound up +15 in run differential over those games. In a three-game series, anything can happen and the MLB playoffs are known for their overall volatility.
We’ll also see if New York having to play in this round is a problem, as they lost out on the AL East tiebreaker by dropping eight of 13 to the Blue Jays during the 162-game grind.
Let’s break down the three main phases of the game – offense, pitching, defense – and see if there’s an edge to be had.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Wild Card Odds
Boston Red Sox +135 // New York Yankees -165
Over 2.5 Games (-105/-115)
Odds as of 7:30 a.m. PT from DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday, September 29
Red Sox vs. Yankees Wild Card Series Preview
Offense
As much as we harp on Fenway Park being such a great offensive venue, it didn’t provide a huge boost to the Boston bats relative to what they did on the road. The Red Sox were 48-33 at home and 41-40 on the road, but they only scored four fewer runs away from home and actually allowed 10 more runs in their road games. Still, their run differential points towards what should’ve been a better road record.
And, more interestingly, the Yankees scored 31 more runs away from home than they did at home. Given the short dimensions to the corners, particularly right field, we just assume New York to be much more potent at home than anywhere else. What’s wild is that this is the third straight season that they’ve scored more runs on the road than at home.
While we can all agree that Aaron Judge carries this Yankees offense, he actually had quite a bit more help this season. Trent Grisham and Jazz Chisholm Jr. both hit more than 30 homers. Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Rice combined for 50 more. Cody Bellinger fell just one short of 30. The power production is really important because the nature of offense in the playoffs is very homer-dependent.
New York only hit three homers in the series against the Royals and only 14 runs overall in last year’s ALDS. They hit 10 home runs in the series against Cleveland with 29 total runs over five games. Of course, Juan Soto hit three of those and he isn’t on the roster this season. They do have a much better Grisham to rely on this year.
Judge boasted a 204 wRC+, meaning he was 104% better than an average hitter. Three other players were at least 133 or higher, including Stanton’s 158 wRC+ in just 77 games and 281 plate appearances. Last season, the Yankees had Judge at 220, Soto at 181, and then Chisholm at 133, but he only played 46 games. Stanton was next at 117. So, this year’s Yankees offense is better than last year’s top to bottom, and they did lead the league in wOBA against both RHP and LHP.
Boston’s offense lacks a Judge-type player. Hell, basically 29 or so of the league’s offenses do, considering his closest competition in the wRC+ race was Shohei Ohtani at 172. But, this is a solid Red Sox offense. Rafael Devers (146 wRC+), Roman Anthony (140), Rob Refsnyder (128), and Alex Bregman (125) are the top guys, so not nearly as high-end as the Yankees, but those four games all have double-digit walk rates and Nathaniel Lowe has been a nice Trade Deadline pickup.
The two teams were separated by five stolen bases for the season, but using FanGraphs’ all-encompassing BsR metric, Boston was a much better team on the basepaths than New York. We’ll see how aggressive they are at attempting stolen bases or testing outfield arms, but they may need to be a bit more aggressive to make up the hitting gap, especially on the power front.
Advantage: Yankees
Pitching
Both teams are lucky that this is a three-game series. Rotation depth is not a strength for either one of them and will be something to watch for the team that advances to the best-of-five ALDS. Garrett Crochet and Max Fried are two awesome southpaws who go about things in different ways.
Fried hit a major rough patch in July and August, where he had ERAs north of 5.00 in both of those months. In crunch time, though, Fried pitched to a 1.89 ERA over his final 33.1 innings of the season. In theory, Fried should be a really, really good playoff starter. He is extremely stingy when it comes to the long ball and has a well above average ground ball rate with good K/BB numbers. That’s what you’re looking for. Manufacturing runs is tough in the postseason environment and a high percentage of runs are often scored via the long ball. Fried only allowed 14 this season and never more than there in a month.
Crochet, meanwhile, just has overpowering stuff. His second full season as a starter was a success, as he posted a 2.59 ERA with a 2.92 xERA and a 2.89 FIP. He gave up 24 homers in 205.1 innings, but also had 255 strikeouts against just 46 walks with an above average ground ball rate of his own. He did allow eight of his 24 homers in September, as he may have started to tire and wear down just a little bit in his first 200-inning season.
I’d expect both guys to be good in Game 1. Where this series will be won is probably with everybody else on the pitching side. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello scare me in the playoffs because they are both pitch-to-contact guys with iffy walk rates. Bello is a nearly 50% GB% guy and only allowed 16 homers in his 166.2 innings, but pitching in the playoffs is pressure-packed enough without having to work from the stretch with traffic on the bases.
Both Giolito and Bello had ERAs that were significantly better than their advanced metrics. Giolito had a 3.41 ERA with a 5.00 xERA and a 4.17 FIP, a byproduct of a low K%, high BB% and average to below average contact quality metrics.
I certainly feel more confident in Carlos Rodon, who had a 3.09 ERA with a 3.31 xERA and a 3.78 FIP. That said, Rodon did see a K% drop from 28.2% to 21.9% from the first half to the second half and a BB% spike from 8.6% to 10.3%. Like Fried, he appeared to get back on track in September after some iffy efforts in July and August. I’m guessing human flamethrower Cam Schlittler would get the Game 3 start if we get there.
This series will test the bullpen depth of both teams, though I do think Will Warren could be a very interesting relief option for the Yankees in the series. Remember, bullpen stats overall aren’t nearly as important come playoff time because long relievers and swingmen often don’t pitch. Teams shorten the list of available relievers to use their best as much as possible.
I prefer Boston’s bullpen, just because they have been extremely good at home run suppression this season, while a few Yankees have had some long ball woes. But, the difference between Rodon and Bello/Giolito does make me favor the Yankees in the pitching department. Not by much, but by enough.
Advantage: Yankees
Defense
I’m working in defense along with any other relevant metrics or notes here. Obviously in a three-game sample, anything is possible. The Red Sox have the better defensive metrics overall, but their infield defense has not played well on the whole, posting a -21 Outs Above Average. The Yankees are -5 OAA around the horn.
On the flip side, the Red Sox have the best OF defense in baseball by OAA at +32. The next closest team (Cubs) is +19. The Yankees are -3. So, Boston has some defensive advantages, but they could be mitigated a bit with grounder merchants like Crochet and Bello. Giolito is more of a fly ball guy.
It is also worth noting that Carlos Narvaez is much better at controlling the running game than Austin Wells. Wells, though, is a better pitch framer from this year’s data, but Narvaez is an above average presenter as well.
Advantage: Red Sox
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction
Even in just a three-game series, I do feel like New York’s depth is a little bit too much for Boston. That said, I’m not eager to lay the -165 price on the Yankees, so this won’t be a bet from me. I do think the Yankees advance. But, with Game 1 probably a bit closer to a toss-up than the line indicates (Yankees -130), I could absolutely envision a scenario where Boston takes Game 1 and we see the line flip to Boston as a favorite. I still think they have the edge over Giolito and/or Bello, even if both guys had some success during the regular season.
Pick: Yankees (-160) win series; no official bet
Other Wild Card Series Previews: Tigers vs. Guardians | Padres vs. Cubs | Reds vs. Dodgers
