Padres vs. Dodgers preview
The Dodgers are already off to a 1-0 start and if the go-ahead run in Wednesday’s game is any indication, this could be the year that Lady Luck helps them break through with a World Series title that didn’t come in a quirky COVID season.
Gavin Lux’s ground ball to 1B Jake Cronenworth had the potential to be an inning-ending double play, but instead led to the tiebreaking run in the eighth inning of a 2-2 game. The Dodgers ultimately won 5-2 with a couple extra runs in the inning. They were only 2-of-14 with runners in scoring position, so they had additional chances, but still won the game and will look for a series sweep in Thursday morning’s 6:05 a.m. ET matchup.
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I’ll fire up my daily MLB best bets article on the official Opening Day on Thursday March 28, but didn’t want these Korea games to go by without a preview breaking down the action.
How to Watch Padres vs. Dodgers
How: ESPN
When: Thursday March 21, 6:05 a.m. ET
Where: Seoul, South Korea at the Gocheok Sky Stadium
Padres vs. Dodgers MLB Odds
Dodgers: -192
Padres: +160
Total: 8.5 (-115/-105)
Odds current from DraftKings at time of publish
MLB Odds | Vegas MLB Odds | MLB Betting Splits | Padres Preview | Dodgers Preview
Padres vs. Dodgers Preview
Joe Musgrove gets the call for the Padres in Game No. 2, but his season debut will be overshadowed by the MLB debut of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the best pitching prospect to come out of Japan in quite some time. The 25-year-old right-hander posted a 1.72 ERA with 986 strikeouts in 967.2 innings in the NPB.
Spring Training was not kind to Yamamoto, who allowed nine runs on 15 hits in 9.2 innings with a 14/4 K/BB ratio. One of his starts featured a lot of bad luck and shoddy infield defense in a game that had a major impact on Lux getting moved to 2B and Mookie Betts getting moved to SS.
It was a surprise to see Tyler Glasnow get up to 77 pitches in his first start yesterday. Yamamoto topped out at 41 pitches in his Mar. 13 start against the Mariners, a start where he threw 36 of those 41 pitches for strikes, but allowed four runs on eight hits. Seven of the eight hits were singles in that final tune-up, with a Mitch Garver two-run double with the bases loaded as the big blow.
Musgrove threw 33 pitches over 4.1 innings in his final Spring start against the A’s. He allowed eight runs on five hits over his first 1.2 innings of the exhibition period and then went 16 days between starts before looking a bit sharper against Oakland. He was limited to 97.1 innings last season, but still posted a strong 3.05 ERA with a 3.52 FIP. Pitchers that have great control have a much better chance against the Dodgers because LA has such a patient lineup and draws a lot of walks. Musgrove should be stingy in that department.
Much like last night, though, this will largely be a bullpen game. The Padres aren’t going to push Musgrove any farther than they have to and the Dodgers have a ton invested in Yamamoto. The Padres only had two hits over four innings against Dodgers relievers. Meanwhile, the Dodgers beat up on the Padres pen for four runs and five hits, not to mention the six walks that they drew.
Everybody is trying to get into rhythm at this time of the year. Baseball has a lot of strikeouts nowadays and the teams only combined for 13 last night against 13 walks. Relievers are trying to get up to game speed and so are the starters.
The Dodgers are dealing with a bit of a distraction today, as it was announced on Wednesday afternoon that Shohei Ohtani’s longtime interpreter Ippei Mizuhara had been using Ohtani’s money to bet with an illegal bookmaking operation. There is really nothing normal about this series or starting in South Korea, but this is another layer for the Dodgers as they finish up in Seoul and then return to California to play three more Spring Training games against the Angels, with two at Dodger Stadium and one in Anaheim.
My thought is the same here as it was for the first game. I don’t have an official pick with the unique nature of this series, but the Padres at plus money seem like the better investment. It was a 2-2 game yesterday into the eighth with the big underdog when the unfortunate ball through the glove happened.
Most Dodgers lines early in the season will be a little bit inflated with all their talent and the big offseason. We’ll see if they get off to a good start, but the playing field is a little closer to level early in the year with everybody trying to get into rhythm.
Lean: Padres +160
