Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, October 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 43-31 SU (+14.84 units, ROI: 20.1%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-131 at SEA)
Trend: George Kirby has a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings across three postseason appearances in his career
Trend: Underdogs are on 16-5 (76.2%, +16.33 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 vs DET)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEM
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (5-5, -1.70 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 vs DET)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (6-7 for -0.47 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 vs DET)
MLB Postseason Trends and Systems
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 55-64 SU for -23.85 units (ROI: -20%)
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-131 at SEA)
Coming off wins/losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 61-61 SU (-15.39 units, ROI: -12.6%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+107 vs DET)
Series wins status
– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-80 on run lines (+19.12 units, ROI: 11.4%) since ’15.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+1.5 vs DET)
Stats from the last game trends
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-51 SU (+1.64 units, ROI: 1.5%) surge and 58-49 on run lines (+7.29 units, ROI: 6.8%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
Trends based upon regular-season records
– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 49-46 SU (+14.27 units, ROI: 15%) and 60-35 on run lines (+14.59 units, ROI: 15.4%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has split 93-86-1, Overs have produced a return of +23.87 units, a ROI of 13.3%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-SEA (o/u at 6)
Divisional Round Angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 61-41 SU (+5.21 units, ROI: 5.1%) and 55-47 on run lines (+15.26 units, ROI: 15%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE
– Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 43-31 SU (+14.84 units, ROI: 20.1%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-131 at SEA)
-There have been 30 divisional round game 5’s since ’02, 26 of them had favorites (-110 or higher) and those teams have gone just 12-16 SU (-10.55 units, ROI: -37.7%) & 9-19 (-8.6 units, ROI: -30.7%) on run lines
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1982-1865 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -245.43 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-131 at SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 & 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betitng trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEATTLE +107 (+13 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(925) DETROIT (91-78) at (926) SEATTLE (92-74)
Trend: DET is 0-9 on the run line in the last nine games as favorites
Trend: DET is 34-52 (-22.85 units) on the run line on the road this season
Trends Match (FADE): DETROIT (-1.5 vs SEA)
Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-8 (+7.43 units) in his last 30 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-131 at SEA)
Trend: George Kirby has a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings across three postseason appearances in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 vs DET)
Trend: Over the total is 22-14 (+6.60 units) when SEA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-SEA (o/u at 6)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Trend: Underdogs are on 16-5 (76.2%, +16.33 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+107 vs DET)
Trend: Under the total is 8-2 (80%, +5.80 units) in the last 10 matchups between SEA and DET in Seattle
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-SEA (o/u at 6)
