AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game 2 LCS favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-1.5 vs SEA) 

 

* Game 1 road/neutral LCS favorites are just 2-7 SU (-6.75 units, ROI: -75%) and 0-9 RL (-9 units, ROI: -100%) since 2002
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

Trend: MILWAUKEE has won eight straight versus LAD (+9.75 units) since mid-2024
–  The ROI on this trend is 121.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+128 vs LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (3-2 for +1.13 units in the ’25 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+106 at TOR)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (6-5, -0.70 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+106 at TOR)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (8-7 for +1.91 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+106 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (+128 vs LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, LA DODGERS 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles

– Road favorites of -140 or higher are on a 33-20 SU run since 2001 (+2.54 units, ROI: +4.8%)
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-157 at MIL)

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 84-81 SU (-30.88 units, ROI: -18.7%)
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-129 vs SEA)

Coming off wins/losses

–  Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 63-61 SU (-13.39 units, ROI: -10.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-129 vs SEA)

Series wins status

– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 89-81 on run lines (+20.52 units, ROI: 12.1%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs LAD)

– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 41-44 SU (-24.55 units, ROI: -28.9%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-129 vs SEA)

Stats from the last game trends

– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 52-63 SU (-32.97 units, ROI: -28.7%) and 37-78 on run lines (-32.68 units, ROI: -28.4%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 93-89-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.68 units, an ROI of 11.4%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SEA-TOR (o/u at 7.5), LAD-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

LCS Round Angles

– If you’re a “chalk bettor” and looking for the best line range in which to back LCS favorites, it has been in the -145 to -185 range, as they are 60-25 (70.6%) for +19.07 units since 2000, an ROI of 22.4%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-157 at MIL)

– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 43-38 (+16.21 units, ROI: 20%) since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+106 at TOR), MILWAUKEE (+128 vs LAD)

– Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-59 SU (-22.69 units, ROI: -22.9%).
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-129 vs SEA)

– Game 1 home teams in the LCS round are on a 13-6 SU (+4.99 units, ROI: 26.3%) surge since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+128 vs LAD)

– Game 1 road/neutral LCS favorites are just 2-7 SU (-6.75 units, ROI: -75%) and 0-9 RL (-9 units, ROI: -100%) since 2002
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

– Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 15-7 SU (+8.6 units, ROI: 39.1%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-129 vs SEA)

– Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-15 SU (-9.1 units, ROI: -39.6%) and 6-17 (-12.9, ROI: -56.1%) on run lines since 2013
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

–  Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-26 (-17.4 units, ROI: -54.4%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-1.5 vs SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1972-2512 (44%) for -244.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-157 at MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE +128 (+26) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.8)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(943) SEATTLE (94-74) at (944) TORONTO (97-70)
Trend: SEA is 30-21 (+14.17 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in L4 seasons
Trend: SEA is 4-0 SU vs TOR with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons (4.68 ERA in these four appearances)
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+106 at TOR)

Trend: SEA is 35-48 (-13.42 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at TOR)

Trend: TOR is 56-28 (+18.79 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-129 vs SEA)

(945) LOS ANGELES-NL (98-70) at (946) MILWAUKEE (100-67)
Trend: Over the total is 6-1 (+4.90 units) in LAD’s last seven playoff night games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: LAD is just 43-40 (-16.78 units) in road games this season
Trend: Blake Snell has a 5.79 ERA versus MIL across three appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-157 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 32-19 (+13.22 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+128 vs LAD)

Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Trend: Road teams are on a 9-2 (81.8%, +8.49 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 77.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+106 at TOR) 

Series #2: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: MILWAUKEE has won eight straight versus LAD (+9.75 units) since mid-2024
– The ROI on this trend is 121.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+128 vs LAD)Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

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