The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD) 

* Since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%) in the playoffs
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI) 

* Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 41-26 SU (+18.79 units, ROI: 28%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (2-2 for +0.13 units in the 2025 playoffs). The 2-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in ’25 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (3-1 for +2.27 unit in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CHICAGO CUBS

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Line angles

–  In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI)

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 80-78 SU (-30.34 units, ROI: -19.2%)
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

Coming off wins/losses

– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 57-59 SU (-17.27 units, ROI: -14.9%) since ‘16.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)

Series wins status

–  For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 71-48 SU (+16.11 units, ROI: 13.5%) and 63-56 on run lines (+15.63 units, ROI: 13.1%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

Stats from the last game trends

–  MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 55-47 SU (+5.50 units, ROI: 5.4%) surge and 56-46 on run lines (+8.25 units, ROI: 8.1%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

–  Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 35-60 SU (-16.58 units, ROI: -17.5%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at MIL)

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been VERY good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 87-82-1, Overs have produced a return of +22.55 units, an ROI of 13.3%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAD-PHI (o/u at 7.5), CHC-MIL (o/u at 8)

Divisional Round Angles

–  Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 59-39 SU (+6.09 units, ROI: 6.2%) and 54-44 on run lines (+17.27 units, ROI: 17.6%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

–  Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 41-26 SU (+18.79 units, ROI: 28%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

–  Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-22 SU (+10.25 units, ROI: 18.6%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 30-22 (+5.9 units, ROI: 11.3%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-PHI (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1981-1863 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -243.69 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing

Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4001-3479 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -501.24 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 236-154 in their last 390 tries (+37.67 units, ROI: 9.7%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their five-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a five-game winning streak are just 136-133 (-50.48 units, ROI: -18.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA +109 (+25 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.9)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(945) CHICAGO-NL (94-72) at (946) MILWAUKEE (98-65)
Trend: CHC is just 1-3 SU against MIL with starter Shota Imanaga (5.73 ERA in these four starts as well) in the last two seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 0-6 SU in the last six night games against teams with a winning record
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC)

Trend: MIL is 53-29 (+13.45 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 vs CHC) 

(947) LOS ANGELES-NL (96-69) at (948) PHILADELPHIA (96-67)
Trend: LAD is 40-40 (-19.78 units) on the road this season
Trend: PHI is 55-27 (+11.93 units) at home this season
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD)

Trend: LAD is 2-0 SU against PHI with starter Blake Snell (2.45 ERA in these two starts as well) in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-132 at PHI)

Trend: Under the total is 15-9 (+5.10 units) when PHI is an ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-PHI (o/u at 7.5)

Series #1: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
Trend: PHILADELPHIA is 8-3 (72.7%, +5.24 units) in the last 11 games hosting LAD
– The ROI on this trend is 47.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+109 vs LAD) 

Series #2: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: Over the total is 14-7-1 (66.7%, +6.30 units) in the last 22 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 30%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 8)

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