The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Saturday, October 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* There have been 31 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 27 of them had favorites (-110 or higher), and those teams have gone just 12-17 SU (-11.76 units, ROI: -40.6%) and 9-20 (-9.6 units, ROI: -33.1%) on run lines
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE 

Trend: Over the total is 15-7-1 (68.2%, +7.30 units) in the last 23 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 31.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5) 

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

–  Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 83-80 SU (-30.20 units, ROI: -18.5%)
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC)

Coming off wins/losses

–  Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 62-61 SU (-14.39 units, ROI: -12.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC)

Series wins status

– Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 88-80 on run lines (+20.12 units, ROI: 12%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs CHC)

Stats from the last game trends

– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 51-63 SU (-33.97 units, ROI: -29.8%) and 36-78 on run lines (-34.08 units, ROI: -29.9%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

Totals angles

–  The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 93-87-1, Overs have produced a return of +22.81 units, an ROI of 12.7%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.

System Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

Divisional Round angles

– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 62-41 SU (+6.21 units, ROI: 6%) and 56-47 on run lines (+16.26 units, ROI: 15.8%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE

– There have been 31 divisional round Game 5s since 2002, 27 of them had favorites (-110 or higher), and those teams have gone just 12-17 SU (-11.76 units, ROI: -40.6%) and 9-20 (-9.6 units, ROI: -33.1%) on run lines

–  Of those 29 Game 5 divisional round favorites, 21 of them have been home favorites, and those teams are just 8-13 SU (-10.9 units, ROI: -51.9%).
Systems Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
 I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an unusual 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+118 at MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE -144 (+15 diff)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.4 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CHC-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.4)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spot

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(927) CHICAGO CUBS (96-73) at (928) MILWAUKEE (99-67)
Trend: CHC has lost six straight road games
Trend: MIL is 54-29 (+14.45 units) at HOME this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-144 vs CHC)

Series #1: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: Over the total is 15-7-1 (68.2%, +7.30 units) in the last 23 games of the CHC-MIL series at Milwaukee
– The ROI on this trend is 31.7%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHC-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

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