The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, October 19, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* LCS Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 16-5 outright (+9.88 units, ROI: 47%) & on run lines (+14.35 units, ROI: 68.3%)
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

Trend: SEA is 31-21 (+15.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR) 

Trend: Over the total is 9-1 (90%, +7.90 units) in the last 10 of the SEA-TOR series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 8)

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 85-84 SU (-33.83 units, ROI: -20%)
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 vs SEA)

Coming off wins/losses

– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 64-64 SU (-15.99 units, ROI: -12.5%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 vs SEA)

Series wins status

– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 41-45 SU (-25.78 units, ROI: -30%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 vs SEA)

Stats from the last game trends

– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 52-64 SU (-34.20 units, ROI: -29.5%) and 37-79 on run lines (-33.68 units, ROI: -29%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 40-65 SU (-16.15 units, ROI: -15.4%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR)

Totals angles

– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 97-93-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.05 units, an ROI of 10.6%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 8)

LCS Round angles

– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 47-42 (+16.44 units, ROI: 18.5%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at SEA)

– Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-63 SU (-26.93 units, ROI: -26.1%).
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 vs SEA)

–  The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 26-40 SU (-20.43 units, ROI: -31%) since 2015, including 3-7 since the start of last year.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR) 

–  Game 6s have belonged to home teams since 2006, as they have gone 16-5 outright (+9.88 units, ROI: 47%) and on run lines (+14.35 units, ROI: 68.3%)
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

–  Game 6 favorites have gone just 9-16 SU (-15.02 units, ROI: -60.1%) since 2003 in the LCS round
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 vs SEA) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (4-4 for -0.58 units in the 2025 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (8-7, -1.06 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (10-11 for -0.09 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SEATTLE +108 (+14 diff)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) SEATTLE (96-76) at (904) TORONTO (99-72)
Trend: SEA is 31-21 (+15.18 units) as an underdog with Logan Gilbert in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR)

Trend: TOR is 51-34 (+18.92 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend: SEA is 51-72 (-20.53 units) on the run line vs RH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 vs SEA)

Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Trend: Road teams are on 12-3 (80%, +10.62 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 70.8%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+108 at TOR)

Trend: Over the total is 9-1 (90%, +7.90 units) in the last 10 of the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 79%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-TOR (o/u at 8)

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