The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 16, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL) 

* On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 30-7-1 for +22.3 units, an ROI of 60.2%. This includes 2-0 a year ago.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-SEA (o/u at 7.5) 

Trend: Luis Castillo has a 1.40 ERA in 25.2 innings across five postseason appearances in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (4-3 for +0.78 units in the 2025 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (9-9 for +0.91 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+161 at LAD) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the 2025 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing (1-2 for -1.52 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in preparing for these games is understanding the history and trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line angles

–   Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to ’18 have been very vulnerable, they are just 84-83 SU (-33.47 units, ROI: -20%)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR) 

Coming off losses

–  Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 63-63 SU (-15.63 units, ROI: -12.4%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR)

Series wins status

–  For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 73-50 SU (+14.87 units, ROI: 13.3%) and 64-59 on run lines (+14.11 units, ROI: 11.5%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL), SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR) 

Stats from the last game trends

–  MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored 8 or more runs are on a 56-53 SU (-0.93 units, ROI: -0.9%) surge and 58-51 on run lines (+5.29 units, ROI: 4.9%) since 2014.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 at SEA) 

Totals angles

–  The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 95-91-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.30 units, an ROI of 10.9%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-LAD (o/u at 7.5), TOR-SEA (o/u at 7.5) 

LCS Round angles

– There has been a -52.6% ROI on betting favorites of -190 or higher in the LCS round, as they are just 10-9 for -9.3 units since 2000.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL)

–  Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 45-40 (+16.32 units, ROI: 19.2%) since 2018.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+161 at LAD), TORONTO (+105 at SEA)

–  Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in a LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-61 SU (-24.93 units, ROI: -24.7%).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+161 at LAD)

–  The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 25-39 SU (-20.44 units, ROI: -31.9%) since 2015, including 2-6 since the start of last year.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+105 at SEA)

– Road teams in LCS Game 3 that are down 0-2 in the series have gone just 2-5 since 2006 (-2.89 units, ROI: -41.3%), scoring four total runs in the five losses.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+161 at LAD)

–  Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-17 SU (+14.64 units, ROI: -34.9%) and 29-13 RL (+8.45 units, ROI: 20.1%) run since 2003 in the LCS round. However, both lost last year in both categories.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

– Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 11-28 SU (-22.61 units, ROI: -57.9%) and 12-27 (-19.85 units, ROI: -50.9%) on run lines since 2005
System Match (FADE): TORONTO

– On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 30-7-1 for +22.3 units, an ROI of 60.2%. This includes 2-0 a year ago.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-SEA (o/u at 7.5)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 430-409 (51.3%) for +25.01 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record of 1,982-1,867 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.00 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+105 at SEA) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,974-2,512 (44%) for -242.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+161 at LAD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4003-3482 (53.,5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -504.02 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 325-291 (52.8%) for +20.70 units and an ROI of 3.4% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE +161 (+15 diff) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.4 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIL-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.4)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(957) MILWAUKEE (100-69) at (958) LOS ANGELES-NL (100-70)
Trend: MIL is 35-19 (+7.24 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 at LAD)

Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 41-14 (+8.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL)

Trend: Tyler Glasnow is just 3-8 (-6.05 units) in October starts in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-199 vs MIL)

(955) TORONTO (98-71) at (956) SEATTLE (95-75)
Trend: Max Scherzer has faltered in recent postseasons, having a 8.94 ERA in 14.1 innings since 2022
Trend: Luis Castillo has a 1.40 ERA in 25.2 innings across five postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-127 vs TOR)

Trend: TOR is 38-20 (+8.39 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend: SEA is 48-67 (-19.25 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 at SEA)

Series #2: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Trend: Road teams are on 11-2 (84.6%, +10.61 units) surge in SEA-TOR h2h series
– The ROI on this trend is 81.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+105 at SEA)

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