Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 9, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
MLB Postseason Trends and Systems
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in preparing for these games is understanding the history and trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
– In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 55-63 SU for -22.65 units (ROI: -19.2%)
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-120 at CHC)
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 82-80 SU (-31.20 units, ROI: -19.3%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-137 vs PHI)
Coming off wins/losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 60-61 SU (-16.39 units, ROI: -13.5%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-137 vs PHI)
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 72-49 SU (+15.23 units, ROI: 12.6%) and 64-57 on run lines (+16.11 units, ROI: 13.3%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
Stats from the last game trends
– Teams that are favored in an MLB postseason game after having lost the last outing while scoring two runs or fewer are just 50-63 SU (-34.97 units, ROI: -30.9%) and 36-77 on run lines (-33.08 units, ROI: -29.3%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-50 SU (+2.64 units, ROI: 2.5%) surge and 57-49 on run lines (+6.29 units, ROI: 5.9%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at LAD)
– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 37-62 SU (-16.25 units, ROI: -16.4%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+113 at LAD), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 vs MIL)
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 93-84-1, Overs have produced a return of +26.25 units, an ROI of 14.8%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-LAD (o/u at 8), MIL-CHC (o/u at 7)
Divisional Round Angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 60-41 SU (+4.21 units, ROI: 4.2%) and 55-46 on run lines (+16.26 units, ROI: 16.1%) since ‘15.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs PHI)
– Since 2013, the number seven has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 43-30 SU (+15.84 units, ROI: 21.7%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+113 at LAD)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK SYSTEMS TODAY
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MILWAUKEE
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHILADELPHIA +113 (+10 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(913) MILWAUKEE (99-66) at (914) CHICAGO-NL (95-73)
Trend: MIL is 47-35 (+9.75 units) on the run line on the road this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHC)
Trend: MIL is 0-8 SU in the last eight playoff road games
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-120 at CHC)
(915) PHILADELPHIA (97-68) at (916) LOS ANGELES-NL (97-70)
Trend: Under the total is 44-30-8 (+11.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAD (o/u at 8)
Trend: LAD is 7-0 (+7.00 units) in the last seven day games following up a loss to a NL East opponent
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-137 vs PHI)
Trend: LAD is 26-23 (-12.39 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-137 vs PHI)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend: PHILADELPHIA is 5-1 SU in the last six games visiting LAD
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+113 at LAD)