AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-27 (-18.4 units, ROI: -55.8%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIL)

 

* Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-60 SU (-23.92 units, ROI: -23.9%).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

Trend: The Dodgers are 17-6 (+8.61 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season.
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (7-5, +0.31 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (9-8 for +1.92 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For ‘25, they were an unusual 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%) (0-1, -1.00 unit in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-126 vs. MIL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 UNITS and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall MLB Postseason Trends

Line Angles

— Since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 55-65 SU for -25.05 units (ROI: -20.9%)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)

Coming off wins/losses

— Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 63-62 SU (-14.62 units, ROI: -11.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

Stats from the last game trends

— Teams that won a same-series MLB postseason game after having scored just one or two runs are on a 19-6 SU (+13.62 units, ROI: 54.5%) surge since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)

— Teams playing as underdogs in a postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 38-63 SU (-16.25 units, ROI: -16.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

Totals angles

— The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 94-90-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.53 units, a ROI of 11.2%. Total odds have been heavily shaded toward Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAD-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

LCS Round Angles

— Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, though, going 44-39 (+16.22 units, ROI: 19.5%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

— Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 40-60 SU (-23.92 units, ROI: -23.9%).
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

— Over the last 10 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 15-8 SU (+7.37 units, ROI: 32%).
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

— Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-16 SU (-10.33 units, ROI: -43%) and 6-18 (-13.9, ROI: -57.9%) on run lines since 2013
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE

— Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 6-27 (-18.4 units, ROI: -55.8%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 at MIL)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,973-2,512 (44%) for -243.05 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MILWAUKEE +104 (+10 diff)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) LOS ANGELES-NL (99-70) at (952) MILWAUKEE (100-68)
Trend: LAD is just 44-40 (-15.78 units) in road games this season
Trend: MIL put up five runs in the first inning against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in early July 2025
Trends Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)

Trend: LAD is 17-6 (+8.61 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the ’24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-126 at MIL)

Trend: MIL is 11-17 (-16.08 units) in September/October with starter Freddy Peralta in the last four seasons
Trend: Freddy Peralta has a 4.71 ERA against the Dodgers in four appearances since the start of the ’24 season
Trends Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

Series #2: LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an 8-1 SU surge versus LAD (+8.75 units) since mid-2024
— The ROI on this trend is 97.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 vs. LAD)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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