Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
WORLD SERIES system #7: Game 4s have been the most clearly dominated by the road teams, 14-6 since 2004 (+8.9 units, 44.5% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+178 at LAD)
* In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs TOR)
MLB Postseason Trends and Systems
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trend
Series wins status
— For teams leading in a series, home-field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 75-52 SU (+14.51 units, ROI: 11.4%) and 66-61 on run lines (+14.04 units, ROI: 11.1%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
Stats from last game trends
— Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 40-68 SU (-19.15 units, ROI: -17.7%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+178 at LAD)
Totals angles
— The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 100-95-1, Overs have produced a return of +20.97 units, an ROI of 10.8%. Total odds have been heavily shaded toward Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAD (o/u at 8)
MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, so why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently?
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home-field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 21-30 slide in the last 51 opportunities dating to 2016 (-17.42 units, -34.2% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled putting back-to-back wins together recently, going 11-24 in the game following up a WS win (-17.85 units, -51% ROI)
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
WORLD SERIES system #7:
World Series Game 4s have been the most clearly dominated by the road teams, 14-6 since 2004 (+8.9 units, 44.5% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+178 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,006-3,483 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.02 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 367-181 (66.9%) for +53.99 units and an ROI of 9.9%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(927) TORONTO (102-74) at (928) LOS ANGELES-NL (104-71)
Trend: TOR was the best team in MLB this season in night games (65-40, +20.51 units)
Trend: Shane Bieber’s teams are 14-3 (+10.73 units) vs. NL West/Central opponents
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+178 at LAD)
Trend: LAD is 9-1 SU (+7.15 units) in their last 10 home playoff games
Trend: LAD has won 10 straight games (+10.00 units) on the second half of a back-to-back
Trends Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
Trend: TOR is on a 6-0 Over run in their last six road games versus NL opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAD (o/u at 8)
MLB Bullpen System
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEM
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (8-10, -4.55 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units (3-1 for +1.06 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was ’23 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen-rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In ’25, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season (1-0 for +1.00 unit in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s game as of 10 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TORONTO +178 (+27 diff)
Top head-to-head series trend
Series #1: Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers
Trend: LA DODGERS are 6-3 (+1.50 units) versus Toronto in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-220 vs. TOR)
