The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in playoff series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-79 on run lines (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. SEA)

Trend: Favorites are just 27-44 (38%, -34.79 units) in the last 71 games between the Blue Jays and the Yankees
Trend: Carlos Rodon has a 6.20 ERA in his seven postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (4-4, -1.50 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-137 at DET)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Rating played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (6-5 for +1.62 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In studying teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks in 2023, I tracked that those teams went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (4-1 for +3.27 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 13:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups went 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 UNITS and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high-bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, NY YANKEES

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history, and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Line Angles

— In that same span since 2001, shorter road favorites of less than -140 have gone 54-62 SU for -22.53 units (ROI: -19.4%)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-137 at DET)

— Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 81-79 SU (-30.46 units, ROI: -19%)
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

Coming off wins/losses

— Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 57-60 SU (-18.39 units, ROI: -15.7%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA), NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

Series wins status

— Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 87-79 on run lines (+20.61 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+1.5 vs. SEA)

— Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 39-43 SU (-24.81 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

Stats from the last game trends

— MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-47 SU (+6.50 units, ROI: 6.3%) surge and 57-46 on run lines (+9.73 units, ROI: 9.4%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO

— Power surges don’t tend to last in for big underdogs in the MLB postseason, as teams playing as dogs of +130 or more coming off a game in which they hit three home runs or more are just 8-30 SU (-16.72 units, ROI: -44%) and 13-25 on run lines (-19.3 units, ROI: -50.8%) in the follow up game since 2002.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (*if they fall into this line range, +129 currently*)

Trends based on regular-season records

— In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-45 SU (+14.27 units, ROI: 15.3%) and 59-34 on run lines (+15.08 units, ROI: 16.2%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

Totals angles

— The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone on totals is split 88-83-1. Overs have produced a return of +22.44 units, an ROI of 13.1%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5), TOR-NYY (o/u at 7.5)

Divisional Round Angles

— Home-field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or it’s even. Those hosts are on a surge of 60-39 SU (+7.09 units, ROI: 7.2%) and 55-44 on run lines (+18.75 units, ROI: 18.9%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing 8 different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,982-1,863 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -242.69 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)

Home teams that did score well in the last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4002-3479 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -500.24 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 137-133 (-49.48 units, ROI: -18.3%) in the next game since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TOR-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) TORONTO (96-68) at (902) NEW YORK-AL (96-71)
Trend: Under the total has gone 14-2 (+11.90 units) in last 16 games when NYY was favored vs. divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: NYY is 1-4 SU against Toronto in the last two seasons with starter Carlos Rodon (6.72 ERA in these five games)
Trend: Carlos Rodon has a 6.20 ERA in his seven postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

Trend: TOR is 25-16 (+9.85 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+129 at NYY)

(903) SEATTLE (91-73) at (904) DETROIT (90-77)
Trend: SEA is 33-47 (-14.64 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 at DET)

Trend: Jack Flaherty has a 6.53 ERA in his five postseason appearances over the last two seasons
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA)

Trend: Over the total is 8-1 (+6.90 units) in the last nine Tigers home games against AL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-DET (o/u at 7.5)

Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Trend: Underdogs are on a 15-4 (78.9%, +16.33 units) surge in SEA-DET series
— The ROI on this trend is 85.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+113 vs. SEA)

Series #2: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Trend: Favorites are just 27-44 (38%, -34.79 units) in the last 71 games between Toronto and the NY Yankees
— The ROI on this trend is -49%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-158 vs. TOR)

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