Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Road teams are on 10-2 (83.3%, +9.50 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 79.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
* Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 38-64 SU (-17.26 units, ROI: -16.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
* Since the start of 2024, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 396-266 for +83.41 units in the regular season (4-2 for +2.14 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
MLB Postseason Trends and Systems
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series, featuring progressively more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike any other sport, the huge 162-game regular season schedule enhances the stakes of each MLB postseason game tremendously. As such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 84-82 SU (-32.11 units, ROI: -19.3%)
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 73-49 SU (+16.23 units, ROI: 13.3%) and 64-58 on run lines (+15.11 units, ROI: 12.4%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE
Stats from the last game trends
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-52 SU (+0.43 units, ROI: 0.4%) surge and 58-50 on run lines (+6.29 units, ROI: 5.8%) since ’14.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE
– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 38-64 SU (-17.26 units, ROI: -16.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 94-91-1, Overs have produced a return of +19.30 units, an ROI of 10.4%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): TOR-SEA (o/u at 7)
LCS Round angles
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 44-40 (+15.21 units, ROI: 18.1%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 25-38 SU (-19.08 units, ROI: -30.3%) since 2015, including 2-5 last year.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
– Road teams in LCS Game 3’s that are down 0-2 in the series have gone just 1-5 since ’06 (-4 units, ROI: -66.7%), scoring four total runs in the five losses.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1982-1866 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -246.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4003-3481 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -502.66 units and a ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0% (4-2 for +2.14 units in the 2025 playoffs). The two-year regular season record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEM
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4% (7-6, -0.70 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in ’25 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (4-4 for -0.70 units in the ’25 playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume game,s so bettors have lost big in October.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SEATTLE -132 (projections have SEA -144)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) TORONTO (97-71) at (954) SEATTLE (95-74)
Trend: Shane Bieber has a 5.23 ERA in 20.2 innings across four postseason appearances in his career
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
Trend: SEA is 11-6 (+3.37 units) as a short home favorite (between -111 and -140) with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend: George Kirby has a 1.50 ERA in 18 innings across four postseason appearances in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-132 vs TOR)
Trend: TOR is 37-20 (+7.39 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend: SEA is 48-66 (-18.25 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 at SEA)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #1: Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Trend: Road teams are on 10-2 (83.3%, +9.50 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 79.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+109 at SEA)
