Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, October 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored seven runs or more, teams are 43-27 SU (+19.79 units, ROI: 28.3%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-106 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+101 at CHC), NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)
* For teams leading in a playoff series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 72-48 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 14.3%) and 64-56 on run lines (+17.11 units, ROI: 14.3%) since ’13.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
Trend: PHI is 2-7 (-5.22 units) vs LA Dodgers with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+152 at LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching (0-1, -1.05 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-106 at DET)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2% (6-6 for +0.62 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-106 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+101 at CHC)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025 and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units and an ROI of 5.2% (4-2 for +2.27 units in the 2025 playoffs).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+101 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-187 vs PHI)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): SEATTLE, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line angles
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable, they are just 82-79 SU (-29.46 units, ROI: -18.3%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-115 vs SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 vs MIL), NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)
Coming off wins/losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 58-61 SU (-18.39 units, ROI: -15.4%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-115 vs SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 vs MIL)
Series wins status
– For teams leading in a series, home field advantage has meant quite a lot, as these hosts are 72-48 SU (+17.11 units, ROI: 14.3%) and 64-56 on run lines (+17.11 units, ROI: 14.3%) since 2013.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 40-43 SU (-23.81 units, ROI: -28.7%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-115 vs SEA), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 vs MIL), NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)
Stats from the last game trends
– MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 56-48 SU (+5.50 units, ROI: 5.3%) surge and 57-47 on run lines (+8.29 units, ROI: 8%) since 2014.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, NY YANKEES
– Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series’ prior game are just 35-61 SU (-17.58 units, ROI: -18.3%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+101 at CHC), TORONTO (+143 at NYY)
Trends based upon regular-season records
– In the last four playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 48-46 SU (+13.27 units, ROI: 14.1%) and 59-35 on run lines (+13.59 units, ROI: 14.5%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total is split 90-83-1, Overs have produced a return of +24.44 units, an ROI of 14.1%. Total odds have been heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Matches: PLAY OVER IN ALL FOUR GAMES
Divisional Round angles
– Home field advantage has been particularly prevalent in the divisional series when the host is leading in the series or even. Those hosts are on a surge of 60-40 SU (+6.09 units, ROI: 6.1%) and 55-45 on run lines (+17.26 units, ROI: 17.3%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
– Since 2013, the number 7 has been key in terms of runs scored for teams. In divisional round games following a same series game in which they scored 7 runs or more, teams are 43-27 SU (+19.79 units, ROI: 28.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-106 at DET), MILWAUKEE (+101 at CHC), NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)
– Since 2014, teams have bounced back well from a divisional round game in which their bullpen blew a save, going 33-23 SU (+9.13 units, ROI: 16.3%). These follow-up games also tend to go Under on totals, 31-22 (+6.9 units, ROI: 13%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+143 at NYY)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1982-1864 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -243.69 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 4003-3479 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -499.24 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-175 vs TOR)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 237-154 in their last 391 tries (+38.67 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-187 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 137-134 (-50.48 units, ROI: -18.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-187 vs PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TORONTO +143 (+16 diff), MILWAUKEE +101 (+15)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PHI-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(905) TORONTO (96-69) at (906) NEW YORK-AL (97-71)
Trend: TOR is 59-36 (+18.54 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+143 at NYY)
Trend: Under the total has gone 14-3 (+10.80 units) in the last 17 games where NYY was favored vs divisional foes
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(907) SEATTLE (92-73) at (908) DETROIT (90-78)
Trend: SEA is 10-3 (+6.77 units) vs AL Central teams with starter Bryce Miller since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-106 at DET)
Trend: DET is 16-8 (+7.74 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-115 vs SEA)
Trend: DET is 0-9 on the run line in the last nine games as favorites
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+1.5 vs SEA)
Trend: Over the total is 9-1 (+7.90 units) in the last 10 Tigers’ home games against AL West opponents
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-DET (o/u at 8.5)
(909) MILWAUKEE (99-65) at (910) CHICAGO-NL (94-73)
Trend: Under the total is 7-0 (+7.00 units) in the last seven CHC playoff home games as favorites
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHC (o/u at 6.5)
Trend: MIL is 47-34 (+10.75 units) on the run line on the road this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at CHC)
(911) PHILADELPHIA (96-68) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (97-69)
Trend: PHI is 12-27 (-13.88 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trend: PHI is 2-7 (-5.22 units) vs LA Dodgers with starter Aaron Nola in the last six seasons
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+152 at LAD)
Trend: Under the total is 44-29-8 (+12.10 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAD (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Trend: Underdogs are on 15-5 (75%, +15.33 units) surge in the SEA-DET series
– The ROI on this trend is 76.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-106 at DET)
Series #3: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees
Trend: Favorites are just 28-44 (38.9%, -33.79 units) in the last 72 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
