The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Under the total is 16-6 (+9.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TOR (o/u at 9) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 370-317 but for -79.82 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 vs PIT), DETROIT (-149 vs MIA), BALTIMORE (-126 vs SF), ATLANTA (-136 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-143 vs HOU)

Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 23-5 (82.1%, +16.03 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 57.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-181 vs CWS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 25-13 start for +5.74 units and an ROI of +15.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs PIT), PHILADELPHIA (-186 vs AZ), KANSAS CITY (-181 vs CWS), SEATTLE (-143 vs HOU), BOSTON (-143 at STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are at 7-5 for +1.36 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+123 at DET), TEXAS (+194 at LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 28-16 start for +3.74 units.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-240 vs TEX)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 11-17 start for +1.16 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+169 at MIL), HOUSTON (+119 at SEA), ST LOUIS (+119 vs BOS)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The 2026 record so far is 7-1 for +4.57 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-240 vs TEX)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 13-8 but for -7.48 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-207 vs WSH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a reasonable start, 25-28 for +0.30 units.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+123 at DET)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the ’23-‘25 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For ‘26, they are off to a 12-12 start for +1.99 units and an ROI of +8.3%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 3-8 for -5.45 units and an ROI of -49.5%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ARIZONA (+153 at PHI), ATHLETICS (+129 at NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at BAL), CLEVELAND (+113 at ATL), ST LOUIS (+119 vs BOS)
3+ games – MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR), TEXAS (+194 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of ‘25, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’206, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 14-7 for +10.45 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-149 vs MIA), HOUSTON (+119 at SEA)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The ’26 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 5-9 for -7.10 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-181 vs CWS), SEATTLE (-143 vs HOU)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 441-355 for +30.92 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR), BALTIMORE (-126 vs SF), TEXAS (+194 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 134-171 for -34.23 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+119 vs NYY)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 370-317 but for -79.82 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 vs PIT), DETROIT (-149 vs MIA), BALTIMORE (-126 vs SF), ATLANTA (-136 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-143 vs HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored 6 or more runs in a win boast a solid 401-340 record for +58.58 units and an ROI of 7.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+153 at PHI), MIAMI (+123 at DET), CLEVELAND (+113 at ATL) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2002-1887 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.98 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at ATL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2001-2552 (43.9%) for -254.08 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, HOUSTON, LA ANGELS, WASHINGTON, ATHLETICS, CHICAGO WHITE SOX 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4046-3517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -509.36 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN DIEGO 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 599-495 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +32.00 units, for an ROI of 2.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE, TAMPA BAY 

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 83-124 SU (-20.38 units) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+119 at TOR)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 66-39 SU for +12.75 units (ROI: 12.1%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-149 at STL)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 450-510 SU but for +69.67 units (ROI: 7.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 157-164 SU for +41.82 units in the last 321 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+119 at CHC), LA ANGELS (+153 at CIN), HOUSTON (+119 at SEA)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 269-287 run (+6.24 units, ROI: 1.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-149 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-143 vs HOU)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS +194 (+19 diff), ARIZONA +153 (+18), LA ANGELS +153 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO CUBS -149 (+21 diff), ATLANTA -136 (+17)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-SEA OVER 7.5 (+1.0), PIT-CHC OVER 6.5 (+0.6), 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: MIA-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), SF-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) PITTSBURGH (7-5) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (6-6)
Trend: CHC is 19-7 (+7.86 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs PIT) 

(957) COLORADO (6-7) at (958) SAN DIEGO (7-6)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 37-15 (+8.03 units) against NL West competition since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-186 vs COL) 

(959) MINNESOTA (7-6) at (960) TORONTO (5-7)
Trend: Under the total is 16-6 (+9.29 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TOR (o/u at 9) 

(967) MIAMI (8-5) at (968) DETROIT (4-9)
Trend: Chris Paddack is 3-10 (-6.17 units) as a +105 or more road underdog since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+123 at DET)

(975) SAN FRANCISCO (5-8) at (976) BALTIMORE (6-6)
Trend: Shane Baz is 20-10 (+10.25 units) within the -130 to +125 line range since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-126 vs SF)

(979) TEXAS (7-5) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (9-3)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 45-14 (+12.34 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-240 vs TEX)

Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Thu 4/9-Sun 4/12
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 23-5 (82.1%, +16.03 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 57.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-181 vs CWS) 

Series #18: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs, Fri 4/10-Sun 4/12
Trend: Pittsburgh is 11-24 (31.4%, -9.92 units) in their last 35 games at Wrigley Field
– The ROI on this trend is -28.3%
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+119 at CHC)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, CINCINNATI, NY METS, BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, BOSTON, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, TORONTO, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, DETROIT, CINCINNATI, TORONTO, NY METS, BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, KANSAS CITY, MILWAUKEE, SEATTLE, SAN DIEGO, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAA-CIN, MIN-TOR

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday 4/13)

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