Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, April 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 211-244 SU but for +43.00 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+169 vs PHI)
Trend: ATL is 1-10 (-15.98 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-115 at AZ)
SAN DIEGO momentum after divisional series with San Francisco: 23-12 (65.7%) +12.60 units, ROI: 36% in follow-up game
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+102 at BOS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 19-10 (+2.98 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-181 vs STL), NY YANKEES (-181 vs MIA), SEATTLE (-163 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-110 vs HOU), NY METS (-136 at SF)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 14-10 (+1.07 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-171 vs CIN), SEATTLE (-163 at LAA), NY METS (-136 at SF)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 5-8 (-2.23 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+218 vs LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+169 vs TOR), COLORADO (+169 vs PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The ’25 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 5-1 (+2.57 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-207 at COL), LA DODGERS (-271 at WSH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 8-4 (-2.93 units).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-207 at CWS)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the ’23-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 9-3 (+0.87 units).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-207 at COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 6-13 (-5.23 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+102 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (-110 at MIN), CLEVELAND (-102 vs CHC), PITTSBURGH (+104 vs BAL), ATHLETICS (-102 vs HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For 2025, they were an uncustomary 220-211 for +18.9 units (ROI 4.4%). For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 4-6 (-1.64 units). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so the 2025 results of 107-100 for +3.03 units were disappointing. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 2-2 (+0.09 units).
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – ST LOUIS (+149 at DET), MIAMI (+149 at NYY)
3+ games – HOUSTON (-110 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026. For the 2026 season, these teams have started unusually fast with a record of 7-1 (+8.38 units).
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-122 vs SD)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Although it lost -5.28 units in 2025, better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. For the 2026 season, these teams have a record of 1-3 (-2.99 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-181 vs STL), NY METS (-136 at SF)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 438-350 for +33.30 units and an ROI of 4.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-181 vs STL), BOSTON (-122 vs SD)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 208-158 for +15.00 units and an ROI of 4.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-122 at CLE), BALTIMORE (-122 at PIT), MILWAUKEE (-112 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 134-167 for -30.18 units and an ROI of -10% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-108 vs MIL)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 366-315 but for -80.67 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-122 vs SD), TEXAS (-171 vs CIN)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 396-333 record for +60.82 units and an ROI of 8.3% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-122 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (-207 at COL), MIAMI (+149 at NYY), MILWAUKEE (-112 at KC), HOUSTON (-110 at ATH), CHICAGO CUBS (-122 at CLE), SAN DIEGO (+102 at BOS)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 432-411 (51.2%) for +24.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-105 vs ATL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1993-1877 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.58 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+149 at NYY), ATLANTA (-115 at AZ)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1988-2534 (44%) for -245.13 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-271 at WSH), ST LOUIS (+149 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-110 at MIN), TORONTO (-207 at CWS), NY METS (-136 at SF)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 4027-3497 (53.5%) but they have been a loser for bettors at -504.59 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+102 vs BAL), WASHINGTON (+218 vs LAD), NY YANKEES (-181 vs WSH), MINNESOTA (-110 vs TB), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs NYM)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 593-487 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.44 units, for an ROI of 3.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+169 vs TOR), KANSAS CITY (-108 vs MIL), LA ANGELS (+139 vs SEA)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 179-209 SU record for +42.02 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-105 vs ATL)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 39-137 SU for -44.00 units in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+218 vs LAD)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 64-35 SU for +16.10 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR TAMPA BAY at MIN (-110 CURRENTLY)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 211-244 SU but for +43.00 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+169 vs PHI)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 443-504 SU but for +67.15 units since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+141 at TEX)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting on teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 266-283 run (+7.50 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-181 vs STL)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 139-137 (-52.68 units, ROI: -19.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-110 at ATH)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: WASHINGTON +218 (+47 diff), COLORADO +169 (+23), PITTSBURGH +104 (+21), MINNESOTA -110 (+20)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATLANTA -115 (+22)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TB-MIN OVER 7.5 (+1.0), CHC-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.9), TOR-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.8), STL-DET OVER 7.5 (+0.5), MIA-NYY OVER 7.5 (+0.5), CIN-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: HOU-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-1.1), BAL-PIT UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) PHILADELPHIA (3-3) at (904) COLORADO (2-4)
Trend: PHI is 7-8 (-9.45 units) as heavy road favorites (-180 or higher) with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-207 at COL)
(905) ATLANTA (5-2) at (906) ARIZONA (3-4)
Trend: ATL is 1-10 (-15.98 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-115 at AZ)
(909) TAMPA BAY (2-4) at (910) MINNESOTA (2-4)
Trend: MIN is 7-16 (-11.55 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-110 vs TB)
(911) SEATTLE (3-4) at (912) LOS ANGELES-AL (3-4)
Trend: LAA is 5-2 (+5.20 units) in the last seven games vs Seattle with starter Reid Detmers
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+135 vs SEA)
(915) ST LOUIS (4-2) at (916) DETROIT (2-4)
Trend: Framber Valdez is 12-4 (+3.30 units) as a home day game favorite of -150 or higher in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-181 vs STL)
(925) BALTIMORE (3-3) at (926) PITTSBURGH (3-3)
Trend: BAL is 14-5 (+8.55 units) against NL teams with a start by Kyle Bradish in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-126 at PIT)
(929) TORONTO (4-2) at (930) CHICAGO-AL (1-5)
Trend: Dylan Cease is 13-4 (+4.83 units) in the last 6+ seasons as a large road favorite (-170 or higher)
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-207 at CWS)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the ‘24 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH, MILWAUKEE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BOSTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on HOME TEAMS in MARCH/APRIL of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NY YANKEES, BOSTON, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, PITTSBURGH
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
SAN DIEGO
Momentum after series vs. SAN FRANCISCO: 23-12 (65.7%) +12.60 units, ROI: 36%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+102 at BOS)
