The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: NYM is 18-0 (+18.00 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-149 vs SF) 

Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 340-171 (66.5%) for +45.40 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-121 vs AZ) 

Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 31-12 (72.1%, +21.78 units) in the last 43 meetings
– The ROI on this trend is 50.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-126 vs MIN)

Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 218-144 in their last 362 tries (+33.40 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 143-90 for +40.77 units, and an ROI of 17.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at LAA), ATHLETICS (-126 vs AZ) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 43-40 for -6.81 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -8.2% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-151 vs DET), TORONTO (-157 vs KC), MINNESOTA (+104 at CLE)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 121-155 for -36.64 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.3%. fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+112 vs HOU)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 257-132 for +45.91 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.8%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-137 at BOS), NY METS (-149 vs SF), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL), SEATTLE (-192 vs TEX)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 104-196 for -33.50 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.2%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+127 vs MIL), COLORADO (+113 vs PIT) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 304-308 for +41.40 units, ROI +6.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+124 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+129 at TOR), MIAMI (+144 vs NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at LAA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 144-151 for -3.05 units (ROI -1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-71, +0.08 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – BOSTON (+112 vs HOU)
3-games – NY YANKEES (-176 at MIA) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 167-123 for +18.12 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+124 at PHI), PITTSBURGH (-137 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): HOUSTON, ATHLETICS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, LA DODGERS, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-COL, CWS-LAA

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 401-311 for +49.37 units and an ROI of 6.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+128 at PHI), NY YANKEES (-176 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 323-283 but for -78.98 units and an ROI of -13% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs DET), TORONTO (-157 vs KC), NY METS (-144 vs SF) 

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 358-299 record for +57.19 units and an ROI of 8.7% over the last three seasons, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-176 at MIA), DETROIT (+128 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at LAA), HOUSTON (-137 at BOS)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1875-1778 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.44 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+114 at CIN), CINCINNATI (-138 vs ATL), BOSTON (+112 vs HOU), CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs BAL), TORONTO (-157 vs KC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 at LAA), HOUSTON (-137 at BOS) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,870-2,373 (44.1%) for -209.13 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+104 at CLE), KANSAS CITY (+129 at TOR), SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at NYM), ARIZONA (+100 at ATH), PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL), TEXAS (+154 at SEA), ST LOUIS (+154 at SD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3796-3327 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.35 units and an ROI of -7.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-138 vs ATL), CHICAGO CUBS (-157 vs BAL), TORONTO (-157 vs KC), BOSTON (+112 vs HOU), CLEVELAND (-126 vs MIN), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL), ATHLETICS (-121 vs AZ), SEATTLE (-189 vs TEX) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 558-469 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.48 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+119 vs PIT), WASHINGTON (+127 vs MIL) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 340-171 (66.5%) for +45.40 units and an ROI of 8.9%!
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-121 vs AZ) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 311-275 (53.1%) for +21.30 units and an ROI of 3.6% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs DET)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 241-250 run (+15.78 units, ROI: 3.2%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+118 at NYM) 

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 71-57 (+19.51 units, ROI: 15.2%) in their last 128 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 165-128 (+17.43 units, ROI: 5.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 218-144 in their last 362 tries (+33.40 units, ROI: 9.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TEXAS +156 (+26 diff), MIAMI +144 (+25), ARIZONA +104 (+19)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH -143 (+50 diff), MILWAUKEE -155 (+31), LA ANGELS -137 (+18) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: AZ-ATH OVER 9.5 (+0.7), MIL-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.6), DET-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.5), HOU-BOS OVER 8 (+0.5), MIN-CLE OVER 7 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CWS-LAA UNDER 9.5 (-1.4), ATL-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), STL-SD UNDER 7.5 (-0.5) 

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) ATLANTA (46-62) at (952) CINCINNATI (57-53)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (20-36 record, -26.18 units)
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+114 at CIN)

Trend: Brady Singer is 19-7 (+12.16 units) in the last 26 home day games
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-138 vs ATL) 

(953) MILWAUKEE (64-44) at (954) WASHINGTON (44-64)
Trend: Over the total is 13-6-1 (+6.64 units) in night games against teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Mitchell Parker since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-WSH (o/u at 8.5)

(955) SAN FRANCISCO (54-55) at (956) NEW YORK-NL (62-47)
Trend: SF is 13-4 (+9.99 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend: SF is 5-0 (+6.55 units) in road night games with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+122 at NYM)

Trend: NYM is 18-0 (+18.00 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-149 vs SF) 

(957) PITTSBURGH (47-62) at (958) COLORADO (28-80)
Trend: Andrew Heaney is 23-8 (+11.74 units) on the road for a line range of -102 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-145 at COL)

Trend: COL is 3-26 (-20.90 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+119 vs PIT) 

(959) ST LOUIS (55-55) at (960) SAN DIEGO (60-49)
Trend: Under the total is 25-11 (+12.90 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-SD (o/u at 7.5) 

(961) KANSAS CITY (54-55) at (962) TORONTO (64-46)
Trend: KC is 2-10 (-6.39 units) as a +125 or more ROAD underdog with starter Michael Wacha since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+129 at TOR)

Trend: Kevin Gausman is 13-22 (-22.45 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-157 vs KC) 

(963) MINNESOTA (51-57) at (964) CLEVELAND (54-54)
Trend: MIN is 7-0 (+7.06 units) with starter Joe Ryan vs .500 teams since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+104 at CLE)

(969) TEXAS (57-53) at (970) SEATTLE (58-52)
Trend: TEX is 4-10 (-6.14 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+156 at SEA) 

(971) BALTIMORE (50-59) at (972) CHICAGO-NL (63-45)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 17-30 (-6.71 units) on the road since 2020
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 14-35 (-17.38 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trends Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+128 at CHC)

(973) DETROIT (64-46) at (974) PHILADELPHIA (61-47)
Trend: PHI is 49-29 (+8.41 units) vs RH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs DET) 

(975) NEW YORK-AL (60-49) at (976) MIAMI (52-55)
Trend: Carlos Rodon is 6-14 (-15.93 units) in his last 20 road starts vs NL teams
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-176 at MIA)

(977) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-46) at (978) TAMPA BAY (54-56)
Trend: TB is 16-5 (+11.47 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+110 vs LAD) 

Series #6: Minnesota at Cleveland, Fri 8/1-Sun 8/3
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 31-12 (72.1%, +21.78 units) in the last 43 meetings
– The ROI on this trend is 50.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-126 vs MIN)

Series #14: St Louis at San Diego, Fri 8/1-Sun 8/3
Trend: Home teams are 18-8 (69.2%, +8.16 units) in the last 26 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 31.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-189 vs STL)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

BALTIMORE    
Letdown after series vs. TORONTO: 11-20 (35.5%) -8.23 units, ROI: -26.5%    
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+128 at CHC) 

NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 25-9 (73.5%) +11.68 units, ROI: 34.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-176 at MIA)

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